Over two weeks ago, after Barack Obama’s decision to select Joe Biden, I made this prediction:
“Bong, Bong, Bong – does anyone else hear that? That ominous sound is the bell announcing the TKO the Democrats have just given themselves. This year was not supposed to be a contest; heck, just two months ago most pundits were talking about how large a coattail effect Obama would have in House and Senate races across the country. As I see it, Obama will be lucky to be even with McCain on Labor Day; in fact, he will probably be trailing in the national polls after the Republican Convention in Minneapolis.”
In fact, Obama is trailing McCain in several polls including by 2 points – ABC / Washington Post and CBS News and by an amazing 10 points in the USA Today/ Gallup Poll. The Palin impact has allowed McCain to create a gender gap in his favor with white women. White women favor McCain 53% to 41%, which is remarkable considering Obama led the same demographic before the Democratic Convention by 8 points. This is a swing of 20 percent.
David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager dismissed the poll by saying “we certainly are not seeing any movement like that. Polls, time to time, particularly on the demographic stuff, can have some pretty wild swings.”
Well, that is his view and he is paid to manage the campaign; however, I see it very differently. Obama’s campaign is in serious trouble because his campaign still does not know how to deal with Sarah Palin. Obama and Biden are afraid to attack her where she is vulnerable because of Obama’s lack of executive experience. There is a problem with that logic: Obama has run an effective presidential campaign for almost two years and Palin has literally just gotten off the train from Juneau. No one has ever had experience being the President of the United States before he was elected into office. The experience argument is an effective smoke screen to distract the American people from the real issues of this campaign: the war in Iraq and the faltering economy.
Last week, I did not understand the reason behind the Palin nomination. Today, I am big enough to say that John McCain may have made a politically smart move by nominating Palin. He solidified his base and put pressure on the Democrats to either fight now or come back in 2012. So far, the Democrats have not responded to McCain’s challenge. It is not 3 a.m. but the bells of the alarm clock are sounding…”bong, bong, bong”