Georgia Declares War & Conflict Expands: A News Round-up (and Some Background)
The Georgian Parliament “has approved a presidential decree declaring that the country is in a state of war for 15 days.” (BBC News) The crisis started when “Georgian forces launched a surprise attack on Thursday night to regain control of South Ossetia, which has had de facto independence since the end of a civil war in 1992″ (BBC News) South Ossetia voted for independence in an unofficial 2006 referendum.(BBC News Timeline)
Separatists say that at least 1500 people died in South Ossetia, a part of Georgia which touches the Russian border. (NYT), Russia puts the death toll at 2000 (CNN). Georgia denies this as “an egregious lie.” (BBC News) The Georgian president—according to CNN—sets the death toll at 100. (CNN)
Georgia and the separatist region of South Ossetia—the current focal point of the escalating and expanding violence—have been in a state of tension for years, but the tension escalated when American ally Mikhail Saakashvili became President of Georgia. (NYT). Saakashvili “has made national unification a centerpiece of his agenda.” (NYT) In fact, he ran for office on a promise to recover Georgia’s lost territories. (BBC News Timeline)
However, the people of South Ossetia—who as noted above have had de facto independence since 1992— do not want to be part of the Georgian state. (BBC News) They either want to be separately recognized to to be unified with their ethnic relatives in the Russian state of North Ossetia.(BBC News)
Since 1992, Russia has a CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States]-prescribed peacekeeping role in the region.(BBC News), but has “supported the separatist regime financially and militarily.”(BBC News). In fact, the Russians have “stepped up ties” to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two separatist regions of Georgia. (BBC News Timeline)
Georgia….claims that Russian mercenaries are active in South Ossetia.
Russia has issued most South Ossetians with Russian passports, potentially justifying direct intervention (on the grounds of protecting “its own” citizens).
Recent heightened military tension had effectively given Russia a more solid pretext for intervention.
The positions of Georgia and South Ossetia are, says this BBC article grimly, “fundamentally irreconcilable.”(BBC News)
Georgia has had further problems with separatism. During the 1990′s, there was a vicious war between Georgia and the separatist region of Abkhazia. (BBC News)
The Georgian-Abkhaz war in the early 1990s erupted as a result of long-running inter-ethnic tensions. It was an extremely vicious conflict, in which both sides carried out ethnic cleansing, mass killings and wanton destruction of property.(BBC News)
The Russians have followed a similar course with the Abkhazi separatists. (BBC News)
The situation is complicated by Russia’s policy of offering a fast track to Russian citizenship to large numbers – more than two-thirds – of Abkhazia’s population.
This allows Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to announce that Russia will use whatever means necessary to defend “its” citizens……(BBC News)
And the Abkhazi, like the South Ossetians, do not want to live under Georgian rule. (BBC News) They’ve had their own self-declared government since the Nineties (BBC News)
Meanwhile, in South Ossetia, increasing military tensions provided the Russian peacekeepers or “peacekeepers”—depending on whom you believe— with grounds to intervene. “Military involvement may risk serious losses and international condemnation but the alternative of unilaterally recognising South Ossetian and Abkhaz independence could risk an even wider conflict,” says Russian affairs analyst Steven Eke of BBC News.
Saakashvili isn’t popular with the Kremlin or with Russia’s President (and Putin’s “hand-picked successor”) Dmitri Medvedev, either. He’s pushed for NATO membership for Georgia and “positioned himself as a spokesman for democracy movements and alignment with the West.”" (NYT) Steven Eke writes:
Certainly, Russia wants to stop Mikhael Saakashvili. It views him as an emotional and dangerous leader, destabilising an already restless region on Russia’s southern flank.
Moreover, Moscow wants an end to Georgia’s crawl towards Nato membership. Just recently, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an extended essay on Russia’s position in the world, insisted that Nato should be superseded as the pre-eminent guarantor of European security.
In this vein of anti-Western, anti-Nato suspicion, another school of thought in Russia believes that Mikhael Saakashvili is actually trying to drag Nato into intervention in his country’s disputes with Moscow. (BBC News)
Another factor in play here is Kosovo. Putin and other warned the Western supporters of Kosovo’s independence that this would serve as a template for its own actions in the pro-Russian, separatist regions of the former USSR. (BBC News) Eke explains:
Even before the Serbian province unilaterally declared independence, there was a strong body of thought in the Russian political and diplomatic worlds, that believed Russian recognition of South Ossetian and Abkhaz independence would be morally and politically justified.
