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No Bounce For Obama ?
I know we are quite-properly focusing on Gustav, but CNN just announced the release of a new poll on the Presidential race.
The survey was taken after the Democratic Convention and after the Palin announcement so, presumably, Friday/Saturday and part of today.
For reference, prior to the convention CNN had the race tied 47-47
The new poll has Obama ahead 49-48.
So, at least with that poll, it does not seem there was much of a bounce from the convention (nor does any seem likely from the GOP convention).
Again, our main focus should be Gustav but just an interesting side-note as life does go on.
10 Responses to “No Bounce For Obama ?”
It's hard to measure a true bounce now because of the Palin pick and the bizarre circumstances surrounding the GOP convention.
Well have to wait until next week to see how things really stand.
I wonder what next week's “explanation” is going to be..
It's CNN.
What do you expect? One poll. uh huh.
Silhouette, I wonder what your excuse is for spending the whole summer throwing little tantrums because you did not get your way.
I see you feel that everything should be about you rather then the country. Typical.
Bounces are overblown and manufactured. They don't mean anything to the presidential race. How many people are being polled anyhow? 100? 1000? Whatever. Until they can poll at least 15 million people, then I'm not listening.
Yeah I'm being simplistic but so what…
Cherry-picking is rather dishonest.
Rasmussen has Obama up by three.
Gallup has Obama up by six.
Of course, it could be you're too concerned with Gustav for due diligence.
Actually I merely reported the new CNN poll since it was just announced.
Also, the issue is not the amount of a lead but the amount of a bounce.
The gallup poll showed the DNC to give Obama a 10 point bounce overall. He was up by 8 yesterday and the day before in that poll, and he lost 2 points today to lead by 6.
Rasmussen showed that the DNC gave Obama about a 4 point bounce and lead. He lost one point today to lead by 3.
Just latch onto whatever poll currently validates your political leanings and go with it. Everyone's happy that way!
It's your reputation, right?
The professional polls use a sample size of at least 3000 and a multiple days average, the cable news polls use a sample size of only 1000. The larger sample size is more accurate.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-…
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/…
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109900/Gallup-Daily-…
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/24/election…
From Rasmussen:
From Fox:
We've all (at least most of us) talked about the accuracy of polls on this site over the months. Doesn't Joe G. like to say that it's the trend that's most important? Having said that I must admit that I groan (or swoon) depending on the results of any specific poll…. Though whether I like the poll results or not I remind myself that what's important is what happens at the polls in Nov.
At any rate, I came across this piece about the Des Moines Register poll (taken just before the Iowa caucus) showing that Obama was ahead. Obama went ahead and won 38% (with Edwards at 30% and Clinton at 29%)… THe piece is interesting because Obama's opponents said the Des Moines poll could not be trusted. Apparently the Des Moines poll used a different methodology than other polls…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/01/obama-…