McCain Palin: From Bounce to Blurp
When a ball is dropped from any reasonable height and strikes a hard surface, it tends to bounce back upward. If you try dropping the same ball into a pool of tar, it tends to make a “blurp” sort of noise and then begins to slowly sink beneath the surface. My friend Ron Beasley over at Newshoggers has a brief study on how the post-convention McCain-Palin bounce may be turning into a blurp.
Obama has taken the lead in most of the polls again – The Gallup Daily has him up by two again. I really don’t think that McCain got a convention bounce it was all the novelty Palin bounce. Over at Hot Air Allahpundit wonders if Palin is becoming “a bit of an anchor”. Indeed her favorablity has plummeted in the last week.
The last bit is interesting. Some have attributed the recent changes to the normal post-convention bounce which most campaigns receive, but in this topsy-turvy season, many were giving credit to the surprise pick of Sarah Palin. After an initial introduction where nobody knew what to make of her, it seems that her favorability indeed shot through the roof. Now, however, the bloom may be quickly coming off the rose. The next chart which Ron supplies shows the arc of Palin’s net favorability ratings in the polls. (“Net” in this case meaning the difference between the “view favorably” and “view unfavorably” ratings.)
Sept. 11: +17 (day the Gibson interview airs)
Sept. 12: +14
Sept. 13: +9
Sept. 14: +5
Sept. 15: +4
Sept. 16: +1
Sept. 17: -1 (today)
A net break of 18 points in the spread in only seven days is pretty dramatic. I could think of (and have annoyed you by writing extensively on) at least a half-dozen items in the news which might account for this if people have begun paying attention to the stories. I’ll be interested in seeing what explanation is offered from her supporters.
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10 Responses to “McCain Palin: From Bounce to Blurp”
The Gallup daily is going to bounce around a few points in either direction simply due to chance variations. It is a fairly reliable gauge, but until there is supporting polls, it’s too soon to declare a trend.
Quoting, much less believing, a Kos sponsored poll on the favorability of Sarah Palin is a bit much.
Most of the media has jumped on to the “McCain slumping” bandwagon due to the CBS/NYT poll. I don’t know if being gullible is a prerequisite for admission to the 4th Estate (or the democrat party) but it sure seems like it.
The CBS poll was obviously inaccurate. In order to boost their candidate, they needed to weight the poll to old party identity numbers. CBS is notorious for this tactic, as they have done it before to the amazement of the more serious people in this field. Of course, the CBS news director refused to answer why she chose this weighting method for this particular poll.
Close your eyes tap your heels together three times and wish Obama rises in the polls.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/mark-blumenthal/
Hah! I got it right. The explanations will be bad polling and media bias. I rock.
I always thought that the Palin thing couldn't last. I couldn't believe how Democrats were panicking like chickens with their heads cut off. Yes, Palin was a fun distraction for a while, but it becomes more and more obvious that she was a desperate political ploy. She had her first town hall meeting and fanned on softball questions. She makes Dan Quayle look like a serious elder statesman.
It comes down to the debates. If Obama performs well and gaffe-free, he's a shoe-in. McCain's performance doesn't matter as much, because people don't expect much.
Once again.. we don't actually NEED to read the polls. Just see who is complaining about them on any given day and you'll know who is slipping.
jwest,
Every single polling outfit has shown this move from McCain to Obama over the last week. Some show a greater move than others, mostly because of party ID screens. But however you measure the electorate, Obama has gained over the last week.
Strangely enough, John McCain should have picked Mitt Romney. At least he would have been credible talking about the Wall Street crisis instead of Palin and her whining about McCain's “verbiage.”
Elrod,
All I’m saying about the polls is that you need to consider the source. Some have agendas, others are more worried about their long term reputations.
The Big Ten polls are due out at 4:00pm today. These are usually pretty well done.
http://www.bigtenpoll.org/results.html
The divergences of the polls, which has been going on for months now, indicates to me that they're not too trustworthy.
All you can really say at this point is that it's close.
Elrod said: “Strangely enough, John McCain should have picked Mitt Romney. At least he would have been credible talking about the Wall Street crisis…”
Very possibly. It would depend upon how much voters saw Romney as a man who would know how to solve the problem and how much he was seen as the sort of man who got us into it.
Just wait for a new equilibrium. Don't waste time with childish hyperventilating and agitation. [sigh]
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