Is WWIII far away? Armageddon? —

http://www.patriotsrevolt.com

http://www.eaglesnest-2.net/eagles/

But he has a hate-on for me

I think energy is only part of the issue in Georgia right now. The BTC pipeline is already built and nobody will undo that.

Right, dream on, or better yet talk to the Nigerians.

Bloomberg

Nigeria Attack

A weekend attack in Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, forced Royal Dutch Shell Plc to reduce output, the Associated Press reported May 3, citing the company. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, claimed responsibility for the assault.

MEND has targeted Shell-operated pipelines in Nigeria, forcing the company to halt 170,000 barrels a day of exports of Bonny Light crude.

Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Nigeria unit will probably return to its normal rate of oil production of about 860,000 barrels a day by the middle of the week following the settlement of a labor strike, a government spokesman said.

Nigerian attack closes oilfield

Oil company Royal Dutch Shell says it has temporarily stopped production at its main offshore oilfield in Nigeria, following a militant attack.

The raid took place overnight on the Bonga oil platform about 120km (75 miles) off the coast of the Niger Delta, the company said.

It is the first attack on the oilfield, which normally produces about 200,000 barrels a day.

Oil infrastucture is amazingly fragile and spread out, if the locals want to destroy it, it will be destroyed.

Israel seeks pipeline for Iraqi oil

Plans to build a pipeline to siphon oil from newly conquered Iraq to Israel are being discussed between Washington, Tel Aviv and potential future government figures in Baghdad.

The plan envisages the reconstruction of an old pipeline, inactive since the end of the British mandate in Palestine in 1948, when the flow from Iraq's northern oilfields to Palestine was re-directed to Syria.

Now, its resurrection would transform economic power in the region, bringing revenue to the new US-dominated Iraq, cutting out Syria and solving Israel's energy crisis at a stroke.

It would also create an end less and easily accessible source of cheap Iraqi oil for the US guaranteed by reliable allies other than Saudi Arabia – a keystone of US foreign policy for decades and especially since 11 September 2001.

Until 1948, the pipeline ran from the Kurdish-controlled city of Mosul to the Israeli port of Haifa, on its northern Mediterranean coast.

Pipelines can always be closed.

Dave,
You have the interest of the US and that of the Oil companies confused, The US wants cheap, dependable & reliable energy, the Oil companies want the US to secure their supply of Oil, their trade routes and keep their dictatorial puppet governments in power so that they can just sell it to the highest bidder.

The issue is spheres of influence. Russia wants an unfettered sphere of influence along its border. Putin uses all sorts of threats and promises to maintain influence in his neighborhood. Georgia has obviously not been friendly to Putin of late.

But Georgia also has its own sphere of influence issue. South Ossetia is not ethnically Georgian and has NEVER been a part of unfettered Georgia; immediately after Georgia's independence South Ossetia rebelled against the new republic and established a de facto independent state allied with Russia. But Saakavhili wants South Ossetia back under Georgian control so it can keep a hold on all the land south of the Caucasus Mountains (the extremely large Caucasus mountains separate North and South Ossetia). Saak calls it “territorial sovereignty” but it's really a sphere of influence for Georgia given the fact that South Ossetia does not want to be part of Georgia.

Saak calculated, wrongly, that appeals to 1938 and the West will summon the cavalry for his “national unity” gambit. He was embarrassingly wrong, as even the Bush Administration offers nothing more than milquetoast requests for Russia to leave and all sides to be peaceful.

Putin calculated, rightly, that he could humiliate his Georgian rival by responding to the South Ossetia crisis with overwhelming force and send a message to Georgia that NATO is a paper ally.

There really isn't anything Bush or the West can do there. Everybody knows Bush needs Russia to pressure Iran on nukes. And everybody knows the UNSC will do nothing about this. Saak blew this and now the whole Georgian democratic experiment is in jeopardy.

