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Obama Nominated Against Backdrop Of Troubling New Poll

Illinois Senator Barack Obama is now officially the Democratic nominee for President and historically the first African-American to head a major political party’s Presidential ticket. But the nomination came against a poll that will rain on the Democratic convention parade indicating Obama is losing the support of conservative Democrats.

The nomination took place with chief rival Sen. Hillary Clinton — who ran an equally-historical campaign — playing a key and symbolic role:

Sen. Hillary Clinton asked to cut the roll call short saying, “With eyes firmly fixed on the future, and in the spirit of unity with the goal of victory, with faith in our party and our country, let’s declare together with one voice right here, right now that Barack Obama is our candidate and he will be our president.”

“Is there a second?” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California asked the crowd of more than 4,400 delegates.

Delegates then affirmed Obama as their choice with cheers.

“The motion is adopted,” Pelosi said with a broad smile, officially capping a long and hard-fought battle between Obama and Clinton.

There were hugs and handshakes as “Love Train” blasted from the arena speakers.

But there are signs the tracks on the “Love Train” are increasingly wobbly, according to a new Gallup poll:

Within the Democratic Party, Obama’s losses are primarily evident among the relatively small group that describes its political views as conservative. The 63% of conservative Democrats supporting Obama over McCain in Aug. 18-24 polling is the lowest Obama has earned since he clinched the Democratic nomination in June. At the same time, there have been no similar drops in support for Obama in the preferences of liberal or moderate Democrats.

As a result of this, support for Obama among all Democratic registered voters fell from 81% in early August (Aug. 4-10) to 78% last week (Aug. 18-24). Obama’s support from Republicans over this period also dipped from 9% to 7%, while 42% to 43% of independents have consistently supported him.

Not a good omen. And next week the GOP has its convention, but don’t look for the party to lose one second in staying on message about Obama…the same message that has apparently worked if you look at Obama’s steady slide in the polls. And it is a big slide:

The 78% of Democrats backing Obama from Aug. 18-24 ties for the lowest seen since early June. The 7% of Republicans for Obama is the lowest to date (since the start of Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the Obama-McCain race in March).

Could Hillary Clinton’s speech and unity-seeking symbolic role in the roll call vote help gain some of those Democrats back? Democrats — above all — will be watching the convention. Will Bill Clinton, Biden and Obama help reassure them? It’s a “given” Biden and Obama will be trying to do so and Bill Clinton (stay tuned…)…

  • Silhouette
    Ignore the polls!

    It's time to get behind Barack Obama!

    Emphasizing the old saying "Be careful what you wish for."
  • elrod
    A couple thoughts here. How many conservative Democrats are there? Seriously, are conservative Democrats more than 20% of the whole party? And how many conservative Democrats EVER vote Democratic in national races? In KY and WV, 30% of Democrats voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004.

    There may be two categories of "conservative Democrats" here. One are cultural conservatives for whom race is a big obstacle. I've talked to people here in Tennessee who are Democrats and will not vote for Obama because they think he will "give everything to the blacks."

    But those voters were NEVER in Obama's camp.

    The trend line, if it isn't noise, follows news events over the last month. And the biggest issue is foreign policy, not culture. Note Obama's peak at 72% in late July when Obama traveled abroad. Since then McCain has accused Obama of treason and warmongered over Georgia. Some of these conservative Democrats may have felt that Obama was missing in the whole discussion.

    I suspect that tonight and tomorrow night will fire up support among these national security Democrats again. Joe Biden is exactly the right man for these voters. And when Obama, Biden and hopefully Bill Clinton make the case that John McCain is a dangerous man for the White House, as well as validate Obama's ability to serve as Commander in Chief (which was done well in the overseas trip), Obama will bounce back up.
  • JSpencer
    I know most of us like to think the country is past this, and therefore it isn't a polite subject for conversation, and some folks even like to dismiss it as though it's some sort of excuse rather than a reality - but the sad fact is, rascism is going to be no small factor in this election. Closet rascism and quiet rascism is no less ugly for being covert. Knowing this to be true makes me want Obama to win all the more.
  • GeorgeSorwell
    Polls show that McCain and Obama are both about equally popular.

    John McCain has been a national figure for a long time. He has a compelling personal story. He's enjoyed a reputation as a maverick.

    Maybe he's the one who should be far out in the lead?

    Maybe this explains why McCain is doing anything and everything to drive down Obama's popularity.

    How does the conventional wisdom get formed? Isn't it our dumb media that decides?

    How much have they gotten wrong so far this election?
  • Silhouette
    Ignore those darn polls anyway.

    It doesn't matter how far Obama falls behind or how much he lacks against McCain for Commander In Chief in time of war, he WILL WIN in November!

    Just sprinkle some magic stardust and he will overcome any compelling and formidable barrier to electability.

    *note to self: call broker, transfer all investments to "magic stardust"*
  • GeorgeSorwell
    You may not have heard, but President Bush and Senator McCain are moving toward the Obama plan for troop pullout, in time of war.

    And a fair number of Republicans question McCain's bellicose temperament.
  • JSpencer
    Silhouette, cynicism is overated.
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