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CBS Poll: McCain Ties Obama In Convention Bump

A new CBS poll now shows that GOP Presidential candidate Sen. John McCain has eradicated Democratic Presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama’s post-convention bounce that had him leading McCain by 8 points just a week ago:

The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn’t vote.

This is in contrast to a poll conducted last weekend, where the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.

McCain has also closed the enthusiasm gap some with Obama, but it still exists. Fifty-five percent of Obama’s supporters are enthusiastic about their choice, and now so are 35% of McCain’s. Last weekend, just 25 percent of McCain’s supporters were enthusiastic about him, compared to 67 of Obama’s supporters.

Look for that gap to close dramatically due to McCain’s selection of Palin, which is increasingly-exciting to the party’s conservative base. Many of them reportedly like Palin better than McCain. The key, of course, is how McCain-Palin fare in a variety of polls and the overall trend. But there’s no reason to expect that after McCain delivers tonight’s speech — which has been in the works for weeks — that he won’t enjoy a bounce in other polls as well.

Meanwhile, the latest Rasmussen poll shows just how vulnerable Obama and the Democratic ticket may be:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 50%, McCain 45%. (see recent daily results).

Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech last night. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

Last night’s polling shows that, by a ten-to-one margin, voters believe reporters are trying to hurt Palin’s campaign rather than help. Republicans and unaffiliated voters strongly believe that a double standard is being applied to Palin because she is a woman. Democrats disagree. Perhaps most stunning is that, among unaffiliated voters, just 42% believe Obama has better experience than Palin to be President. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say Palin has the edge on experience. Again, most of the interviews for this survey were completed before Palin’s well-received speech last night.

Translation: the GOP experience argument is working. So expect it to continue (if it’s not broke, don’t fix it…).

  • GeorgeSorwell
    On the other hand, Gallup has Obama ahead, 49-42.

    There have surprisingly inconsistent polling results all summer long. Can anyone who knows something about poll-taking explain this?
  • elrod
    There's a big problem with this poll. The party ID is completely different from last week. It went from D+9 to D+3. That accounts for most of the shift.

    Why might that happen? Simple. More Republicans are home watching the RNC and answering the phone than Democrats (who were more likely to be home last week).

    Party ID doesn't shift that quickly - ever.
  • Leonidas
    One poll is not an accurate measurement, tracking polls are more reliable. About Monday we will get a more clear picture of what the situation really is. Also lets face it, national polls are only of limited use, you have to look at swing state polls to get the more important data and even that is limited. A pollster going to someone and getting an answer doesn't mean that person is actually going to go out and vote on election day.
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