Powell Endorsement Of Obama Coming Soon?

Will former Secretary of State Colin Powell endorse Democratic presumptive nominee Senator Barack Obama? Yes…wait…he might not. Will Powell go to the Democratic convention to endorse Obama? Yes…wait…he might not.

Once again Colin Powell, the charismatic military former military commander with the great bio, is in the spotlight and continuing his role as one of the most respected and also discounted political rock stars in the nation. Republicans love him when he is toeing the party line. Democrats love him when he seems to be bucking the party and administration line. Republicans discount his importance when he doesn’t hold the party line. Democrats say he was a lousy Secretary of State when he isn’t breaking with the party line.

Today, political pundits and reporters were having a field day after Weekly Standard bigwig Bill Kristol suggested that Powell would not only endorse Obama but go to the Demmie convention to do it to boot.

Kristol is a contributor at Fox News and he told this network:”“He may well give a speech at the Democratic convention explaining his endorsement of Obama.” Kristol said his tip came from inside sources:

“This is not an absolute done deal, but these people are very confident that Powell will endorse Obama,” Kristol said, adding that he thinks Powell, a Republican, still has “a high respect” for John McCain, Obama’s Republican rival.

Powell immediately denied the report to Fox and later told ABC News that he has no plans to go to the convention. And he had icy comments in particular for Bill Kristol — who sometimes is to solid political reporting what Fox News contributor Dick Morris is to accurate political crystal ball gazing:

“I do not have time to waste on Bill Kristol’s musings,” Powell told ABC News. “I am not going to the convention. I have made this clear.”

He ended the conversation before he could get the big follow-up question — on whether he’ll endorse Obama.
He also emailed the Washington Post:

“I am not attending either political convention,” Powell wrote in an e-mail. “As I have said for some time, I know both candidates and I am studying their positions and statements. I have not decided who I will vote for.”

Meanwhile, Powell’s spokesman stressed that Powell won’t be going to either convention — but left the door for an endorsement (of someone) open.

And Former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski told the Huffington Post that he “expects” Gen. Colin Powell to endorse Obama.

What’s going on here?

Both candidates clearly want Powell’s endorsement, even though supporters of each candidate will diss Powell if they think he’s leaning towards the other one.

To McCain, a Powell endorsement would signal to crucial independent swing voters that he indeed is still the “maverick” who isn’t a cookie-cutter establishment Republican. McCain also has a friendship and professional relationship with California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, which is an endorsement that matters to independents. Most important, it would also signal that military man Powell would feel and perhaps sleep better with military man McCain at the Oval Office helm.

To Obama, a Powell endorsement would be a huge “get.” It’s the flip-side of McCain receiving the endorsement. It would signal to independent voters that Obama is truly someone who can reach across the aisle and is not the stereotypical Democrat. It would also signal that military man Powell would feel comfortable with non-military man Obama at the Oval Office helm. It would also be interpreted by some as Powell giving a finger in the eye to the Bush administration for the way he was treated and the damage serving it did to his reputation in some circles.

In fact, if Powell endorses Obama, GOPers will likely suggest it’s because he is the equivalent of a disgruntled administration employee (but he hasn’t done it yet, so he is presumably now “gruntled.”).

Prediction: It’s unlikely Powell will sit this one out — if only because both sides will be clamoring and pressuring through their associates to get Powell to endorse them and he’ll be under pressure not to do something that will favor one side…until he endorses.

And then he’ll be the target of demeaning comments from the side of whatever candidate he didn’t endorse — the same folks who are clamoring for his endorsement now.

HERE’S A CROSS-SECTION OF SOME OTHER OPINION:

–Andrew Sullivan:

If Powell were considering such an endorsement, Kristol would do all he can to derail it. Prematurely leaking it, creating a fire-storm and forcing Powell to deny is one way to pre-empt such a move. It’s vital for the neocons to prevent Obama gaining traction with serious foreign policy machers.

But it makes sense in one obvious way: Powell understands how deep a hole the US is in internationally, and how only Obama truly has a chance to get the country back on its feet. It’s the impulse of a patriot. And maybe the smears have made him mad.

–Atlas Shrugs:

I love when this happens. When the mask comes off and everything you’ve suspected comes tearing into the cold light of day. I was right about that mole. What is Bush thinking?

….I always thought he was a closet Democrat. Bush had the knack of surrounding himself with the best, Cheney, Rumsfeld Bolton and the the worst - Powell, Armitage, rice, Hadley Burns (and the worst won out!). Bolton nailed Powell in his book Surrender is not an Option. He did it diplomatically, but if you read it, you knew Powell was weak, lacked integrity.

–Marc Ambinder:

It’s true that the Obama campaign is trying to line up some high-profile Republicans, but I do not think Powell will be one of them.

–Jonathan Singer:

For what it’s worth, Kristol is about as far from a straight ahead reporter as they come, and just about everything he writes comes from a partisan Republican perspective. What’s more, Powell’s spokesman is emphatically denying that Powell will be at either party’s convention in the coming weeks. That said, and even considering that Powell’s stature was greatly diminished as a result of his help in the Bush administration’s push for war with Iraq in 2002 and 2003, a Powell endorsement of Obama would be fairly big news and would go a long way towards reinforcing the notion that Obama is the type of leader who could transcend traditional political and partisan divides in the country.

–LA Times blog:

Kristol is an articulate, effective polemicist for the conservative causes he believes in and a top-notch editor of the Weekly Standard. But well-sourced among “people” with direct links to Obama?

We were skeptical. And shortly after Kristol’s report, Powell scotched at least part of it….Powell is a past master at keeping the political world guessing..He never took the plunge in ‘96. And whether he becomes a public presence in this campaign — or remains on the sidelines — will be one of the fascinating subplots to watch through election day.

–Allahpunditprobably has the best theory on what happened, given how easily the new and old media are manipulated for political tactical and strategical ends:

Is there any political figure in America whose endorsement would mean more to Barry O? Impeccable military credentials, “reformed” Bush cabinet member, harbinger of the very sort of post-racial crossover appeal The One is desperately seeking, and a spectacular counter to Lieberman’s own imminent Zell Miller-ish turn at the Republican convention. But is it true? Powell’s said before he won’t be attending either convention and his spokeswoman denies today’s story to Fox in strong terms. I had the same hunch Geraghty did, that someone in the GOP leaked this to Kristol towards some strategic end knowing that it’d be hugely publicized — but, er, towards what end? And why leak it through Kristol when that’s only going to highlight the fact that conservative fingerprints are on it?