i'm not saying that obama will win regardless, i'm saying that to have expected him to maintain such a lead thru-out the campaign, and then to pound one's chest in anxious bemoaning when he didn't, is entering drama queen territory.

i'm not saying that obama will win regardless, i'm saying that to have expected him to maintain such a lead thru-out the campaign, and then to pound one's chest in anxious bemoaning when he didn't, is entering drama queen territory.

The voting markets have been generally accurate in the past, and one sees a consistent trend here.

The voting markets have been generally accurate in the past, and one sees a consistent trend here.

Of course, what if President McCain feels compelled to justify appearances by reality with a conflict over Georgia?

It is one thing to stand up to the Russians over clearly defined principles of strategic value — like Reagan and long battle over stationing of missles in W. Europe to counterbalance Soviet SS-20s — but McCain's shouting about Georgia is disturbing.

Georgia has been in the Russian sphere since the Czarist empire. It is on the other side of the Black Sea, after all. How would Americans react were Russia to rattle swords in the U.S. back yard?

Like yourself, I find McCain shouting on this issue troubling. I hope you are wrong, however, about people being impressed by it.

Of course, what if President McCain feels compelled to justify appearances by reality with a conflict over Georgia?

It is one thing to stand up to the Russians over clearly defined principles of strategic value — like Reagan and long battle over stationing of missles in W. Europe to counterbalance Soviet SS-20s — but McCain's shouting about Georgia is disturbing.

Georgia has been in the Russian sphere since the Czarist empire. It is on the other side of the Black Sea, after all. How would Americans react were Russia to rattle swords in the U.S. back yard?

Like yourself, I find McCain shouting on this issue troubling. I hope you are wrong, however, about people being impressed by it.

In the meantime, the picture remains pretty much as it has been. There is some convergence but Obama remains the leader. And what do you hear on the street?

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08…

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08…

In the meantime, the picture remains pretty much as it has been. There is some convergence but Obama remains the leader. And what do you hear on the street?

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08…

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08…

That is true in general for the GOP overall, too.

That is true in general for the GOP overall, too.

I hate to seem like I'm beating a dead horse here, but of course most people are clueless about Georgia and care even less.

But McCain seems tough. Just like President Bush seemed tough.

I hate to seem like I'm beating a dead horse here, but of course most people are clueless about Georgia and care even less.

But McCain seems tough. Just like President Bush seemed tough.

Perhaps you are right, GeorgeS. I disagree, as I believe most people are clueless about Georgia . . . and care even less during August holidays.

It is a fine line between strength and angry belligerence. McCain is certainly on that line now (who wants a fight with Russia, over Georgia, with a 100,000+ troops in Iraq?). It would not take very much for Obama's team to frame him negatively on that score.

I concede that Obama's team has been caught flat-footed by McCain's ad-based resurgence . . . and they need to ramp up their own ad buys . . . there is more than enough time to do this.

More importantly:

In the Presidential debates, Americans — who probably have not focused on Obama, beyond seeing him on magazine covers — will see a man who responds thoughtfully to questions, with a substantial depth. I.E. not a “dumb blonde” celebrity!

This will negate McCain's KEY (perhaps only) advantage to date. Obama supporters should think about that.

Perhaps you are right, GeorgeS. I disagree, as I believe most people are clueless about Georgia . . . and care even less during August holidays.

It is a fine line between strength and angry belligerence. McCain is certainly on that line now (who wants a fight with Russia, over Georgia, with a 100,000+ troops in Iraq?). It would not take very much for Obama's team to frame him negatively on that score.

I concede that Obama's team has been caught flat-footed by McCain's ad-based resurgence . . . and they need to ramp up their own ad buys . . . there is more than enough time to do this.

More importantly:

In the Presidential debates, Americans — who probably have not focused on Obama, beyond seeing him on magazine covers — will see a man who responds thoughtfully to questions, with a substantial depth. I.E. not a “dumb blonde” celebrity!

This will negate McCain's KEY (perhaps only) advantage to date. Obama supporters should think about that.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily…