That's the kind of “Republicans” or “moderates” or “centrists” (me-too Dem Lites) that the left will Tolerate [tm] but will never vote for in an election when they can get the real thing, with real, full-power goodies from government instead.

Will it or won't it be a Dem tsunami (seismic sea wave, for those Dems who believe this has to do with the tides) this year? More like, what size tsunami?

I'm on the road and can barely read anything on this malfunctioning machine but I can read this and have to say, it'sonly recently that Obama has started to act as a liberal Democrat appealing openly to traditional left-Dem special interests and views — and deservedly suffering as a result from such blunders and statements that repel normal people (windfall profits tax, Demogrant energy credits, etc. — typical vote-buying of the cheap Dem votes). Will he realize he is overreaching and retreat, at least keeping his mouth shut until after November? Will he next advocate support for illegitimate liberal judicial activism? To decent, normal Americans, that means “DQ!”

If it's any consolation, you're right about the GOP. I'm moved to think of what it must be like to be on an ocean out of sight out land without anyone on board knowing the first thing about navigation. That's the GOP these days.

He wins.

******

“It’s mid summer and few voters are giving the campaign the attention that the punditocracy is. That will change after Labor Day.”

*****

And how…

You clearly don't want to know the half of it…

Which won't change a single pixel of its inevitability..

__________

[Obama] still campaigns on giving the teachers unions, unions in general, the public sector employees, and militant blacks whatever they want.

Seriously? “Militant blacks”? How are we supposed to take that any other way than as racist?

SD said: “there is not a single Republican politician who seems willing to give up pork barrel spending and personal privilege in order to implement any conservative ideas.”

This is very true, SD. The GOP on the Hill under Hastert were disgusting pigs at the trough. There is a lot of anger, it seems, among the grassroots about this. The fattest GOP pigs have, alas, all retired to their Great Country Club Trough . . . knowing there is a slaughter in the works.

McCain might win . . . who knows? But I expect GOP voters will have their vengeance on the Hill for the “Years of Pork and Privilege”.

Thank you.

I read Ross Douthat regularly because he does have fresh conservative ideas.

Link:

http://rossdouthat.theatlantic.com/

And yes, the Republicans have run out of ideas because there is not a single Republican politician who seems willing to give up pork barrel spending and personal privilege in order to implement any conservative ideas. When Ted Stevens was left as the senior Republican on the appropriations committee, the Republicans were surrendering any credibility they used to have.

Point 1: “McCain should be kicking Obama’s ass in the polls, but his numbers are pretty much stagnant and have not moved appreciably as a result of a series of highly publicized smears”

Transparent pushback, reversing the obvious question of “Why isn't Obama dominant?” given this is a Democratic year+unpopular GOP prez+massive money advantage+media crush on Obama (when McCain makes the cover of “People” I will be willing to listen to silly arguments about the MSM love for McCain). Valueless except as political red-meat.

Point 2: “I had another thought while chilling over the weekend: When is the last time you heard or read fresh thinking from a conservative who worships at the Republican altar? The answer, of course, is that it’s been a very long time…”

This is a VERY important point, I would argue. Shaun is the first pundit I have read who has noticed this!

I am reminded of a memoir I read by a GOP appointee in 1992 . . . talking about the torpor of that election year, and the fact the GOP – after years of success – had run out of ideas.
The Bush campaign that year was running on intellectual fumes. They deserved to be removed from office.

McCain's campaign seems much the same, to be honest. I am willing to be persuaded otherwise . . . but I have not seen policy innovation or new ideas a la Reagan or Gingrinch.
Obama — though one may disagree with him — offers innovation.

I feel this is a serious problem with the McCain campaign. But maybe it is just me.

Anyhow, I think Shaun has hit on a important point here. McCain needs new conservative ideas and thinking desperately.

I don't think any wars are popular, but the war in Afghanistan is especially problematic.

The post 9/11 U.S.-led invasion was supposed to take out the Al Qaeda leadership and topple its patron, the Taliban. The invasion was under resourced, poorly planned from a tactical standpoint and was in one of the least governable and most disorderly nations on earth. There was some minor success against AQ, but the Bush administration like the Clinton administration before it, kept pulling its punches instead of going in for the big kill. The Taliban were briefly suppressed but along with the AQ leadership found safe haven in the tribal regions of Pakistan with the approval of the duplicitous Musharraf, who deftly balanced his thirst for billions in U.S. aid with domestic considerations.

Nearly seven years on, AQ is re-emergent and the rag-tag Taliban are still giving the under resourced U.S. and NATO contingents fits. There simply can't be major troop increases before those troops would have to come out of Iraq.

And on top of that, Afghanistan is playing footsie with India, Pakistan's arch enemy.

All of that adds up to one big unpopular war.

I agree that the important thing is to get into a substantive tete-a-tete. McCain just doesn't understand domestic issues very much.

But the key for Obama is to make this election more about the failures of the GOP than about Obama himself. What McCain has done successfully lately – with Obama's assistance – is to make this a referendum on Obama. That won't necessarily doom Obama, but it's a risky strategy. Obama needs to start defining McCain by:

1) Driving home the point that McCain is just not substantively different from Bush and the rest of the GOP.

2) Remind voters of all the flip-flops and gaffes made by McCain; raise doubts about his mental fitness and his supposed maverick tendencies.

3) Make this point clear: Staying the course with the GOP is far riskier than change.

As far as the polls, how exactly are they being conducted, especially considering the number of people that no longer have landlines?