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Ominous Bells for Barack Obama

Over two weeks ago, after Barack Obama’s decision to select Joe Biden, I made this prediction:

“Bong, Bong, Bong – does anyone else hear that? That ominous sound is the bell announcing the TKO the Democrats have just given themselves. This year was not supposed to be a contest; heck, just two months ago most pundits were talking about how large a coattail effect Obama would have in House and Senate races across the country. As I see it, Obama will be lucky to be even with McCain on Labor Day; in fact, he will probably be trailing in the national polls after the Republican Convention in Minneapolis.”

In fact, Obama is trailing McCain in several polls including by 2 points – ABC / Washington Post and CBS News and by an amazing 10 points in the USA Today/ Gallup Poll. The Palin impact has allowed McCain to create a gender gap in his favor with white women. White women favor McCain 53% to 41%, which is remarkable considering Obama led the same demographic before the Democratic Convention by 8 points. This is a swing of 20 percent.

David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager dismissed the poll by saying “we certainly are not seeing any movement like that. Polls, time to time, particularly on the demographic stuff, can have some pretty wild swings.”

Well, that is his view and he is paid to manage the campaign; however, I see it very differently. Obama’s campaign is in serious trouble because his campaign still does not know how to deal with Sarah Palin. Obama and Biden are afraid to attack her where she is vulnerable because of Obama’s lack of executive experience. There is a problem with that logic: Obama has run an effective presidential campaign for almost two years and Palin has literally just gotten off the train from Juneau. No one has ever had experience being the President of the United States before he was elected into office. The experience argument is an effective smoke screen to distract the American people from the real issues of this campaign: the war in Iraq and the faltering economy.

Last week, I did not understand the reason behind the Palin nomination. Today, I am big enough to say that John McCain may have made a politically smart move by nominating Palin. He solidified his base and put pressure on the Democrats to either fight now or come back in 2012. So far, the Democrats have not responded to McCain’s challenge. It is not 3 a.m. but the bells of the alarm clock are sounding…”bong, bong, bong”

  • bacalove
    McCain and the GOP still want to play got-cha politics — Old-time Party Politics, which most Americans are weary and growing tired of. The GOP lead us into a Pretend and Fake war, the Iraq invasion. The Real war was and is in Afghanistan where Bin Ladin is hiding today. That is not change you can believe in. Most Americans want Truth and Authenticity. We don’t want to be led into a fake war for oil! We don’t want our young men and women dying for oil and a fake war that should have never been authorized. John McCain likes to say he is good on national security, yet he voted Yes to authorize the fake war the Iraq War. What we need desperately today is more honesty by our politicians in this nation instead of the politics of Got-cha, Lies and the tearing down of one’s opponent through dishonesty. The debate should be about the real issues, not pretend wars or personal attacks and or empty and false slogans because it does nothing for the day to day lives of American people.

    The Republican operatives have belittled and berated Barack Obama as just speeches, however, Barack has over 20 years of experience in public service, plus a Natural Talent to organize and get things done, as evidenced by the successful running of his Campaign. Barack Obama has an innate judgment as evidenced by his speaking out against the Iraq war when it was not popular because he had the intelligence and common sense to know that the real was was in Afghanistan not Iraq. Bin Ladin did and does not live in Iraq. Barack Obama has the ability to inspire people to unite in a common cause to bring about the Necessary Changes we need today. Because if we do not unite for change, for true democracy, together we will all go down with the ship and be united anyway but in a negative way and not a positive way.

    We definitely need a change in the way our politicians campaign which as to date, tears down one’s opponent through lies and dishonesty which only tears the country down and puts a bad taste in our mouths, though each candidate has the right to point out true policy differences. We should demand honesty and integrity from our politicians and stop letting them lead us down a yellow brick road of illusion, misstatements, lies and dirty political maneuvering!

