Conflicting Polls On Obama Convention Bounce And McCain Palin Pick
Get ready…set…and once again choose the poll that fits your particular political bias and scream it to the world (but be sure not to draw attention to contradictory ones)…
But in reality, polls now surfacing are painting seemingly-conflicting pictures of where the race between Democratic Senator Barack Obama and his running mate Senator Joe Biden and Republican Senator John McCain and his running mate Governor Sarah Palin is and is heading.
A USA Today/Gallup Poll shows Obama 8 points ahead with many voters having lots of questions about Palin. And a Zogby poll shows McCain slightly ahead, with the company saying the Palin pick stalled the Democratic bounce and Zogby himself likening the race between a modern day JFK (Obama) and a modern day Truman (McCain).
Zogby attributes the big McCain jump in his polling as conservative GOPers coming home again because they’re so happy over the selection of Palin, who is staunchly pro-life and who some Republicans think can attract former Hillary Clinton supporters whom they feel will overlook her pro-life record.
Meanwhile,
More than a few cautionary notes need to be taken here. (1) The GOP hasn’t begun let alone finished its convention yet. (2) Palin was a surprise and as such had not be vetted by the national news media, which would have happened if her name had come up earlier. So the GOP could be expected to get a convention bounce, if the quickly-growing hurricane heading towards Louisiana doesn’t cause the convention to be postponed. And if there is anything untoward or controversial in Palin’s background it will be coming out in due course in the mainstream media or other news media. More than ever, these polls are snapshots.
Pick the poll and comparison of your choice so it feels comfortable with your bias but here are some details about these three polls:
USA TODAY/Gallup:
Most voters are unfamiliar with John McCain’s new running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, and many question her qualifications to be president, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup poll.
Meanwhile, another Gallup poll shows Barack Obama maintaining an 8 percentage point lead over John McCain following the end of the Democratic convention Thursday.
Republicans begin their four-day convention Monday here even as Hurricane Gustav picks up steam as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Palin is scheduled to speak Wednesday.
In the poll taken Friday, 39 percent said she is ready to serve as president if needed, 33 percent said she isn’t and 29 percent have no opinion.
That’s the lowest rating any running mate has had since then-Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle was selected in 1988 to join George H.W. Bush’s team.By contrast, 57 percent of voters rated Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as qualified after Obama selected him last week. Eighteen percent said he wasn’t qualified.
Meanwhile, the Gallup daily tracking poll shows good news for Obama, following the close of the Democratic National Convention and his high-profile nomination acceptance speech Thursday.
Zogby:
Republican John McCain’s surprise announcement Friday of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate – some 16 hours after Democrat Barack Obama’s historic speech accepting his party’s presidential nomination – has possibly stunted any Obama convention bump, the latest Zogby Interactive flash poll of the race shows.
The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.
In other words, the race is a dead heat.
The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties – Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama’s Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain’s increases to 92%.
Zogby himself writes:
“Palin is not to be underestimated. Her real strength is that she is authentic, a real mom, an outdoors person, a small town mayor (hey, she has dealt with a small town city council – that alone could be preparation for staring down Vladimir Putin, right?). She is also a reformer.”
“A very important demographic in this election is going to be the politically independent woman, 15% of whom in our latest survey are undecided.”
“In the final analysis, this election will be about Obama vs. McCain. Obama has staked out ground as the new JFK – a new generation, literally and figuratively, a new face of America to the world, a man who can cross lines and work with both sides. But McCain is the modern day Harry Truman – with lots of DC experience, he knows what is wrong and dysfunctional with Washington and how to fix it, and he has chosen a running mate who is about as far away from Washington as he could find.
“This contest is likely to be very close until the weekend before the election – then the dam may break and support may flood one way or the other.”
And Zogby finds that 22 percent of Hillary Clinton’s supporters (people who in many cases argued that Clinton was needed in the White House to halt a conservative judge from being appointed who could overturn Roe V Wade) now support McCain.