What a joke! Carter was a disaster on energy as he was on foreign policy in general. Reagan managed to jawbone the Saudis out of the OPEC two-tier system in the mid-eighties & GHWB as VeeP actually told King Fahd to lower the price to $18/bbl, which the Saudis promptly did. By the time GHWB was elected, the price of OPEC crude was down to $10/bbl, one of the reasons Bush the Elder beat Dukakis like a rug in '88. I worked with Amoco as an Entry Strategist in the FSU & Bill Clinton's White House was instrumental in helping big oil build the BTC pipeline & getting Chechnya out of the loop as the major pipeline loop/hub as the Russians were demanding. Without Billy Jeff, Amoco might not have got Aliyev Sr. to give the job to the West, and keep the Caspian littoral countries from caving into the Russian threats on a number of fronts [Iran & Russia were working together to threaten Azerbaijan & Kazahstan]. I was there & met with Aliyev Jr. frequently [who is now Prez after his Poppy died] and also met with the Clinton NSC about three times a month until the agreement was signed & Armenian objections [as well as Russian] were overcome—the Armenian lobby in the US wanted some control of the pipeline, and they are puppets of the Russians, as are the South Ossetians & Abkhazians [& the South Ossetians are of derived of Iranian ethnic stock & favor Iran, as does Armenia & often Russia]. Iran & Russia both oppose Central Asian feedstock going through Azerbaijan & Georgia to Turkey & the Med, as it lessens their chokehold on western energy sources. Even Clinton understood that part of the Great Game—he just didn't understand Al Qaeda & the violent reactionary terrorists growth & let Osama go when Sudan wanted to hand him over to the US. Clinton was better on energy than Carter, and Reagan & GHWB were better than Clinton. GWB inherited a lot of the situation & dropped the ball on Iraq—and Iran & Russia are still in cahoots on keeping the US out of the Caucasus & the Middle East.

The fact is, it's hard to see where the merits here lie. Should we support the regime that is trying to force two small regions to submit to its rule? What about the history of civil war and ethnic cleansing? If they want to be part of Russia, should we argue that Georgia can force them to stay?

On the other hand…is it good that these two regions are so driven by the purist form of identity politics that they can't stomach being part of Georgia? If so, why?

I don't know the answers. But I doubt you do either. Sometimes the disputes go back so far into the past that its impossible to tell who is right or who is wrong.

Reading the people with some expertise in Russian affairs, they don't seem exactly certain either. I just don't know yet. I am not going to judge between the parties without knowing a lot more than I do and I don't think the presidential candidates should do so.

I don't suffer from BDS just RDS.

Jimmy Carter delivered this televised speech on July 15, 1979.

What I have to say to you now about energy is simple and vitally important.

Point one: I am tonight setting a clear goal for the energy policy of the United States. Beginning this moment, this nation will never use more foreign oil than we did in 1977 — never. From now on, every new addition to our demand for energy will be met from our own production and our own conservation. The generation-long growth in our dependence on foreign oil will be stopped dead in its tracks right now and then reversed as we move through the 1980s, for I am tonight setting the further goal of cutting our dependence on foreign oil by one-half by the end of the next decade — a saving of over 4-1/2 million barrels of imported oil per day.

Point two: To ensure that we meet these targets, I will use my presidential authority to set import quotas. I'm announcing tonight that for 1979 and 1980, I will forbid the entry into this country of one drop of foreign oil more than these goals allow. These quotas will ensure a reduction in imports even below the ambitious levels we set at the recent Tokyo summit.

Point three: To give us energy security, I am asking for the most massive peacetime commitment of funds and resources in our nation's history to develop America's own alternative sources of fuel — from coal, from oil shale, from plant products for gasohol, from unconventional gas, from the sun.

I propose the creation of an energy security corporation to lead this effort to replace 2-1/2 million barrels of imported oil per day by 1990. The corporation I will issue up to $5 billion in energy bonds, and I especially want them to be in small denominations so that average Americans can invest directly in America's energy security.

Just as a similar synthetic rubber corporation helped us win World War II, so will we mobilize American determination and ability to win the energy war. Moreover, I will soon submit legislation to Congress calling for the creation of this nation's first solar bank, which will help us achieve the crucial goal of 20 percent of our energy coming from solar power by the year 2000.

These efforts will cost money, a lot of money, and that is why Congress must enact the windfall profits tax without delay. It will be money well spent. Unlike the billions of dollars that we ship to foreign countries to pay for foreign oil, these funds will be paid by Americans to Americans. These funds will go to fight, not to increase, inflation and unemployment.

