Bernie Sanders’ stunning win in Michigan – one pundit called it “one of the greatest upsets in modern political history” — might not reshape the Democratic primary race, but it may tell us a lot about the coming fall campaign in this key state.
First of all, Michigan, a big, important Midwestern state, is definitely in play for Donald Trump and the Republicans in the general election. And Sanders’ surprise victory by a 1.4-point margin may have been a product of poor polling, as a close look at the numbers shows that in many parts of the state Hillary Clinton, the prohibitive favorite, never had a chance on Tuesday.
Clinton failed even as she won the Detroit tri-county area and the Democrat-rich territories up the I-75 corridor, such as Genesee and Saginaw counties. That’s not supposed to happen in a Dem primary. But what occurred is that Clinton fell far short in central, western and northern Michigan – in rural areas, small towns and medium-sized cities.
The national media focuses on demographics — white vs. black, young vs. old, women vs. men — but none of those markers were particularly skewed on Election Night. Michigan, like most of the upper Midwest, is an interesting stew. Geography, rather than demography, can sometimes present a more telling tale of the politics.
Clinton support shallow in much of state
For example, of Michigan’s 83 counties, the former secretary of state carried just 10. In mid-Michigan’s Midland County, Sanders beat her by 19 points. In neighboring Isabella County (home of Mount Pleasant), the Vermont senator crushed her by a 66-33 percent margin.
In west Michigan, Clinton was defeated by similar landslide proportions in Kent County (Grand Rapids) and Kalamazoo County.
In the northern Michigan areas near Traverse City, the former first lady never rose above 37 percent in Charlevoix, Grand Traverse, Leelenau and Antrim counties. Overall, in the five outstate counties that she carried, Clinton’s margin was minimal — at or near 50 percent.
What does all this mean for next Tuesday’s contests in the large Midwestern states of Ohio and Illinois? Clearly, Clinton’s weaknesses are showing, and obviously pundits and pollsters should spend the next several days looking long and hard at places beyond Chicago and Cleveland and Cincinnati.
In fact, Clinton still enjoys a gaping delegate lead and it’s unlikely Sanders can close that gap. But the Republican strategists who expect to face Clinton in the fall have to be nearly giddy after analyzing the Michigan outcome.
Trump passes another test
This is a state that has gone for the Democratic presidential nominee in six consecutive elections. Yet, the governor is a Republican, the secretary of state and attorney general are Republicans, and the GOP has a stranglehold on the state Legislature.
Frustrated Michigan Republicans desperate for a win know that Hillary’s flop on Tuesday was accompanied by a strong Trump showing in the GOP primary. If Trump firmly establishes support in the industrial Midwest over the next few weeks to go along with his broad backing in the South and Northeast, it will become impossible for the party establishment to block his nomination, regardless of what happens at the Cleveland convention.
In that sense, the Michigan primary results may have more of an impact on the Republican race than the Sanders stunner over Clinton on the Democratic side.
Trump won by a wide margin in the all-important county of Macomb, birthplace of the Reagan Democrats. What’s more, he topped 40 percent in every corner of the state while prevailing in 72 counties.
If a candidate consistently scores above 40 percent in a contested four-way race, then there’s something happening out there.
Time for Rubio, Kasich to call it quits
Just as Michigan is viewed as the state that probably secured the nomination for Mitt Romney in 2012, it may come to be seen as the state that ended the presidential hopes of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Kasich needed a strong showing here, a close second-place finish behind Trump. He blanketed the state for a week while Sen. Ted Cruz never stepped foot into Michigan until a hastily arranged late-night campaign stop in Grand Rapids on the eve of the election.
The result was that Cruz topped Trump throughout the Grand Rapids area, winning seven west Michigan counties, and besting Kasich statewide by more than 8,000 votes. For all his efforts in this neighboring state, Kasich won just two counties and finished third, 12 points behind frontrunner Trump.
Anecdotally, Kasich had an added advantage with “stop Trump” Democrats crossing over to vote for the Ohio governor on the GOP side. Yet, even that development did not prevent an extremely disappointing finish.
As for Rubio, he had a terrible night, capturing just 9.3 percent of the vote and securing no delegates.
If Kasich and Rubio win their respective home states next Tuesday — a very iffy proposition — that will not disguise the fact that this is now a two-person race between Trump and Cruz. Kasich and Rubio clearly do not have broad appeal and, as Tuesday’s Mississippi outcome showed, they are not viable in the South.
Kasich and Rubio both wallowed in single digits in the Magnolia State primary. How bad were things for Rubio? Some of the early returns showed Rubio in fifth place, trailing Ben Carson who had ended his White House bid several days ago.
Chad Selweski is a freelance writer and blogger with a centrist point of view from suburban Detroit, Macomb County (population 870,000), home of the “Reagan Democrats.” Selweski worked as the political reporter for The Macomb Daily for 30 years. This is cross posted from his blog Politically Speaking.