The 284 was 303 a few short weeks ago

And actually when I look at that the toss ups are traditionally republican states and if simply OHIO goes for McCAin then that makes 3 in a row slam dunks the Democrats will have lost.

Shaun I would think even you being a life long journalist here would realize that the greater story in this is how Obama has not even remotely sealed the deal but managed to take a GOP that is in the middle of a melt down and turning it into a tight race.

That to me is the story.

Trying stirring that tracking poll with this spoon:

http://www.pollster.com/

Today, the Gallup daily tracking poll — the rolling average of voter interviews conducted, in this case, on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (correction: Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday) — shows the race at almost a dead heat. Obama had a statistically insignificant one-percentage-point lead over McCain, 45% to 44%.

I guess his desperation is paying off.

THE LEFT COAST REPORT
A Political Look at Hollywood

John McCain's Staff in Damage Control Over 'Wedding Crashers'

He's a movie star now.

Yes, Arizona senator and aspiring presidential candidate John McCain recently made his cinematic debut in this summer's bawdy romantic comedy “Wedding Crashers.”

Story Continues Below

The cameo appearance may create a big-screen problem for McCain, though, and it doesn't have anything to do with his Clinton-defending cameo co-star James Carville. It has to do with the flick's thoroughly warranted R rating.

In the movie, Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn portray divorce mediators who crash weddings and seduce bridal attendants.

I totally agree with you. The McCains could buy the Obamas' Chicago “mansion” a dozen times over.

“If McCain succeeds in defining Obama as an elitist, in comparison to himself, then he will have succeeded in perpetrating a lie.”

Yes, but he will also then be in the White House. (I think — re. the rumors of 2 sets of ads damning Obama either way on the wounded troop story — the McCain team might be quite willing to accept a dirty win.)

But it's not reality. The reality is that Obama has lived a life closer to the average American than McCain.

If McCain succeeds in defining Obama as an elitist, in comparison to himself, then he will have succeeded in perpetrating a lie.

God help me for referencing her, but MoDo in the NYT had an excellent article analyzing this paradox back in the primaries.

Her take was that money itself doesn't create the disconnect. Americans don't mind success. Bush, from an artistocratic background, seemed to be just folks.

Obama has long struggled with this issue…and HRC had some success with it in the primaries. The media perfect storm over his trip to Europe (all 3 anchors in his wake). . . covers of Newsweek, People et al . . . make Obama a celebrity unlike any previous candidate save perhaps Kennedy.

If McCain can define Obama as elitist . . . and disconnected . . . he will win Middle America. Someone learned something from the HRC campaign against Obama.

Whether it will work or not . . .who knows?

McCain can start shouting at clouds like Grampa Simpson, and blow it all yet.

Hello? Blame it on the imported Krin beer, Shaun. If you drank decent pisswater like honest hard working true-blue Americans you would not even be buzzed . . . and be better able to dodge and weave. Maybe you should start drinking BUD or better yet, Old Milwaukee? (shudder, shudder

Elrod said: “Marlowe, this ad is not actually playing well in Peoria. You forget that McCain really does have a brand with the electorate: honor. This ad demeans his honor by making him look like a buffoon.”

Elrod, I think McCain realized they were facing a “Media Gap” with Obama.

Simply put: Obama commanded more images, regardless of critical voiceover. In the latest Vanity Fair Dee Dee Myers comments on this, agreeing, but smirks: “Life isn't fair”.

This was semiotic ju-jitsu. It took Obama's media strength, and turned it against him.

His adulating crowds and media flashbulbs in Europe became equated with Britney's paparazzi dementia.

Re: your reference to “honor”. Unlike the gross smear regarding the wounded troops – which clearly soiled McCain in blowback (they seem to be prepared to accept that for the sake of advantage) — this ad is not a smear. Obama is now a celebrity. He is on the cover of “People” for gods sake (don't hold your breath for McCain or Bush to ever be there).

I thought this ad did clear damage to Obama.

It is pointless to believe that if McCain was running positive campaign ads (that have been shown not to work) that liberal/progressive pundits or bloggers would not find something else to nitpick the campaign of someone who has zero chance of winning the presidency.

And yet, since McCain isn't running a positive campaign, you're just speculating.

This ad was brilliant in that highlight Obama's key weakness . . . his floating above the clouds . . . and his disconnect from the average American joe and jane.

Let's cover some important facts here. McCain was born into an aristocratic military family. He married into a family with wealth measured in the 100s of millions. And he campaigns on a pledge to give massive tax cuts to rich people like himself.

Obama isn't disconnected. You are. From reality.

My most recent take on MoveOn . . .

http://kikoshouse.blogspot.com/2008/07/memo-to-...

If a politician with a reputation for hard-nosed tactics ran this then it would be one thing. But McCain is not a man with that reputation. McCain needs Independents in order to win. McCain needs those supporters from 2000 to rally to him. This is the sort of ad that turns them off.

No, I don't think the ad is racist. Yes, some people are going overboard on what's wrong with the ad.

The only thing the ad says to me as that John McCain has no reason to be President of the United States. He, himself, is a mindless celebrity who has to get corrected all the time by his handlers.

If you want to avoid the trolls try posting something that I did not read of The carpetbagger report or Obsidian Wing 12 hours before you wrote your piece. I assume that all of the progressive bloggers are all on the same moveon.org mailing list and thus post on the same topics on the same dates.