Is it Quaylenty?

No, I don’t know yet who John McCain will pick for his Vice President. But buzz has picked up considerably today that he will select Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

If you want the basic skinny on Pawlenty, see here. He is a very right-wing governor elected in 2002 with 44% of the vote and re-elected with 46.7% of the vote in 2006. A third party candidate allowed Pawlenty to squeak through both times.

More important is the reasoning behind picking Pawlenty. Every other possible VP threatened the Christian conservative base of the GOP: Lieberman, Ridge, and Hutchison are all pro-choice and unacceptable to the Christianists who control the party. Mitt Romney, who may still yet be the option, provides so much fodder for populist assault after his divisive primary.

So it looks like Tim Pawlenty. Because he satisfies the base.

But Karl Rove said something on Fox News this evening that calls this pick into question. He said that the pick shouldn’t be designed to win a state or appease a constituency, but should be someone ready to step in and serve as President in a moment’s notice.

So, does Tim Pawlenty really fulfill that demand? Is Tim Pawlenty really ready to step in as President?

This pick, if true, resembles Dan Quayle’s selection to serve as George H. W. Bush’s VP in 1988. Quayle had as much experience as Pawlenty up to that time, though mostly in the Senate. Quayle was picked to satisfy the religious conservative base of the GOP uneasy with Bush. Yes, Bush won that election. But Quayle was a widely mocked pick for his lightweight bearing and inadequacy to serve if Bush could not finish his term. His debate with Lloyd Bentsen was one of the biggest mismatches in recent political history.

So it looks like it’s Quaylenty. A lightweight far-right Governor who never won a majority of his home state and whose selection is designed to serve the social conservative wing of the Republican Party.

Oh, and his debate with Joe Biden already makes Republican operatives (including former GOP Senator from Minnesota Dave Durenberger) very nervous.

Will it be Quaylenty?