Obama McCain: The Electoral Vote Tightens
After the conventions and the candidates’ VP picks, Obama still maintains a slight electoral lead, according to NBC’s map. Obama has 228 electoral votes to McCain’s 200, with 110 electoral votes in the toss-up column. The changes from last month, when Obama held a 217-189 advantage: Missouri moves from toss-up to Lean McCain, Pennsylvania moves from toss-up to Lean Obama, and Wisconsin moves from Lean Obama to toss-up. We came VERY close to moving North Carolina to toss-up, but until we see one decent poll showing Obama ahead, we’re not there yet. Every North Carolina poll has had McCain ahead, though it is worth noting the RNC and the campaign are finally up in the Tar Heel state with paid media.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, PA (38 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, VA, WI (110 votes)
Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, SD (64 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)
Now the question becomes: will 2008 become a replay of 2004? Or 2000?
3 Responses to “Obama McCain: The Electoral Vote Tightens”
As illustrated by Real Clear Politics and Pollster.com, the state by state polls that make up the electoral map are outdated. Some are even pre-Palin announcement.
By the end of the week, we should have a number of new state polls to give a more accurate picture of what is happening.
Although I believe there will be some surprises, I’m confident Obama will still carry Massachusetts, Vermont, Delaware and quite possibly Maryland.
It seems Californians once again falls short of understanding the essence of business. Why we can go to the movies, stores ,buy cars etc. It is because of the capitalist system that the Republicans have given us and to be ourselves. Yet many feel deprived and venture towards socialism views. “I want what they have” then earn it, get off your butts, stop complaning and go to work. Do anything get off our gifts of welfare, food stamps etc.We have become a country of “give” to me as “I need it because I want it”. Too bad. No one wants to work for it and all fell entitled. Obama says he will lower taxes for the middle class and business will pay more. How stupid are we becoming where will that tax end up, back on us . Yes, the businesses will be taxed and we, the public,will get the lion share as it is passed down. We do not need bigger government we need a leaner well verse system to make America great again and not become a third worl service country. The people of the U.S, need to take responsibilty for “our” action and stop trying to find someone to blame. Even parents blame others for their children actions, it starts at home. We have made consequences a joke. The housing market is not the governments fault, it is greedy financial institutions,investors and lying mortgage brokers who are the blame. Someone needs to be accountable instead of always the government.
The correct question is will this be like 2006 or like 2000?
(2006, we go Dem once more, and Obama wins. 2000, sentiment changed suddenly — then, when Bush won the debates; now, with Palin's candidacy — and the underdog Presidential candidate wins, after all.)
If we wanted 2004, it would mean Palin's candidacy rewrote everything (huge GOP win).
There should be no way now with Palin in the race that Obama will win big. That already has been changed.