Comments on: No Bounce For Obama ?

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 04:10:25 +0000

We've all (at least most of us) talked about the accuracy of polls on this site over the months. Doesn't Joe G. like to say that it's the trend that's most important? Having said that I must admit that I groan (or swoon) depending on the results of any specific poll.... Though whether I like the poll results or not I remind myself that what's important is what happens at the polls in Nov.

At any rate, I came across this piece about the Des Moines Register poll (taken just before the Iowa caucus) showing that Obama was ahead. Obama went ahead and won 38% (with Edwards at 30% and Clinton at 29%)... THe piece is interesting because Obama's opponents said the Des Moines poll could not be trusted. Apparently the Des Moines poll used a different methodology than other polls...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/01/obama-...

By: Rudi

Rudi — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 03:47:34 +0000

The professional polls use a sample size of at least 3000 and a multiple days average, the cable news polls use a sample size of only 1000. The larger sample size is more accurate.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-...
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/...
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109900/Gallup-Daily-...
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/24/election...

From Rasmussen:

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

From Fox:

Polling was conducted by telephone August 19-20, 2008, in the evenings. The
total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3
percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.
LV = likely voters
Democrats n=378, ±5 percentage points; Republicans n=315, ±5.5 percentage points;
independents n=180, ±7 percentage points
Obama supporters n=379, ±5 percentage points; McCain supporters n=353, ±5 percentage points

By: GeorgeSorwell

GeorgeSorwell — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 03:46:42 +0000

It's your reputation, right?

By: pico13

pico13 — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 03:36:17 +0000

The gallup poll showed the DNC to give Obama a 10 point bounce overall. He was up by 8 yesterday and the day before in that poll, and he lost 2 points today to lead by 6.

Rasmussen showed that the DNC gave Obama about a 4 point bounce and lead. He lost one point today to lead by 3.

Just latch onto whatever poll currently validates your political leanings and go with it. Everyone's happy that way!

By: Patrick E

Patrick E — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 03:32:25 +0000

Actually I merely reported the new CNN poll since it was just announced.

Also, the issue is not the amount of a lead but the amount of a bounce.

By: GeorgeSorwell

GeorgeSorwell — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 03:28:51 +0000

So at least with that poll

Cherry-picking is rather dishonest.

Rasmussen has Obama up by three.

Gallup has Obama up by six.

Of course, it could be you're too concerned with Gustav for due diligence.

By: T_Steel

T_Steel — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 02:52:15 +0000

Bounces are overblown and manufactured. They don't mean anything to the presidential race. How many people are being polled anyhow? 100? 1000? Whatever. Until they can poll at least 15 million people, then I'm not listening.

Yeah I'm being simplistic but so what…

By: vwcat

vwcat — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 02:50:34 +0000

It's CNN.
What do you expect? One poll. uh huh.

Silhouette, I wonder what your excuse is for spending the whole summer throwing little tantrums because you did not get your way.
I see you feel that everything should be about you rather then the country. Typical.

By: Silhouette

Silhouette — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 02:48:06 +0000

I wonder what next week's “explanation” is going to be..

By: elrod

elrod — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 02:27:29 +0000

It's hard to measure a true bounce now because of the Palin pick and the bizarre circumstances surrounding the GOP convention.

Well have to wait until next week to see how things really stand.