New Poll Shows Obama Losing Young, Independent, Women Support

Yet another poll has come out that spells t-r-o-u-b-l-e for Democratic party presumptive nominee Sen. Barack Obama — a poll that shows him losing the support of some critical Democratic party-pillar groups such as young women and independent voters:

Barack Obama has lost ground among some of his strongest bases of support, including young people, women, Democrats and independents, according to a new ATV/Zogby poll.

The Illinois Democrat has also lost some support among African-Americans and Hispanics, where his lead over Republican John McCain has shrunk, and among Catholics, where he’s lost his lead.

The net result, pollster John Zogby found, is a race that’s neck and neck, with McCain supported by 42 percent; Obama by 41 percent; Libertarian Bob Barr by 2 percent; and independent Ralph Nader by 2 percent. Another 13 percent supported other candidates or were undecided.

Zogby called the results a “notable turnaround” from a July survey he did that showed Obama leading by 46-36.

“McCain made significant gains at Obama’s expense among some of what had been Obama’s strongest demographic groups,” Zogby said.

Zogby attributes the shift to McCain’s tuned-up-and-aggressive campaign against Obama, and some of Obama’s flip flops. And he provides these details:

Among voters aged 18-29, Obama lost 16 percent and McCain gained 20. Obama still leads, 49-38;

-Among women, McCain gained 10 percentage points. Obama now leads 43-38;

-Among independents, Obama lost an 11 point lead. They’re now tied;

-Among Democrats, Obama’s support dropped from 83 percent to 74 percent;

-Among Catholics, Obama lost the 11 point lead he had in July and now trails McCain by 15.

Zogby said Obama also lost ground among minorities.

This poll fits several that have come out in recent weeks showing a trending that should alarm the Obama camp and Democrats. One poll is not enough to raise eyebrows since polls differ. But a series makes up a trend. And even though the see-saw continues, the trending is NOT good right now for Obama: it shows him losing ground or slowly regaining lost ground. Which means his candidacy can easily lose ground again…with a little help from the GOP.

UPDATE: The latest see saw is this AP/Ipsos poll which puts Obama 6 points ahead of McCain:

A new poll finds Barack Obama is leading John McCain nationally by 6 percentage points thanks to big leads he is enjoying among women, minorities and younger voters.

The Associated Press-Ipsos poll shows that Obama is leading his Republican rival 47 percent to 41 percent. McCain has a 10-point lead among whites and is tied with the Democrat among men, but Obama is leading by 13 points among women and has huge leads with minorities and the young.

Compare this poll with the main poll in this post and other poll stories and you can see how contradictory polling can appear..

(Earlier parts of post resume..):

One additional bit of overlooked bad news for Obama:

Obama’s numbers have gone south by 14 points…in Massachusetts…since June.

And then there are the Hillary Clinton supporters. Despite talk during the primaries about how one of the absolutely top priorities was to get a Democrat in office who could put a non-conservative on the Supreme Court, that issue has taken a backseat for a big chunk of Clinton supporters. A Lifetime poll finds that one in five plan to vote for McCain (which means the make-up of the court is not such a priority after all…).

Meanwhile, former President Bill Clinton — who apparently has only talked to Obama once since the primaries — has been less than ringing in his endorsement of Obama. That sends a signal to some hard-core Clinton supporters about what to do — or not to do — in this election (and is likely to be a signal to Obama supporters about what to do — or not to do — in terms of voting for Hillary Clinton if Obama loses and she runs in 2012).

Part of the see-saw is the Gallup Daily tracking poll, which had the two candidates basically even but now shows Obama up by a point from the last one:

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on registered voters’ presidential preferences shows Barack Obama with a modest four percentage point advantage over John McCain, 47% to 43%

Voter preferences fluctuated in the time immediately after Obama’s much publicized overseas trip. First, Obama’s lead stretched to nine points near the conclusion of the trip, only to disappear when McCain moved into a precise tie with Obama near the end of last week. Now, the race seems to have reverted to where it has been for most of the summer, with Obama holding a narrow advantage. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

If indeed the race has settled back to “the norm” for the time being, it could represent the calm before the storm. With vice presidential running mate announcements and the party conventions forthcoming in the next several weeks, enough voter preferences could be changed by these events to cause renewed movement in the overall numbers.

What’s going on?

It’s too easy to dismiss all of this as just the result of negative campaigning. Part of it is that Obama has not succeeded in getting Clinton supporters to bury primary campaign grudges or to win them over for perceived sins on his part. Part of is also that Obama is a new political product on the stage so the conflict between his early campaign riffs about change and the typical readjustment that candidates usually make after they win in primaries and head into the general election hurts him: people are giving McCain more of a pass on this than Obama.

But the biggest factor seems to be the this: the Republican team running the McCain campaign ( a bunch of Rove proteges and Bush veterans) seem to be outperforming the team that’s running the Obama campaign. Once again Democrats don’t seem to be as good at what it takes to move votes steadily their way in a general election Presidential campaign, even during a year when it that many predicted would be landslide year.

And then, too, there is McCain himself. His appearance before motorcyclists, in terms of photographic imagery and the sound bite, was nothing short of masterful (something even Democratic strategists would likely say if a camera or reporters’ notebook wasn’t around):

Thousands of motorcyclists greeted Republican presidential candidate John McCain with an approving roar Monday as he sought blue-collar and heartland support by visiting a giant motorcycle rally.

“As you may know, not long ago a couple hundred thousand Berliners made a lot of noise for my opponent. I’ll take the roar of 50,000 Harleys any day,” McCain said, referring to Democrat Barack Obama’s recent visit to the German capital.

That’s a combination of candidate and strategists on target. Just read the account in the New York Time’s lively The Caucus blog. Here’s part of it:

And when the senator was finally introduced, they vroomed those engines, tepidly at first and then, with Mr. McCain’s encouragement, in a roar of approval.

Mr. McCain’s message was a jumble of policy declarations and sharp slaps at his Democratic rival, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois. Mr. McCain noted that Mr. Obama had drawn tens of thousands to a speech in Berlin last month.

……..“This is my first time here,” he continued, “but I recognize that sound. It’s the sound of freedom.”

He repeated his call, made earlier in the day, for Congress to return to Washington and work out a package to address the high cost of fuel. “Anyone sick of paying $4, 4 bucks,” meaning gasoline, he asked. Its noxious smell filled the air as some of the bikers near the stage revved their engines.

“Tell them to get to work,” Mr. McCain said, referring to Congress. “When I am president I’m not going to let them go on vacation” ­– presumably at least until they have dealt with the energy problem. He then criticized Mr. Obama for opposing offshore drilling and for his failure to support nuclear power (Mr. Obama has said he would support both under certain circumstances).

Mr. McCain also reiterated his commitment to seeing the Iraq war through in honor of those who have died there these last five years. “We will not have their deaths be in vain, we will win this war,” Mr. McCain said.

And then he was done. Thousands of miles by air and bus to tip his hat to bikers, veterans and those he said “provide the men and women who serve our military.”

The crowd applauded, then waited patiently as the senator, his wife, Cindy, and his daughter, Meghan, left the stage. Kid Rock was up next.

The bottom line: for the Obama campaign, which now seems to be struggling to get the right tone and regain footing so that its polling numbers start heading steadily north again, it could be a long, tough slog to November.