    Barack Obama’s message has been throughout that all children are Everybody’s Children, and that we must change the “mindset” for going into wars. He tells us that in order for us to make it as a society and solve our problems, that we must stop being divisive: gays against straight, Muslims, Jews, Palestinians, Christians must unite and respect one another’s religions. That will be his greatest gift to humanity at this time — the ability to see each other as ourselves — or together we can go down with the ship. Everyday he risks his life. He is not running because he has a thirst for power. He offers up his life for his love of humanity and to its next stage of evolution. We should embrace this gift and offer up our prayers that he can finish his mission, his high calling. We must stopped being fooled by politicians who only has the best interest of their pocketbooks and big corporations and not the pocket books of everyday average citizens. It should not take 10 years for the minimum wage to be increased, there is no justification for that. That should tell you there that politicians who vote no for an increase care nothing about your day to day struggles. And you have to ask yourself “What has the GOP done for me lately”? The years when the American Dream was thriving, they were years when there was Democratic Presidents and Congress. That is the true party of the people. If we are to get back to the American dream again we must put in office that party who has always been inclusive and the people’s champion. That party is the Democratic Party.

    And lastly we must not listen to those who refuse to understand the changing of the old order, and the awakening of humanity to the new possibilities. We need a complete purification of the political and economical arenas which would be of the greatest value in bringing back Americas greatness and strength.
  • Amanda
    It isn't time to panic for the Democrats. Obama is still well ahead in Electoral Vote predictions, and McCain's post-convention bump is to be expected. Palin was a non-entity until the convention, so right now she enjoys being the siny new plaything of the media. As people find out more about her, some will continue to support her as a VP candidate, and some will back away from her.

    What I think is absolutely ridiculous is the way the media has backed off of Palin, as if her insincere (and mostly unfounded) cries of sexism means they can't ask her pointed questions about her policies and her record. If she wants to play in the big boys' league, she needs to suck it up and deal with the criticisms and questions. That's just part of public life. It is the news media's job to find out who she is and what she stands for and report that to the American people. They are being far too complacent for fear of evoking the "liberal media bias" meme from the GOP.
  • Why should Senator Obama attack Gov. Palin? He has nothing to gain from it. That is Biden's job and he really doesn't need to do much until the VP debate. Look, Obama is not going to go Karl Rove. He has his message and he'd be smart to stick with it. I see alot of Democratic hand-wringing over this. Like Obama is 20 points behind in the polls (and I hate polls). This thing is even with debates upcoming. May the best candidate win.
  • DLS
    Isn't this premature?

    Yes, the Palin selection has already proven to be a good one and there will be a permanent boost for McCain (getting little more attention these days than Biden is getting, or for that matter, Obama), but we need to wait another week at least to see how the two teams really compare against each other. (After another week or so, by definition, the people rushing to change to McCain will have completed their rush to change to McCain.)

    I honestly view Obama-Biden still as the leader currently, but obviously it is a real contest now -- it's a bigger effect on the race this year than Gore's loss to Bush in the 2000 debates suddenly shocked the nation into realizing Bush had a chance to win, after all. McCain with Palin is that kind of shock, but noticeably stronger.

    But let's wait and see.
  • DLS
    "It is the news media's job to find out who she is and what she stands for and report that to the American people"

    As opposed to their little more than worship of Obama...

    But we expected that uneven treatment all along -- it was predictable.

    And if the media descends as low as lefty bloggers, there will be a public backlash AT THE POLLS.
  • kritt11
    The GOP is hiding Palin, and bringing her out at key moments to give interviews or give a rousing fundraising speech. If her credentials and past decisions do not pass muster of the light of day, why would educated women vote for her?

