Russia’s dangerous steps to a new Cold War

The Russian invasion of Georgia has removed the lid over the simmering tensions between Russia and the Western allies that could easily turn into a new Cold War, stoked by hardliners on both sides.

This “Cool War” is low intensity compared to the one with the former Soviet Union but the mistrust between Russia and the Western democracies can no longer be papered over and will take a long time to heal.

The US is faced with a fait accompli. Russia has effectively obtained a conquest over disputed territory through war. It cannot claim self-defense or pre-emption because it was not threatened in any way. Therefore, its military intentions can no longer be fully trusted in any situation.

This is the most dangerous contemporary development in geopolitics. It is far more dangerous than international Islamic terrorism because it may again divide world nations into rival groups probably centered on the US or EU, or Russia or China.

The groups would be polite to one another but remain separated by undercurrents of suspicion. The distrust will fuel arms races and provide a bonanza for non-State terrorists because the opportunities for leakages of weapons sales and technologies for weapons of mass destruction would increase exponentially.

Each group could use non-State fighters as proxies to conduct wars of attrition similar to what the US did in Soviet-dominated Afghanistan, Pakistan is doing in Indian Kashmir and Iran is doing through Hezbollah, Hamas and Shiite militias in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq.

These likely outcomes must be kept in mind as Washington confers with its NATO and other allies in coming days and weeks on how to handle Russia. The worst outcome would be a slide down this treacherous slope because of hubris in Western capitals.

Shoddier still would be more of the short-sighted White House thinking that created the quicksands of Iraq and Afghanistan and roused Iran to speed up its drive for nuclear weapons.

The challenge is how to set limits to Russian resurgence without pushing its back so far to the wall that it prefers a Cold War to cooperation with the West. That must include giving it the security space it craves.

Russia is paranoid about being surrounded by pro-US governments along its borders. It called a truce only after destroying Georgia’s main military bases near South Ossetia and Abkhazia, thus making it impossible for President Mikheil Saakashvili to reclaim those territories through force.

As a result, the strongly pro-American Saakashvili may lose the next elections allowing Russia to neutralize American influence in Georgia. If Saakashvili prefers to fight for those territories again, the Russians may advance further into Georgia to thoroughly destroy its army. That would surely cause a full-fledged Cold War, or more, with the West.

Russian paranoia is not entirely misplaced. Currently, American forces are much closer to Russia’s territory than ever before. They are present in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Georgia as well as across the Middle East and Central Asia. All of these new European countries are currently hostile to Russia. The US is also weaning India away from dependence on Russian weapons.

Recent history is not reassuring for Moscow. After the Soviet Union fell, the US, Britain and European Union took advantage of the newly-emerging Russia’s many weaknesses to strip away almost all its sphere of influence close to its frontiers.

In effect, the Western allies have peacefully annexed almost all countries previously in the Soviet sphere of influence by using NATO or EU membership or both. That has drastically changed the balance of power in Europe for Russia.

Insisting that Russia should not fear NATO is naïve especially since the US and its key allies bombed Serbia, a Russian ally, and this year rejected Russian pleas not to recognize Kosovo’s independence. The US is also close to locating anti-missile systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, which could be used against Russia just as easily as against Iran, North Korea or China.

Kosovo’s independence and long-standing US support for Georgia’s positions on Abkhazia and South Ossetia humiliate Russia because it seems no longer capable of protecting its friends against US and European pressure. Whatever the rights and wrongs of Russia’s perceptions, rubbing its nose in its diplomatic and economic weakness compared with the West is unwise.

Modern Russia is nothing like the Soviet Union but the Russian people, who suffered greatly in 20th century European wars, are still prickly about national pride and paranoid about security. The US must recognize these emotional blockages even if they seem needless or irrational.

Currently, Georgia is the largest recipient of US military aid after Israel and is being groomed for full NATO membership together with Ukraine despite Russian protests and threats. Through the invasion, a resurgent and oil-rich Moscow has sent a loud message to the Western allies saying, “Enough is enough!” The bear has been pushed too far.

The immediate goal must be to prevent Moscow from becoming convinced that the US and Europe are perfidious and want to emasculate its power in the world’s eyes.

The current conflict is the first concrete signal that Moscow, if pushed further, will no longer hesitate to assert its military power as a rival of the West even at risk of a new Cold War.