Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Third parties to have an impact in ’08?
When political reporters run low on topics to write about, they often turn their attention to third parties–the “lovable losers” of American politics. They never win at the presidential level but often are called upon to add color to campaigns that are sometimes badly in need of it.
Not since 1972 has a third party actually won an electoral vote. Not since 1968 has an independent or third party candidate carried a state. What interest they draw is usually reserved for “celebrity candidates,” which New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg would certainly have been if he had chosen to mount an independent candidacy in 2008.
When he did not, the brief focus on third parties rapidly receded. But in a close election this fall they could emerge as the balance of power, drawing votes that could tip battleground states to Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain. Or maybe, if a number of states are closely contested, they might push some states to Obama and others to McCain.
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