This has become much stronger since many Western countries ignored furious Russian objections and recognised Kosovo’s independence.(BBC News)
On Thursday, August 7, the Georgians and separatists agreed to stop fighting and sit down for Russian-mediated talks. (BBC News) But before the cease-fire broke, Saakashvili initiated military action against rebel forces in South Ossetia’s capital city of Tskhinvali in order, the head of the Georgian forces said, “to restore constitutional order” and “neutralize” rebel forces who were attacking civilians. (BBC News) The rebel leader called it “a base and perfidious step.”(BBC News)
On Friday, Russia intervened, attacking Georgia military bases in South Ossetia. (BBC News)
[T]he Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said Georgian attacks on Russian citizens “amounted to ethnic cleansing.”
Mr. Lavrov said Russian airstrikes targeted military staging grounds. Asked whether Russia is prepared to fight “all-out war” in Georgia, he said: “No. Georgia, I believe, started a war in Southern Ossetia, and we are responsible to keep the peace.”. (NYT).
Russian President Medvedev says that the Russians are trying “to force the Georgian side to peace”. (BBC News)
In pursuit of peace the Russians have also bombed military targets in the Georgian town of Gori and —according to the Georgians—killed 60 civilians in the process. (BBC News) Georgia says that the Russians have also “mobilized its Black Sea fleet off the coast of Abkhazia….” (CNN)
And in Abhkazia, the Abkhazian separatists say that they have “launched air and artillery strikes on Georgian forces in the Kodori Gorge.” (BBC News)
Georgian TV reported that the Georgian-controlled section of the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia was under fire, blaming the bombardment on Russian forces.
The foreign minister in Abkhazia’s self-declared government, Sergei Shamba, said Abkhaz forces had launched an attack aimed at driving Georgian forces out of the gorge.
It was not clear whether planes used in the attack on the gorge belonged to Russia or to the Abkhaz separatists. (BBC News)
In addition, the Georgian foreign ministry “said the Black Sea port of Poti, the site of a major oil shipment facility, had been “devastated” by a Russian air raid.”(BBC News)
As for the effect of Georgia’s declaration—this is according to the Georgians—
[t]he Georgian “state of war” order is not a formal declaration of war, and stops short of declaring martial law, according to Georgian officials who described it to CNN.
It gives Saakashvili powers he would not ordinarily have, such as issuing curfews, restricting the movement of people, or limiting commercial activities, those officials said.
It places the government on a 24-hour alert, said Georgian National Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomaia during a conference call with reporters.
Saakashvili asked Western leaders to pressure Russia to agree to an immediate cease-fire, which he said his country would willingly observe first.
“We are dealing with absolutely criminal and crazy acts of irresponsible and reckless decision makers, which is on the ground producing dramatic and tragic consequences,” Saakashvili said Saturday afternoon. (CNN)
Russian airstrikes hit Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, on Saturday.(NYT)
Georgian forces shot down 10 Russian combat planes over the last two days, according to Alexander Lomaya, secretary of the Georgian National Security Council…. (NYT)
The Georgians and the Russians each have claimed to control the South Ossetian capital.
[T]he Russian Army’s Ground Forces commander, Gen Vladimir Boldyrev, said his troops had “fully liberated” the city and were pushing Georgian forces back.
But the secretary of the Georgian National Security Council, Khakha Lomaia, insisted that the city remained “under the complete control of our troops”. (BBC News)
George W. Bush considers that by going outside South Ossetia as part of its peacekeeping, Russia has caused a “dangerous escalation in the (BBC News) He also said that “Georgia’s territorial integrity had to be respected.”(BBC News)
“The attacks are occurring in regions of Georgia far from the zone of conflict in South Ossetia,” he said while attending the Olympics.
“The violence is endangering regional peace.”(BBC News)
“Endangering”?
The Russian foreign minister has said that Russia wants to work something out, but that attempts to “pacify the hawks” running Georgia just haven’t worked out the way everyone hoped.
Moscow has been working intensely with foreign leaders, in particular the United States. “….Apparently these efforts have not succeeded. Quite a number of officials in Washington were really shocked when all this happened.” (NYT)
Western leaders are unhappy as well as shocked.
The United States and other Western nations, joined by NATO, condemned the violence and demanded a cease-fire. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice went a step further, calling on Russia to withdraw its forces… (NYT).
At present, both sides seem to accept that a war is on.