This may be easier said and strategized than done: at an appearance today, “Sarah Palin was showered with boos…for attempting to praise Clinton’s trail-blazing bid to become the first female president,,” CNN reports.
Rasmussen:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday is the first to include reaction to both Barack Obama’s acceptance speech and John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin to be his running mate. The numbers are little changed since yesterday and show Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 43%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results).
Obama currently leads by thirteen points among women while McCain leads by six among men. Among white women, the candidates are essentially even while McCain holds a substantial lead among white men (see other recent demographic observations).
Sarah Palin made a good first impression. She was unknown nationally before being introduced as the GOP Vice-Presidential pick but is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide. Her counterpart, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 48%. While Palin has made a good first impression, the more significant numbers will come a week from now after the nation has a chance to learn more about her.
Pick the report to trumpet as proof that your ticket will win. Sometime after Labor Day, the polls may all agree — one way or another…
Cartoon by Daryl Cagle, MSNBC.com
UPDATE: More polling data that suggests Palin is not spelled p-a-n-a-c-e-a…
14 Responses to “Conflicting Polls On Obama Convention Bounce And McCain Palin Pick”
[...] Original post by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief [...]
Doesn't the Zogby Interactive Poll have a lousy reputation?
From the September, 2006 Issue of the Columbia Journalism Review:
“When reached by phone last week, Cliff Zukin, a political science professor and polling expert at Rutgers University, suggests that journalists should generally be wary of any Zogby interactive poll.
“The Zogby stuff, on scientific grounds, is quite questionable,” says Zukin. “Online, Internet, opt-in polling, where people volunteer to be respondents, doesn’t really have a basis in scientific validity. There are two kinds of samples in the world. There are probability samples, and there are non-probability samples.”
The Zogby interactive polls, says Zukin, clearly fall into the latter camp. “With probability samples, when everybody has a known chance of being selected, you can make pretty valid inferences about the population from which it is drawn,” says Zukin. “You can’t do that at all with self-selected surveys. That’s a problem.”
Here's the link to Rasmussen, which shows Obama ahead by four points. That's as big a lead as either candidate has had for some time, according to the notoriously Republican-leaning Rasmussen.
The Real Clear Politics aggregator doesn't include Zogby, which is considered unreliable by many. Of the two polls taken that might show a bounce, Rasmussen has Obama up by 4, Gallup has Obama up by 8. The average, covering the the period 08/18 – 08/29 (i.e, including pre-bounce polling) has Obama up by 3.9.
Presumably, the selection of Palin was intended to squelch any bounce. We won't know if that happened for a few days. We also won't know if Palin really helps for a few days. As you said, that might be easier strategized than done.
[...] [...]
Zogby runs two different types of polls: a telephone survey and an online poll. The telephone survey is legitimate and should be taken seriously. The “Zogby Interactive” online poll is garbage and nobody in the polling business pays it any mind. It is completely erratic, showing Obama leading in South Carolina and Arizona at one point this year, and now showing McCain leading. It was garbage then and garbage now.
More interesting is that among undecided voters, Palin is most unimpressive. She rallies the GOP base. But they were rallied by the crap campaign this summer; Republicans love that Rovian trash. But undecided voters – especially women – saw Palin's pick as a joke.
Great graphic, by the way!
Palin’s issue is not “experience.” Palin is a woman who admits she has never CONSIDERED America’s place in the world. While she is not “stupid” (far from it in fact), she is “ignorant” of the threats this nation faces and how to meet them.
Additionally, her positions on Women’s Rights issues are far out of the mainstream. She is anti-choice EVEN if the mother’s life is in danger, even in the case of incest and even in the case of rape. She is even against birth control including the use of condoms by married couples. She is a far right Evangelical Christian Creationist from a tiny crazy-right religious community in a valley in Alaska.
This woman is so far out of the mainstream on every issue, so “ignorant” on SO MANY issues that she does not bear any serious consideration.
