Biden Senate Succession Now Up In The Air

In an upset that has major implications for who might succeed Joe Biden in the U.S. Senate if he becomes Vice President, the state treasurer and Democratic Party maverick Jack Markell squeaked by Lieutenant Governor John Carney yesterday in a primary election that shattered Delaware turnout records.

Carney had been expected to win, which meant that Governor Ruth Ann Minner, a Democrat, probably would have chosen Markel to succeed Biden, who remains on the November ballot and is expected to easily win a seventh term.

Also in the running is Beau Biden, the senator’s son, who was elected state attorney general in a 2006 campaign seen by political observers as a stepping stone to higher office. But the younger Biden is scheduled to join his National Guard unit in October ahead of a deployment to Iraq that could last up to a year, and it’s unclear whether a deployment would prevent him from taking the Senate seat.

Markel (photo, with wife Carla) is considered to be better qualified to fill Biden’s oversized shoes than Carney, but would not give up the governorship, which he is favored to win.

Biden will have the greatest say in who succeeds him. If he does not approve of Minner’s pick, he has the option of not resigning his Senate seat until Minner’s term ends — but only if it ends before Barack Obama’s begins. Both Delaware and Washington inaugurations are set for January 20, times to be determined.

Whomever succeeds Biden would serve until the next election in 2010.

An alternative to Carney or Beau Biden would be a senior Delaware Democrat with no political ambitions beyond serving out Joe Biden’s term, perhaps a member of the judiciary. This would clear the way for Beau Biden to run in 2010.