Neither side showed any indication of backing down. Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin of Russia declared that “war has started,” and President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia accused Russia of a “well-planned invasion” and mobilized Georgia’s military reserves. There were signs as well of a cyberwarfare campaign, as Georgian government Web sites were crashing intermittently during the day. (NYT)
Though I know we’ll get a different frame through the Bush administration and in the media, this seems to be a situation where there are no “good guys” or “bad guys.” If these two separatist regions don’t want to be a part of Georgia, why should Georgia be allowed to use military force to compel them? Is there any merit in the Russian claims of “ethnic cleansing” by the Georgians? On the other hand, the Russians are certainly being opportunistic and have arguably gone beyond what’s required to keep the peace. I say “arguably” because I’m just not sure whether there is any justification militarily for their strikes against Gori and Poti. I will await further information.
Why can’t they all just get along?
Why indeed.
As Cernig says, the American right will reflexively side against the Russians.
Despite the rightwing Bush cheerleaders, who never met an anti-Russian leader they didn’t like, trying to paint the South Ossetian conflict as a David vs Goliath conflict with Russia doing all the Evil Empire stirring of war by proxy (hang on, isn’t South Ossetia the David to Georgia’s Goliath too?) and Georgia being a freedom-loving harassed democracy, the Georgians were undoubtably the first State actor to fire shots at another this time around – and Russia has a CIS mandated peacekeeping role in the disputed region. Now, the Georgian president is calling for a ceasefire and at the same time asking his parliament to institute martial law. So much for his freedom loving rhetoric of yesterday, designed to play to the Bush administration’s ears.
And Cernig points out another reason for the Bush administration to side with Georgia: oil.
The western route for early oil from Azerbaijan goes from Baku to the Georgian port of Supsa on the Black Sea, and several other proposed pipeline routes, including the proposed Baku-Ceyhan route to the Turkish Mediterranean coast, also pass through Georgia. Both pipeline routes pass near several regions of Georgia that have been the site of separatist struggles in Abkhazia (northwest Georgia) and Ossetia (north central Georgia). (Newhoggers, quoting DoE website)
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13 Responses to “Georgia Declares War & Conflict Expands: A News Round-up (and Some Background)”
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Bruno is making trouble, as he has before. Luckily for Obama and the Dems, it's happening now rather than a week before the November elections. (To many this would Nudge voters beyond their 1996 discarding of national security and “Dems are soft” theme that won so much for the GOP in 2002 and particularly in 2004.)
Except for the fact that the general consensus, even on some right wing blogs (I'm thinking of the American Conservative, in particular), is that McCain had the worse initial reaction of the two — as belligerent and hotheaded as people feared. Plus, his top foreign policy adviser lobbied for the nation of Georgia for years. Typical Keating Five decision tree.
Pipelineistan's biggest game begins
Another Bush/Cheney political plan that blows up in their faces.
How is that Rose Revolution working out?
cernig is a totally anti-American interest freak who shouldn't be quoted in polite company. I worked on the BTC pipeline which Amoco had originally negotiated with the President of Azerbaijan & his filial successor. For the weirdos like DQ to ponder, it was actually the Clinton White House who was Amoco's chief supporter on this project—one of the major reasons Amoco was acquired at a great price by BP was because of its position in Azerbaijan & the FSU.
Of course, the BTC was set up to get Kazakh & even Turkmani crude to eventually flow. It's always fun to see the BDS crowd like cernig & DQ spout the gibberish that fits their Marxist template.
[...] cwriter85 wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptOn Thursday, August 7, the Georgians and separatists agreed to stop fighting and sit down for Russian-mediated talks. (BBC News) But before the cease-fire broke, Saakashvili initiated military action against rebel forces in South … [...]
Dave,
I don't suffer from BDS just RDS.
Jimmy Carter delivered this televised speech on July 15, 1979.
The last president who actually gave energy policy some real thought.
And then Reagan got elected, and any policy that didn't consist of fucking over Joe Sixpack got thrown overboard.
Well, Daveinboca, it seems that Cernig was correct about your response. I happen to think he takes a comparatively detached view of world affairs.
The fact is, it's hard to see where the merits here lie. Should we support the regime that is trying to force two small regions to submit to its rule? What about the history of civil war and ethnic cleansing? If they want to be part of Russia, should we argue that Georgia can force them to stay?
On the other hand…is it good that these two regions are so driven by the purist form of identity politics that they can't stomach being part of Georgia? If so, why?
I don't know the answers. But I doubt you do either. Sometimes the disputes go back so far into the past that its impossible to tell who is right or who is wrong.
