Gallup Poll: An Obama Convention Bounce?

Is Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama getting a modest convention bounce? It depends on the poll, and the eye of the beholder.

Gallup now shows Obama with a 6 point lead over rival Republican Senator John McCain. Rasmussen: with a one point lead.

Democratic candidate Barack Obama has gained ground in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking average from Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and now leads Republican John McCain among registered voters by a 48% to 42% margin.

The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, and is no doubt beginning to reflect the typical convention “bounce” that Gallup has observed in most party conventions in recent decades. There is a lag of sorts involved in the daily tracking; interviewing is conducted in most parts of the country before that evening’s high-focus speeches have taken place. Thus, the current three-day average would reflect any impact of Monday night’s speech by Michelle Obama, and Tuesday night’s speech by Hillary Clinton, but would not completely reflect Wednesday night’s lineup of speakers, such as John Kerry, former President Bill Clinton, and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden, nor the appearance on stage at the end of the evening by Barack Obama himself.

So Obama’s poll numbers could possibly be bigger (or smaller).

Rasmussen notes a small bounce and how Obama’s selection of Sen. Joe Biden angered Hillary Clinton supporters:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama. The Democrat gained a point from yesterday and now attracts 45% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 47%.

Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average–shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That had little or nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with the fact that the running mate was not named Hillary Clinton. The impact of that choice was reflected in the polling results released Tuesday and Wednesday showing modest gains for McCain.

However, events are moving rapidly this season and the impact of the convention is starting to replace the impact of the Vice Presidential announcement. New polling data shows that 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the party and 84% believe Hillary Clinton’s speech will help Obama in the fall.

Tonight Obama will make his speech and — if it is a good speech and gets substantial media coverage and television viewership — his numbers should go up even more.

Until next week…when the GOP has it’s convention and its say and Obama’s numbers will likely to go down as McCain’s rise.

And then it’s off to the campaign and away from the glorified infomercials created by both parties.