Mixed News For Republicans: McCain TV Ratings Higher Than Obama’s And Palin Polls Conflict
The Republican party got a double-whammy of potentially-good news today: Republican Presidential nominee Sen. John McCain’s TV ratings soared beyond even Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama’s — and a new poll shows Mccain’s Veep pick Gov. Sarah Palin is better-liked than McCain or Obama.
But there was some not-so-good news: according to yet another poll, Palin is proving to be a partisan acquired taste and probably hasn’t been a huge boost to the McCain ticket except among Republicans.
Meanwhile, there are some other potential wrinkles in this new top-line silk suit: McCain’s speech got some tepid reviews (even from some Republicans) and, even with some negative initial press coverage since Palin is a new commodity on the national political scene, she will most certainly going to be subject to vigorous media vetting and — eventually — tough questioning (even if the GOP tries to keep her largely under wraps).
The tidbits of good news for the Republicans that should cause some concern in Democratic quarters. Details:
#1: McCain’s TV ratings were big B.O. (Variety lingo for Box Office):
Presidential candidate John McCain’s acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention drew more television viewers than his rival Barack Obama attracted at the Democratic party’s event last week, according to preliminary ratings from Nielsen Media Research.
Across all broadcast networks Thursday, Sen. McCain’s speech ended the night with a 4.8 rating/7 share, compared to Sen. Obama’s 4.3/7 average, according to overnight numbers from metered households in 55 U.S. markets measured by Nielsen. These ratings are preliminary, however, and are subject to change.
NBC’s coverage of Sen. McCain’s speech started directly at the tail end of the opening game of NFL season, with the speech pulling in a 6.3 rating/10 share, topping Sen. Obama’s speech last week by 26%. That lead-in may have boosted audiences who last night turned out in droves to watch Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin introduce herself to the country.
#2: Palin is a hit, according to Rasmussen Reports:
A week ago, most Americans had never heard of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Now, following a Vice Presidential acceptance speech viewed live by more than 40 million people, Palin is viewed favorably by 58% of American voters. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 37% hold an unfavorable view of the self-described hockey mom.
The figures include 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of Palin and 18% with a Very Unfavorable view. Before her acceptance speech, Palin was viewed favorably by 52%. A week ago, 67% had never heard of her.
The new data also shows significant increases in the number who say McCain made the right choice and the number who say Palin is ready to be President. Generally, John McCain’s choice of Palin earns slightly better reviews than Barack Obama’s choice of Joe Biden.
But there’s more:
Perhaps most stunning is the fact that Palin’s favorable ratings are now a point higher than either man at the top of the Presidential tickets this year. As of Friday morning, Obama and McCain are each viewed favorably by 57% of voters. Biden is viewed favorably by 48%.
There is a strong partisan gap when it comes to perceptions of Palin. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Republicans give her favorable reviews along with 33% of Democrats and 59% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
Bottom line: a larger number of independent voters liked Palin than didn’t like her. And it’s going to be the independents who’ll hold the key to the White House.
However, Palin’s been a household name on the national scene for about a week. The media scrutiny isn’t over yet and the Democrats haven’t yet dispatched their surrogates to take on Palin. One of them will likely be Sen. Hillary Clinton.
#3. ABC reports a mixed public reception to Palin. She’s perceived in a highly-partisan way, and more Americans have doubts about her experience. She is boosting McCain mostly among GOP partisans:
Sarah Palin is receiving a highly partisan reception on the national political stage, with significant public doubts about her readiness to serve as president, yet majority approval of both her selection by John McCain and her willingness to join the Republican ticket.
Given the sharp political divisions she inspires, Palin’s initial impact on vote preferences and on views of McCain looks like a wash, and, contrary to some prognostication, she does not draw disproportionate support from women. But she could potentially assist McCain by energizing the GOP base, in which her reviews are overwhelmingly positive.
Half of Americans have a favorable first impression of Palin, 37 percent unfavorable, with the rest undecided. Her positive ratings soar to 85 percent among Republicans, 81 percent among her fellow evangelical white Protestants and 74 percent of conservatives. Just a quarter of Democrats agree, with independents in the middle.
Joe Biden, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, is similarly rated, with slightly fewer unfavorable views and partisanship running in the opposite direction.
And the impact?
The public by a narrow 6-point margin, 25 percent to 19 percent, says Palin’s selection makes them more likely to support McCain, less than the 12-point positive impact of Biden on the Democratic ticket (22 percent more likely to support Barack Obama, 10 percent less so). But majorities in both cases say the vice presidential picks won’t matter in their vote, and those who do report an impact chiefly are reflecting their existing partisan predispositions.
What does all of this mean?
1. Beware of quick conventional wisdom on this race. You can see here that quoting one poll may be only part of the story.
2. The jury is still out on Palin. The public will now look closer at her. The question for McCain is whether she will bring in independent voters and/or Hillary Clinton supporters or her main role will be to excite the party base and energize Republican women to flock to the polls.
3. The Democrats have to be careful how they handle her, not because she’s a woman, but because a large chunk of the public has reacted to her favorably. This doesn’t mean they can’t aggressively campaign against her, but going over the line could boomerang.
