The Hurricane and the GOP Convention

As Gustav scrambles the convention, James Joyner raise some good questions:

Realistically, the convention can’t be rescheduled. Or, at least, they’re not going to be able to hold anything like the massive, organized convention they otherwise would have between now and the election. It’s just not logistically possible: Even if they could get a space for it, getting enough hotel rooms, booking that many airplane flights, getting the network coverage set up, getting food catered, and so forth for something on that scale in short order is next to impossible.

Beyond that, one wonders what the impact is on campaign finance law.  As I understand it, the end of the conventions marks the legal start of the general election season.  If the convention were to be postponed, would it also extend the primary season fundraising and spending period?

On the other hand, if they go on with the show, but in a more somber and low key manner, what impact does that have on the race?  Does it reduce McCain’s expected bounce?   Or does delivering a speech by satellite from a disaster area make McCain look more “presidential”?

There are also the optics.  This has already brought back the specter of what was perceived as the poor response of the Bush administration to Hurricane Katrina.  Does this redouble that perception?  Or does another shot at “doing it right” help erase it?

Joyner concludes that this highlights how “external events totally outside the control of the two campaigns will have a tremendous bearing on what happens on Election Day.”

Not surprisingly, TPM’s Joshua Micah Marshall — noting that McCain may deliver his acceptance speech Thursday from the devastation zone if the storm hits with the ferocity feared by forecasters — draws a different conclusion:

I find it disturbing that McCain and Palin have decided to go down to Mississippi this week. A trip like this is worse than opportunism. Let us not forget that McCain doesn’t travel alone; he brings along staff and Secret Service agents, all of whom require the time and attention of local officials. The situation is reminiscent of Rumsfeld’s infamous 9/11 response to rush outside the Pentagon and give orders: the images on TV inspire confidence, at least until one remembers that our leaders are neglecting the responsibilities that are truly meant to keep us safe. Neither McCain nor Palin offer any unique advantage to New Orleans with their presence — they are not Southern politicians, they don’t have any particularly useful contacts in the area and they aren’t emergency responders. (Meanwhile, Obama will not travel to the region but has said he will use his fundraiser lists to coordinate volunteers once damage is assessed.) However, McCain could be particularly helpful from his Senate position, if he so chose. [...]

It can be hard sometimes not to drift towards the spotlight. But that is precisely why we seek leaders with sound judgment, however they come across it.