    Or in other words, do we want to replace the most secretive and totally unaccountable VP in history with another one just like him?
  • christoofar
    Yes, Ms. Palin is being trundled out in little , controlled snippets, such as the ABC Charles Gibson "installment interview" this week. Instead of one sit down take, McCain's campaign is doling them out one at a time, in case Gibson actually asks a real question, they can yank her from the followup. Brilliant strategy , "offering access" to a public figure, and the MSM seems to be just fine with it.
  • kritt11
    Which makes me wonder if they are just going along for the ride as they did in the post/9/11 days leading up to the Iraq invasion??? Has the MSM become too timid and worried about losing corporate sponsors???
  • jchem
    I'm not sure if I would call it going along for the ride, although that is a good analogy kritt11. But given what happened at MSNBC this week and all the claims about media bias last week, I just get the impression that the media is now trying too hard to appear neutral. Marlowe has pointed out in a different thread that the media appears to be backing off a bit, since some of their accusations from last week are getting refuted. Perhaps they are just being cautious?
  • elrod
    Jeebus. McCain gets a convention bounce - already fading according to Rasmussen. And everybody goes nuts.

    Calm down people.

    Here is the strategy people: Barack Obama is questioning the sincerity of McCain's AND Palin's reform credentials. The ad released yesterday is exactly the tone of the rest of the campaign. Nothing about Palin's family.

    They are tying Palin, McCain and Bush together as three corrupt politicians who talk a big game of reform but never deliver on it. Every day that Palin continues to lie about opposing the Bridge to Nowhere is a day the Obama campaign pounces on the cynicism of McCain-Palin and the non-reform nature of their ticket.

    I am confident that Barack Obama knows what he is doing right now. The next big question will be whether or not Palin supports Ted Stevens' Democratic opponent in the Senate race. A negative answer is only further proof that she is no real reformer.
  • Amanda
    DLS, I don't even know how you can say the media worships Obama with a straight face. The main stream media worships money and ratings and ad buys. They treated Obama like a rockstar when it was good for their ratings. And when the Reverend Wright "scandal" came out, they beat that dead horse into a pulp. They have been every bit as vicious to him as they've been friendly, and the same can be said for McCain. None of that changes the fact that their job is to investigate and report.
  • Leonidas
    Joe who?
  • roro80
    Amanda -- I agree with you about the media's love/hate relationship with Obama. I certainly haven't seen the stories about Palin's church's pastor, who, in my opinion, is way crazier and further to the fringe than Wright. I've seen chatter on blogs about the downright lies at the RNC, but nothing but a love-fest for Palin in the MSM since the convention. I do think Obama should be worried, but I don't think he should move into Rove-campaign territory. He's promised to be different, and that promise doesn't hold up too well if he becomes a smear machine like those he's trying to run against.
  • kritt11
    It is a credit to the right's campaign to allign the media with lefty causes that now hiding Palin receives little or no skepticism from Republicans. Instead, it is seen as a smart strategy that can be used to protect their candidate's integrity from a press who hasn't treated the governor with " due deference".


    . Deference is not due anyone who is running for the nation's highest office, just basic fairness.
  • jwest
    Amanda,

    The Rev. Wright subject has not been brought up yet. You’ll know when it has.

    During the primary campaign Wright was mentioned briefly, however the media quickly buried any stories so that Barack could be nominated.

    At this moment, money is pouring into the McCain campaign and more importantly, the independent 527 organizations. Obama still has decent fundraising, but his incoming cash flow peaked some time ago. For each dollar of negative advertising that the 527’s put out about Wright, Obama will need 8 to 10 in defense.

    McCain will legitimately have no part of the Wright ads and will most likely condemn them. Of course, that will have no effect on the 527s.

    The only variable now is how far the convention bump, the anger over liberal smears and the media backlash will go to increase the poll numbers. New state by state polls are just coming in, so wait until the end of the week to check the electoral map.
  • During the primary campaign Wright was mentioned briefly, however the media quickly buried any stories so that Barack could be nominated.


    Do you feel dirty for lying so much? Just askin'.
  • kritt11
    jwest-just what media are you exposed to ? That story was carpeting the news--- and I watch MSNBC and read the Washington Post--- Let me tell you "the librul MSM" had a field day. FNC covered the story nonstop. Lets get real.
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