Reading the people with some expertise in Russian affairs, they don't seem exactly certain either. I just don't know yet. I am not going to judge between the parties without knowing a lot more than I do and I don't think the presidential candidates should do so.
“The last president who actually gave energy policy some real thought.”
What a joke! Carter was a disaster on energy as he was on foreign policy in general. Reagan managed to jawbone the Saudis out of the OPEC two-tier system in the mid-eighties & GHWB as VeeP actually told King Fahd to lower the price to $18/bbl, which the Saudis promptly did. By the time GHWB was elected, the price of OPEC crude was down to $10/bbl, one of the reasons Bush the Elder beat Dukakis like a rug in '88. I worked with Amoco as an Entry Strategist in the FSU & Bill Clinton's White House was instrumental in helping big oil build the BTC pipeline & getting Chechnya out of the loop as the major pipeline loop/hub as the Russians were demanding. Without Billy Jeff, Amoco might not have got Aliyev Sr. to give the job to the West, and keep the Caspian littoral countries from caving into the Russian threats on a number of fronts [Iran & Russia were working together to threaten Azerbaijan & Kazahstan]. I was there & met with Aliyev Jr. frequently [who is now Prez after his Poppy died] and also met with the Clinton NSC about three times a month until the agreement was signed & Armenian objections [as well as Russian] were overcome—the Armenian lobby in the US wanted some control of the pipeline, and they are puppets of the Russians, as are the South Ossetians & Abkhazians [& the South Ossetians are of derived of Iranian ethnic stock & favor Iran, as does Armenia & often Russia]. Iran & Russia both oppose Central Asian feedstock going through Azerbaijan & Georgia to Turkey & the Med, as it lessens their chokehold on western energy sources. Even Clinton understood that part of the Great Game—he just didn't understand Al Qaeda & the violent reactionary terrorists growth & let Osama go when Sudan wanted to hand him over to the US. Clinton was better on energy than Carter, and Reagan & GHWB were better than Clinton. GWB inherited a lot of the situation & dropped the ball on Iraq—and Iran & Russia are still in cahoots on keeping the US out of the Caucasus & the Middle East.
I think energy is only part of the issue in Georgia right now. The BTC pipeline is already built and nobody will undo that.
The issue is spheres of influence. Russia wants an unfettered sphere of influence along its border. Putin uses all sorts of threats and promises to maintain influence in his neighborhood. Georgia has obviously not been friendly to Putin of late.
But Georgia also has its own sphere of influence issue. South Ossetia is not ethnically Georgian and has NEVER been a part of unfettered Georgia; immediately after Georgia's independence South Ossetia rebelled against the new republic and established a de facto independent state allied with Russia. But Saakavhili wants South Ossetia back under Georgian control so it can keep a hold on all the land south of the Caucasus Mountains (the extremely large Caucasus mountains separate North and South Ossetia). Saak calls it “territorial sovereignty” but it's really a sphere of influence for Georgia given the fact that South Ossetia does not want to be part of Georgia.
Saak calculated, wrongly, that appeals to 1938 and the West will summon the cavalry for his “national unity” gambit. He was embarrassingly wrong, as even the Bush Administration offers nothing more than milquetoast requests for Russia to leave and all sides to be peaceful.
Putin calculated, rightly, that he could humiliate his Georgian rival by responding to the South Ossetia crisis with overwhelming force and send a message to Georgia that NATO is a paper ally.
There really isn't anything Bush or the West can do there. Everybody knows Bush needs Russia to pressure Iran on nukes. And everybody knows the UNSC will do nothing about this. Saak blew this and now the whole Georgian democratic experiment is in jeopardy.
Right, dream on, or better yet talk to the Nigerians.
Bloomberg
Nigerian attack closes oilfield
Oil infrastucture is amazingly fragile and spread out, if the locals want to destroy it, it will be destroyed.
Israel seeks pipeline for Iraqi oil
Pipelines can always be closed.
Dave,
You have the interest of the US and that of the Oil companies confused, The US wants cheap, dependable & reliable energy, the Oil companies want the US to secure their supply of Oil, their trade routes and keep their dictatorial puppet governments in power so that they can just sell it to the highest bidder.
Dave in Boca was always “there”, whichever “there” happens to be the current foreign policy region of interest. There must be at least a dozen clones of him. Despite this, others who were also – and proveably – “there” often dispute his accounts of events.
But he has a hate-on for me
It's a diversion. watch the middle east ( around Iran ) if you snoop hard enough you may find there is a massive build up preparing to blockade Iran and possible strike.
Is WWIII far away? Armageddon? —
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