Point four: I'm asking Congress to mandate, to require as a matter of law, that our nation's utility companies cut their massive use of oil by 50 percent within the next decade and switch to other fuels, especially coal, our most abundant energy source.

Point five: To make absolutely certain that nothing stands in the way of achieving these goals, I will urge Congress to create an energy mobilization board which, like the War Production Board in World War II, will have the responsibility and authority to cut through the red tape, the delays, and the endless roadblocks to completing key energy projects.

We will protect our environment. But when this nation critically needs a refinery or a pipeline, we will build it.

Point six: I'm proposing a bold conservation program to involve every state, county, and city and every average American in our energy battle. This effort will permit you to build conservation into your homes and your lives at a cost you can afford.

I ask Congress to give me authority for mandatory conservation and for standby gasoline rationing. To further conserve energy, I'm proposing tonight an extra $10 billion over the next decade to strengthen our public transportation systems. And I'm asking you for your good and for your nation's security to take no unnecessary trips, to use carpools or public transportation whenever you can, to park your car one extra day per week, to obey the speed limit, and to set your thermostats to save fuel. Every act of energy conservation like this is more than just common sense — I tell you it is an act of patriotism.

Our nation must be fair to the poorest among us, so we will increase aid to needy Americans to cope with rising energy prices. We often think of conservation only in terms of sacrifice. In fact, it is the most painless and immediate way of rebuilding our nation's strength. Every gallon of oil each one of us saves is a new form of production. It gives us more freedom, more confidence, that much more control over our own lives.

The last president who actually gave energy policy some real thought.

And then Reagan got elected, and any policy that didn't consist of fucking over Joe Sixpack got thrown overboard.

Of course, the BTC was set up to get Kazakh & even Turkmani crude to eventually flow. It's always fun to see the BDS crowd like cernig & DQ spout the gibberish that fits their Marxist template.

In terms of no-holds-barred power politics and oil geopolitics, BTC is the real deal – a key component in the US's overall strategy of wrestling the Caucasus and Central Asia away from Russia – and bypassing Iranian oil and gas routes. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev, for instance, has just announced that Kazakh crude will also flow through the BTC before 2010. He even proposed to add Aktau – the Kazakh Caspian oil Mecca – to a new acronym (ABTC?). It's interesting to remember that BP always denied that it needs Kazakh oil to fill its pipeline.

Everything related to BTC spells tremendous ambition. It will take a few months to fill the pipeline – and for the supertankers at Ceyhan to be loaded with Caspian crude, thus bypassing the highly congested Bosphorus. BTC is projected to reach 1 million barrels a day – roughly 1.2% of global production. Compare it with the 500,000 barrels of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which moves crude from Baku to the Russian port of Novorossiysk.

BTC makes little sense in economic terms. Oil experts know that the most cost-effective routes from the Caspian would be south through Iran or north through Russia. But BTC is a designer masterpiece of power politics – from the point of view of Washington and its corporate allies. US Vice President Dick Cheney, already in his previous incarnation as Halliburton chief, has always been a huge cheerleader for the “strategically significant” BTC. The verdict is open on whether this massive investment will be worth it. Instead of the dreams of a new Kuwait, the Caspian may hold only 32 billion barrels of oil – not much more than the reserves of Qatar, a small Gulf producer. The Caspian in fact may hold less than 10% of the total, known Middle East reserves.

Anyway, what really matters is positioning in the New Great Game. The Caucasus, the Caspian and Central Asia are up for grabs. European customers for Azeri (and Kazakh) oil and gas might rely on BTC for some of their supply. But the Russian counterpunch will come: President Vladimir Putin will not cease to seduce the European Union with loads of Russian, Caspian oil – plus strong protection – in return for loads of European Union investment. Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets.

Another Bush/Cheney political plan that blows up in their faces.

In Georgia the obstacles were more complex than in Azerbaijan. Thus the “Rose Revolution” of late 2003, getting rid of Edward Shevardnadze to the benefit of young, photogenic, American-educated and American-aligned Mikhail Saakashvili. The small matter of defending BTC from attacks of alleged al-Qaeda-related Chechens holed up in the Georgian mountains remains. But at least protection at the end of BTC in Ceyhan in Turkey is guaranteed: it's not a coincidence that the pipeline ends right next door to the massive American airbase at Incirlik.

How is that Rose Revolution working out?