AND YET – SHE is NOT the issue – her judgement is not the issue – her “ignorance” on most every important issue is not the issue – her sex is not the issue. THE ISSUE is John McCain’s LACK OF JUDGEMENT in even thinking for a second that this woman should be a heartbeat away from the Presidency. Mrs Palin is a fine woman, a GREAT mother and an exemplary Alaskan – none of which matters – none of which is an issue.
John McCain – by choosing her over so many others each so vastly more qualified, competent, qualified, informed and available is AN INSULT TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE and shows that in his case “MAVERICK” means as Obama said about him – “JOHN, YOU JUST DON’T GET IT!”
Once again, Mylegacy, same comment that I made to Elrod: Can you document some of what you're saying about Gov. Palin, particularly the comment about no condom use by married couples? It seems plausible, but I like to see back-up.
The “Zogby Interactive” online poll is garbage
Sure they do. The average run of the mill non political junkie who flips thru the paper and sees a headline that says McCain is leading by 2 points and goes on might say somewhere in the back of his/her mind…….Hmmm interesting. A woman and a wrinkly white haired old dude is leading against a black and wrinkly white haired old dude. I might just vote for the woman this time.
Again. Not everyone in America are political junkies like the people who hang out on bloggs and comment. Years and years ago I used to believe the papers and the television news too. I was shocked once I started looking into things at the perspective and the agendas each had. My worlds not been the same since.
Neocon: Hmmm interesting. A woman and a wrinkly white haired old dude is leading against a black and wrinkly white haired old dude. I might just vote for the woman this time.
Perhaps so. But sooner or later they're also going to hear a little something about her views — or lack of them. So I guess we'll see. Personally, I suspect she's going to have a very long, up-hill climb. But I may be wrong. So far I haven't heard even one post-VP pick interview with her yet. I have no idea how she's going to come across without a script. For all we know it may be something like this.
damn. so McCain bows to the extreme right-wing and picks someone who has no experience but helps him with the zealots like Rush Limbaugh. I miss the old McCain, the one I voted for in the primary in 2000. The one who let slip that if his daughter got pregnant, it would be her decision (to have an abortion). The senator who reached across the isle and was as popular with other democratic senators as republicans.
instead we get another version of Bush, same story but a different face. I was already fed up with McCain, but his choice of Palin not only solidifies my vote for Obama, but I'll be donating to him as well. McCain just showed us that he's more interested in becoming president, no matter what that does to our country.
Rico
Ill put her views up against Obama. The problem is you guys are comparing apples and oranges.
When Biden was nominated the GOP did not go ape over Biden. They just pointed out what he said about Obama and his record. Hes got a lot of record that will be defined in the next 60 days or so.
However the fact that you guys are comparing Palin to Obama is silly on your part.
It just points to the glaring weakness of YOUR candidate. Obama will begin OJT in the WHITE HOUSE. Palin will begin the OJT down the street in the executive building. Huge difference.
Comparing Obama to Palin is a losing position for the democrats. That is all Im pointing out when I seem to be defending Palin.
Im most likely not going to vote at all or will vote for Barr. However I get dumped on here quite regularly for simply pointing out the obvious that it seems no one wants to hear. My above post was an example that seems to refelct negatively on Obama therefore Bash the Neocon.
Palin could be in the White House on Day 2, or Hour 2 of McCain's presidency. McCain is an old guy. A cancer survivor, He went through “enhanced interrogation” in Vietnam. He could be assassinated. His plane could crash. Any number of things could happen and Palin needs to be able to assume the presidency on a moment's notice.
Do you honestly feel comfortable with her qualifications to be president on day one if disaster strikes?
Do you honestly feel comfortable with her qualifications to be president on day one if disaster strikes?
As much if not more so then I do for Barak Obama's.
Palin has shown a history of being in your face, argumentative and able to get things done. Obama has shown he wants everyone to get along. Be buddy, buddy.
His message is the most bizarre piece of politics I have ever seen. Not that I disagree with his message but the base defines the president. Obama's base hardly want to be conjolers and lets all get along fanatics.
Their idea of bipartisanship is to have a cloture proof majority and just tell America what the new rules are.