4. McCain’s ratings are good news IF the public liked the speech. If the public’s response was as tepid as some pundits and bloggers (not counting the ones who can be counted on to praise everything a Republican says or damn every thing a Republican says) it could have been a lost opportunity. And what did voters hear from the speech?
Comments to “Mixed News For Republicans: McCain TV Ratings Higher Than Obama’s And Palin Polls Conflict”
[...] Kyle Orland . Excerpt: Presidential candidate John McCain’s acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention drew more television viewers than his rival Barack Obama attracted at the Democratic party’s event last week, according to preliminary ratings … [...]
I thought the football game might hurt him, interesting to see it did not. It might also help if most of those football fans were a little woozy after one too many beers…
The most accurate predictive model is right here at TMV……..whenever Mullen, Stickings, Shaw or Sorwell post something about Palin, expect the majority of public sentiment to show movement in the exact opposite direction.
The McCain/Palin campaign has successfully managed (per Rasmussen) to cast the media as being unfairly against her, so any revelation or even a pointed question will be perceived as an attack.
“3. The Democrats have to be careful how they handle her, not because she’s a woman, but because a large chunk of the public has reacted to her favorably.”
Ann Althouse catches the panicked Obama sending women out to blunt the unexpected popularity of Palin.
http://althouse.blogspot.com/2008/09/obama-to-d...
Obama’s biggest mistake is trusting Hillary as a surrogate. Anyone thinking that she will place the interests of the party above her own ambitions is deluded. When Obama loses, Hillary will regain control of the Democrat party and begin a process of punishing those who were disloyal, while setting up her 2012 presidential run.
OMG!!!
CasualObserver said: “The most accurate predictive model is right here at TMV… expect the majority of public sentiment to show movement in the exact opposite direction.”
Well, TMV is a pretty liberal group, and folks see the world through a partisan lens.
When the left blogosphere and media piled on Palin over the weekend, it was echoed here. I gather “US Magazine” is paying with the loss of subscribers from its editors prematurely assuming Palin being toast.
It is truly fascinating to see the media . . . which refused to even look into rumors of Edwards' affair when he was running for president, as they were merely rumors . . . now twist themselves into knots to justify their wall-to-wall coverage of every rumor in Palin's personal life.
Marlowecan–
I'm a little surprised at how easy you make this.
Did you see the Daily Show report showing Karl Rove, Bill O'Reilly and several others completely changing their tunes? If not, click here.
They don't even go through the kabuki of twisting themselves into knots. They just utterly reverse themselves to suit the prevailing winds, as if previously held principles never even existed.
And as for whatever coverage you disliked that occurred here this weekend, surely you concede it was partially the result of Palin having been poorly vetted. To that extent, maybe Republicans could look in the mirror when they point fingers. But that probably wouldn't suit the prevailing winds.
The “view favorably” question has always been an odd one to me. In a certain sense, I view Palin favorably as well. Never met her; she's done nothing on the national stage except a single speech; a fine personal story. I don't view her negatively as a person. I just don't want her to be President.
“Across all broadcast networks Thursday, Sen. McCain’s speech ended the night with a 4.8 rating/7 share, compared to Sen. Obama’s 4.3/7 average, according to overnight numbers from metered households in 55 U.S. markets measured by Nielsen. These ratings are preliminary, however, and are subject to change.”
Well… this just shows that more metered households watched McCain than Obama. It doesn't mean that more people actually saw McCain than Obama. I know there were a ton of events and people gathered in bars (which I guess would not be considered “metered households”) and at friends houses (I guess some of those would be “metered households). I didn't see as much publicity around McCain, nor did I even talk to anyone who was going to watch McCain in a public setting.
But that's my observation in SF. I'd be interested to know if others (and I hope the McCain supporters here weigh in with their observations) saw a lot of buzz around McCain's speeches, with folks attending house parties or watching in public places…
SF is pretty solid Obama and my observations ae skewed, though I did talk with friends in other parts of the country who went to Obama parties… So I'd like to hear some balance here. Thanks!
In talking with co-workers today, both Democrat and Republican, I discovered that many of my Republican co-workers did not view the DNC, they said that they weren't interested. On the other hand, many of my Democratic co-workers said they did view the RNC to “see what the other side had to say”.
Funny about McCain's Neilsen. ratings. I watched every night of both conventions, EXCEPT McCain's speech. I tuned it in for a couple minutes and then turned it off out of boredom.
If that many people watched McCain's speech, it won't be good for him. It was not a very well-written speech (I've read the text and watched clips since) and it was delivered poorly until the last 15 seconds.
As for Palin, she fired up both bases. The middle will wait and see.
And one other thing: Palin does not appeal to moderate and liberal women. She turns them off, actually. Palin does appeal to white working class men, however. And that's for two reasons: her Nixonland anti-elitism resentment and her looks. Yes, she's an attractive, female Richard Nixon.
Elrod, yes, I agree she is an attractive woman who likes to be one of the boys. I guess all those college guys who Obama signed up will be voting for Palin now!