In Colorado, it’s like oil and water

As regular readers know, I’ve been watching the COPM states (Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan) to get a feel for who will be moving into 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. next January. Whichever candidate can carry at least three of those four will make the path to victory for their opponent a virtual impossibility. The first of those, Colorado, has been generating a lot of news this weekend. Early reports, from both The Rocky Mountain News and 538.com, showed Obama’s previous slim but steady lead in the Centennial State evaporating in the latest polls to a virtual tie. (A couple of polls now show McCain with a slight lead, while 538’s cumulative analysis has Obama up by less than 1%.) Bob Barr is polling 2% and Ralph Nader gets 1%, so third party candidates are thus far not having a large impact.

However, if those polls are run again next week, there might be an unpleasant surprise in the offing for John McCain. It seems he gave an interview with The Pueblo Chieftain and broke one of the sacred laws of the mountain folk: you don’t mess with their water rights. (Hat tip to mcjoan at KOS.) The unofficial motto of Colorado is “whiskey’s for drinking, water’s for fighting.”

“I don’t think there’s any doubt the major, major issue is water and can be as important as oil. So the compact that is in effect, obviously, needs to be renegotiated over time amongst the interested parties,” McCain said while on his way to the Aspen Institute. “I think that there’s a movement amongst the governors to try, if not, quote, renegotiate, certainly adjust to the new realities of high growth, of greater demands on a scarcer resource.”

In a situation reminiscent of late night comics discussing George W. Bush, McCain immediately managed to prove to be a uniter rather than a divider. Democratic Senator Ken Salazar responded immediately.

“Senator McCain’s position on opening up the Colorado River Compact is absolutely wrong and would only happen over my dead body,” Salazar said. “It’s an anathema to the fundamental principles of Colorado’s water rights and our compacts.”

And the Republicans? They may just have to agree.

“Over my cold, dead, political carcass,” Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bob Schaffer said.

“The compact is the only protection Colorado has from several more politically powerful downstream states,” Schaffer added. “Opening it for renegotiation would be the equivalent of a lamb discussing with a pack of wolves what should be on the dinner menu.”

The next step isn’t hard to predict. Team Obama – assuming they have two functioning brain cells left to rub together – will already be in production on a new ad to run all over Colorado quoting McCain on this and they’ll keep running it until November 5th. And the Illinois Senator won’t have any trouble finding allies in the press out there. The Denver Post already weighed in on it.

Forget about winning our nine electoral votes next November. We don’t vote for water rustlers in this state; we tar and feather them!

Attention: Damage Control Team. Please report to Colorado. There’s a major spill to be cleaned up.