Gallup Daily Tracking: McCain Retains 5 Point Lead Over Obama
The question now is: is Republican Presidential candidate Sen. John McCain’s lead over Democratic Sen. Barack Obama a convention “bounce,” or a sign of a larger 2008 political realignment in the wake of his pick of Gov. Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential running mate? That’ll be the question to keep in mind more and more as the latest Gallup Daily Tracking poll shows McCain retaining his lead:
The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update finds John McCain maintaining his five-point lead versus Barack Obama among registered voters, 49% to 44%.
McCain led Obama by five percentage points in Monday’s report on the strength of a six-point increase in the percentage of voters choosing him on the presidential trial heat following the Republican National Convention. McCain’s 49% support in today’s three-day rolling average, based on Sept. 6-8 interviewing, is unchanged from Monday’s report and matches McCain’s high mark in Gallup tracking to date.
Gallup polling in recent days has been quite stable, showing McCain ahead of Obama by similar margins in each of the last four individual days of nightly tracking. McCain also had a 4-point lead over Obama among registered voters in the separate USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted this past weekend.
The GOP convention has clearly altered the structure of the race for now, which had shown Obama consistently ahead in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking updates for all but a few days from the time he clinched the nomination in early June until the end of last week.
Gallup notes that if historical trends hold, Obama will stay down in the polls for one month:
While the increased vote share a candidate receives following his convention usually diminishes, candidates who lead after the second convention usually remain the leader a month after the convention. This is based on a review of historical Gallup data since 1964 — the first year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces. The only possible exception to this general pattern occurred in 1980, when Jimmy Carter had a slim one-point advantage after the Democratic National Convention but he and Ronald Reagan were exactly tied one month after Carter was nominated for a second term.
Thus, if Obama regains the lead over the next month, he will be bucking the historical trend.
The bottom line: as polls are showing, Obama is no longer the front-runner amid defections from independent, white women and even some conservative Democratic voters. Add to that the McCain-Palin ticket now attracting big and enthusiastic crowds and the conventional wisdom is being tossed out the window again to make way for a new conventional wisdom.
Will this conventional wisdom be the one that remains until Election Day?
15 Responses to “Gallup Daily Tracking: McCain Retains 5 Point Lead Over Obama”
Glad to see “the issues” have such a huge sway over the electorate. Four more years!
McCain is no Bush clone, despite what the fools would believe.
As to the poll of the day, hour, or minute, we need to wait a while and see if the graphs diverge, converge, or converge, cross, and then diverge. (Won't the left be hysterical and vicious then!)
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08…
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08…
I never, ever trust the conventional wisdom or the polls, unless it's Election Day.
from FDL (Blue Texan) – new polling in Florida:
Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are tied at 48 percent in a new Rasmussen poll conducted Sunday and released late Monday.
Before both parties held their conventions, an August Rasmussen poll showed McCain with a 46-43 lead in Florida.
48% is Obama's best showing yet in the Rasmussen, and McSame has had the lead in 8 of the past 9. And while it's true Palin's favorables are still strong there, and McSame is also up a couple points since last month, you've got to wonder how Pentecostal Palin is going to play in Boca.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/…
But yeah, polls really don't hold much water until at least a week before the election itself.
Except in the areas of economic policy (he wants to continue the reckless tax cut regime), foreign policy (he wants to continue the Iraq occupation and expand the conflict to include Iran), energy policy (he looks to oil as the first and best option) and on campaign style (he has embraced Karl Rove and his apprentices).
But keep repeating your foolish talking point. It's fun to see you never back it up with anything concrete.
Chris, McCain is not trying to expand the war into Iran. We already have been in conflict with Iran for several years (actually, since the Revolution); Iran seized British personnel if you haven't forgotten, for example, during the current conflict in Iraq.
Only idiots want to immediately end the occupation. The Bush people, McCain, and the Democrats all want us out of Iraq (and Afghanistan, eventually, too, don't forget), but only the idiots want us to flee from there too soon.
McCain obviously is different than Bush in demeanor and in campaign strategy.
McCain's energy policy includes alternative energy support missing among the Bush people. The vast majority of the US public knows we need oil for years to come to power our transportation; only idiots believe we should be forcing ourselves to de-mobilize ourselves or expect instant alternatives that are not there and won't be there for years.
YOU'RE WELCOME. [sigh] Next time, do your own homework, as you always should.
He has a funny way of showing it. He has made light of bombing Iran, and he's attacked Obama for not being bellicose enough toward them.
Glad to see we can discuss things in an adult fashion.
Bush and McCain only jumped on the bandwagon after Maliki endorsed Obama's plan. And even so, McCain has made it clear he would like to see our troops there for decades, apparently unaware of the Muslim sensibilities.
So obvious that you can't say how. I see.
McCain's campaign rhetoric is focused on lies about the efficacy of expanded offshore drilling. And yet his Senate record shows clear opposition to alternative energy subsidies. Putting windmills in his campaign ads is not enough to convince me.
It will all depend on how long it takes for the novelty of Sarah Palin to wear off.
Iran seized British personnel if you haven't forgotten, for example, during the current conflict in Iraq.
…and let them go after 10 days. They seem to have a penchant for kidnapping rather than beheading.
and while we're worrying ourselves about Iran, Russia is busy buidiing nuke plants for them.
more of Bush's “eyes on the prize”.
-his own wallet.
To me a much more problematic poll (Rasmussen)………
While 82% of voters who support McCain believe the justices should rule on what is in the Constitution, just 29% of Barack Obama’s supporters agree.
If I was McCain I'd be more worried about Pakistan— where approval of US policies has dropped to about 10% after decades of American support for Pakistani dictators. Wonder what the average Pakistani thought about Bush's policy of spreading democracy in the ME, all the while supporting Musharraf? OK sorry if I'm o/t
McCain is no Bush clone, despite what the fools would believe.
Interestingly, even McCain bragged about how much he and Bush saw eye to eye. People criticize Obama for saying McCain voted with Bush over 90% of the time, but he's just reiterating McCain's own words. So according to you, either McCain was lying or he's a fool. Which one do you suppose it is? For that matter, which one do you think is preferable?
Everybody does know McCain's lead in this very poll fell from 10 points to 5 points in only 24 hours.
It seems at least reasonable to consider the possibility that his convention bounce is dissipating.
I mean, a drop of 5 points is rather drastic.
Maybe McCain can maintain a 5 point lead from here on out. Or maybe not. Tomorrow, we'll know how he's doing tomorrow.
There are also other polls out there. The Investors Business Daily polls gives Obama, not McCain, a 5 point lead.
Rasmussen has them tied at 48.
There's a pretty wide disparity among polls.
Isn't there?
The Huff Post has a good essay on polling, the science of which has gone way beyond my required statistics class. As many here say, there is really only one that matters. We can parse divergent polls all day, if we want a headache.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/09/poll-m…
Wait a minute. Some partisans cherry pick polls they like and ignore the rest. This is the only poll to show a 5-point edge for McCain. Nobody else has it this high. Rasmussen has it tied. CBS has McCain up 2. NBC has Obama up 1. ABC has Obama up 1. So we have a whole in-depth analysis of one poll that, at this point, looks like an outlier based on a different sample? Take away Gallup and the rest is tied. And that's on the heels of McCain's convention. As an Obama supporter I'll take that.
So why cherry pick this one?