Election 2008: New Mexico

Aside from being one of the key swing states in recent years, New Mexico is also the birthplace of yours-truly so I just thought I’d give it a little extra plug.

President: New Mexico was one of two states (the other being Iowa) to swing to the Republicans between 2000 and 2004. Odds favor it returning to the Democrats this year although Senator McCain will be helped by being the guy next door.

Leans Democrat (pickup)

Senate: Incumbent Pete Domenici (R) is retiring after 6 terms in office and the Democrats are  favored to pick this seat up. Congressmen Tom Udall (D) and Steve Pearce (R) will face off in November. Both are nominally statewide incumbents since there are only 3 House seats in New Mexico.

Recent polls have shown Udall with a solid lead but most observers expect the race to tighten.

Leans Democrat (pickup)

House: All 3 House seats are open as all of the incumbents ran for the Senate. In the 3rd District, Democrats are strongly favored to hold on.

In the 1st District, there will be a tight race between Sheriff Darren White (R) and City Attorney Martin Heinrich (D). Polls had initially favored Heinrich but recent numbers give White a slight lead. In the end it will come down to turnout and the demographics favor the Democrats.

Leans Democrat (gain)

In the 2nd District, we have a contest between businessman Edward Tinsley (R) and County Commissioner Harry Teague (D). This race will also be close but here the numbers lean to the GOP.

Leans Republican