But I'm not sure that's a good thing if you're a McCain supporter, since–before the bounce–the race was close to a tie, with McCain a point or two down.

John McCain came into this race with a lot of advantages. He was already well known. He had a reputation as a maverick. He has a compelling personal story of heroism. He was popular with independents. There was a sense among some that he got gypped in the 2000 primaries. He was known to be funny on television.

He should be way ahead of Obama. But he's not, because of the disastrous leadership of his party for the last eight years.

But I'm not sure that's a good thing if you're a McCain supporter, since–before the bounce–the race was close to a tie, with McCain a point or two down.

John McCain came into this race with a lot of advantages. He was already well known. He had a reputation as a maverick. He has a compelling personal story of heroism. He was popular with independents. There was a sense among some that he got gypped in the 2000 primaries. He was known to be funny on television.

He should be way ahead of Obama. But he's not, because of the disastrous leadership of his party for the last eight years.

There are still plenty of older white folk who doubt that a black man can run the presidency. Obama has that uphill battle as well as remaining racism among Southerners. Also, recent events in Georgia and McCain's willingness to tout his days as a POW are working to his advantage.

There are still plenty of older white folk who doubt that a black man can run the presidency. Obama has that uphill battle as well as remaining racism among Southerners. Also, recent events in Georgia and McCain's willingness to tout his days as a POW are working to his advantage.

“Looks like you are still underestimating Obama's abilities.
reply edit reblog “

Looks like your underestimating the judgement of the American people. Its a very tight race and with so many conditions in the political landscape in favor of the democrats, Obama is underperforming and McCain overperforming. That should really make you wonder why.

“Looks like you are still underestimating Obama's abilities.
reply edit reblog “

Looks like your underestimating the judgement of the American people. Its a very tight race and with so many conditions in the political landscape in favor of the democrats, Obama is underperforming and McCain overperforming. That should really make you wonder why.

Also more Democrats voted against the VRA than Republicans.

* Democrats: 47–17
* Republicans: 30–2

It's mainly that instead

House: 333–85

* Democrats: 221–61
* Republicans: 112–2

Also more Democrats voted against the VRA than Republicans.

* Democrats: 47–17
* Republicans: 30–2

It's mainly that instead

House: 333–85

* Democrats: 221–61
* Republicans: 112–2

but the reality is the Democratic Party has captured 90% of the African American vote for President for a long time

It used to be that Republicans were the party black people voted for–the party of Lincoln. The key marker for that change was the passage of the voting rights act of 1964. Democrats became the party of civil rights. Republicans became the party of white anxiety and resentment.

I suppose this is no longer 100% true. But it remains true enough in the absence of any significant outreach by Republicans.

People vote in favor of what they perceive to be their own interest. In the aggregate, 90% (I don't know if this figure is accurate, but I imagine it's close) of black individuals perceive the Democrats as the best choice.

Some might think this presents an opportunity for Republicans to peel away some percentage of black voters. In a closely divided electorate, there is probably some advantage to doing this. I think it would necessarily have to be a long (or medium) term project.

But I imagine there are also short term disadvantages. One would be risking the loss of anxious and resentful white voters.

There is a culture-wide status quo as far as race goes. I think it's an open question as to which side truly benefits.

but the reality is the Democratic Party has captured 90% of the African American vote for President for a long time

It used to be that Republicans were the party black people voted for–the party of Lincoln. The key marker for that change was the passage of the voting rights act of 1964. Democrats became the party of civil rights. Republicans became the party of white anxiety and resentment.

I suppose this is no longer 100% true. But it remains true enough in the absence of any significant outreach by Republicans.

People vote in favor of what they perceive to be their own interest. In the aggregate, 90% (I don't know if this figure is accurate, but I imagine it's close) of black individuals perceive the Democrats as the best choice.

Some might think this presents an opportunity for Republicans to peel away some percentage of black voters. In a closely divided electorate, there is probably some advantage to doing this. I think it would necessarily have to be a long (or medium) term project.

But I imagine there are also short term disadvantages. One would be risking the loss of anxious and resentful white voters.

There is a culture-wide status quo as far as race goes. I think it's an open question as to which side truly benefits.

Among the young (another strong Obama demographic), while he polls well with them, under 30 voters are notorious for not showing up come election day.

I still see a tight race, and there is a lot of support for Obama outside traditional Democratic strengths, but they need to make sure to keep those in the fold.

Of course, it helps when you opponent makes critical mistakes like the Palin selection.

Among the young (another strong Obama demographic), while he polls well with them, under 30 voters are notorious for not showing up come election day.

I still see a tight race, and there is a lot of support for Obama outside traditional Democratic strengths, but they need to make sure to keep those in the fold.

Of course, it helps when you opponent makes critical mistakes like the Palin selection.

You do know that African Americans make up only 13% of the population and that they have voted overwhelmingly for democrats in the previous elections.

This is not a new group. Sure, you’re going to get an increase in the black vote, but at what expense.

The democrats, media and Shaun are on a mindless quest to piss off the 54% of the population that is female. Doesn’t the left get tired of shooting itself in the foot every election cycle?

You do know that African Americans make up only 13% of the population and that they have voted overwhelmingly for democrats in the previous elections.

This is not a new group. Sure, you’re going to get an increase in the black vote, but at what expense.

The democrats, media and Shaun are on a mindless quest to piss off the 54% of the population that is female. Doesn’t the left get tired of shooting itself in the foot every election cycle?

Heck, when you're governor, you already have a bureaucracy to run the state government on autopilot if necessary. Alaska's legislature only meets 90 days a year. The Governor in a sparsely populated state like Alaska is more symbolic – showing up to boost local events – than a hardcore administrator. Remember, her ethics bill that she signed was written by Democrat Ethan Berkowitz (running for Don Young's seat). She had the good sense to sign it. But that's the extent of her reformer cred. And after scandal-plagued Frank Murkowski, she'd be stupid not to sign it.

This is the Lemonade Stand Fallacy: You can run anything if you know how to run a lemonade stand. No you can't.

Heck, when you're governor, you already have a bureaucracy to run the state government on autopilot if necessary. Alaska's legislature only meets 90 days a year. The Governor in a sparsely populated state like Alaska is more symbolic – showing up to boost local events – than a hardcore administrator. Remember, her ethics bill that she signed was written by Democrat Ethan Berkowitz (running for Don Young's seat). She had the good sense to sign it. But that's the extent of her reformer cred. And after scandal-plagued Frank Murkowski, she'd be stupid not to sign it.

This is the Lemonade Stand Fallacy: You can run anything if you know how to run a lemonade stand. No you can't.

It so happens that Barack Obama has a HUGE identity politics following among African Americans and among young people who see him as a real post-Boomer politician. If they actually vote – and so far they have – Obama gets a massive boost. All of that is BEFORE he appeals to those who are neither under 30 nor black.

It so happens that Barack Obama has a HUGE identity politics following among African Americans and among young people who see him as a real post-Boomer politician. If they actually vote – and so far they have – Obama gets a massive boost. All of that is BEFORE he appeals to those who are neither under 30 nor black.