In the past six decades, there have been six presidential elections in which a shift of a relatively small number of votes in one or two states would have elected (and, of course, in 2000, did elect) a presidential candidate who lost the popular vote nationwide.

Nationwide popular election of the President is the only system that makes all states competitive, guarantees that the candidate with the most popular votes nationwide wins the Presidency, and makes every vote equal.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.

The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

susan

http://www.pollster.com/polls/mi/08-mi-pres-ge-…

I bet the Rassmussen poll doesn't support the IA poll. JW must favor Traverse City during the Cherry Festive.
http://www.visittraversecity.com/

Your link doesn't work. I went to RealClearPolitics.com and found this for Michigan. It shows Obama with a slight lead.

The aggregator I've been looking at is by Pollster.com. The electoral vote map has been very stable for months. But since the conventions there have been changes away from Obama and toward McCain.

Since you seem fairly knowledgeable about this, how does the Pollster map look to you?

Also: Any theories why?

Where does he get this stuff from? (Oh yeah, that's right, he just makes it up.)

Here's the actual data. Note the independent voter movement to column #2.

If the 2008 presidential election were held today, would you vote for:

1. Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden 2. Republicans John McCain and

Sarah Palin 3. (Other) 4. (Don’t know) 5. (Would not vote)

1 2 3 4 5

8-9 Sep 08* 42% 45 2 10 2

Democrats 79% 9 1 10 1

Republicans 5% 88 1 6 1

Independents 31% 46 4 15 3

19-20 Aug 08 42% 39 4 14 1

Democrats 78% 8 3 10 1

Republicans 8% 82 2 8 -

Independents 31% 30 8 28 3

McCain 80%

Obama 46%

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_91208…

Yes, it does suck indeed to be a democrat when the polls come out.

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Battle-Congre…

I might need to revise that estimate down for Obama.

There were some new polls today, but I’m having a little trouble with the drill down.

Look at this one from Michigan.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/IA_Mic…

McCain is winning independents by 18 points. The pollster must be weighting the dem/rep split with old party identification numbers in order to get to the 45/44 McCain lead.

I’ve sent some emails for to ask for clarification.

That's a mighty bold prediction.

You'll never get to be a professional pundit that way!!

Which are the 14 pro-Obama/undecided states?

I should have given you the links.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/wa_obama_49_mccai…
http://www.pollster.com/polls/wi/08-wi-pres-ge-…

Washington and Wisconsin are both in the margin of error with the only poll taken post-Palin. The electoral counts Michael is talking about are running on pre-Palin polls averaged in.

Within a week or two, you’ll have about 14 states either solid or leaning Obama. The balance will be McCain or undecided.

With Washington and Wisconsin tied and no one knowing what Oregon and Minnesota looks like post-Palin, don’t you feel Obama is going down in a Dukakis style loss?

And the conventional wisdom has been pretty close to completely wrong this year.