McCain Palin: From Bounce to Blurp

When a ball is dropped from any reasonable height and strikes a hard surface, it tends to bounce back upward. If you try dropping the same ball into a pool of tar, it tends to make a “blurp” sort of noise and then begins to slowly sink beneath the surface. My friend Ron Beasley over at Newshoggers has a brief study on how the post-convention McCain-Palin bounce may be turning into a blurp.

Obama has taken the lead in most of the polls again – The Gallup Daily has him up by two again. I really don’t think that McCain got a convention bounce it was all the novelty Palin bounce. Over at Hot Air Allahpundit wonders if Palin is becoming “a bit of an anchor”. Indeed her favorablity has plummeted in the last week.

The last bit is interesting. Some have attributed the recent changes to the normal post-convention bounce which most campaigns receive, but in this topsy-turvy season, many were giving credit to the surprise pick of Sarah Palin. After an initial introduction where nobody knew what to make of her, it seems that her favorability indeed shot through the roof. Now, however, the bloom may be quickly coming off the rose. The next chart which Ron supplies shows the arc of Palin’s net favorability ratings in the polls. (”Net” in this case meaning the difference between the “view favorably” and “view unfavorably” ratings.)

Sept. 11: +17 (day the Gibson interview airs)

Sept. 12: +14

Sept. 13: +9

Sept. 14: +5

Sept. 15: +4

Sept. 16: +1

Sept. 17: -1 (today)

A net break of 18 points in the spread in only seven days is pretty dramatic. I could think of (and have annoyed you by writing extensively on) at least a half-dozen items in the news which might account for this if people have begun paying attention to the stories. I’ll be interested in seeing what explanation is offered from her supporters.