Why John McCain Should Lose

In a post this morning, blogger Alan Stewart Carl, discusses his backing off of supporting John McCain. He writes:

…outside of certain issues of morality, I am not a man of absolutes. Which is why I’ve drifted away from McCain – he has acted too much like a man of absolutes, not just convinced of his own understandings of the world but also too willing to simplify complex matters in order to win votes. Obama has appeared more flexible but I don’t yet know if that is crafty political calculation or evidence of a serious man who’ll be able to handle serious times.

It was impeccable timing because I was thinking today about writing a post where I think it would be better for the GOP if McCain lost than if he won this year.

I respect the Senator from Arizona. I have respected his willingness at times to take a risk, working with Democrats and supporting measures that most of the GOP don’t seem interested in. But his campaign has lacked focus and is hamstrung by the legacy of George W. Bush. McCain and the larger GOP seem to have no real economic policy. His energy plan, which is probably one of the greenest put forward by a Republican in a long time, has been tarnished by his consistent emphasis on offshore drilling. He has been caught flatfooted on the shifting debate in Iraq, not capitalizing on the fact that the surge he supported seems to have worked, which has allowed for a timetable to become a reality. He has bought into the belief among Republicans that tax cuts are the answer to anything, even though taxes are no longer what they were when Ronald Reagan came into office (when tax cuts made more sense).

McCain is sadly trapped in the wake of the current ideology (or lack thereof) in the GOP. Many have longed for the McCain of 2000. I can understand that, but we forget that that McCain lost that year, and had very little support from Republicans. Most of his support came from Independents. So, the McCain of 2008 had to get the support of more Republicans to get the nomination, which meant having to change some of his views to make himself more presentable. Of course, in doing that, he is starting to lose some of the independents and moderates.

The problem with McCain isn’t really McCain, but the environment within the GOP and the wider conservative movement. What was once a vital intellectual movement has become tired and ossified. The GOP is no longer keeping up with the times. If you look at the last 8 years of Bush, you see an administration that had no ideas and will be known for shameful patronage more than any domestic policy.

Let’s say McCain gets elected president. The problem is, he has no ideas for dealing with the economy other than tax cuts. He has anemic support from conservatives and it seems that even his independent base has become lukewarm. A bolstered Democratic majority will not allow any more tax cuts to go through and, if McCain decides to work with Democrats, his weakened position will become even more so among conservatives. As Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam said recently, McCain as president could be just another transitional president a la Gerald Ford.

That and it might give the illusion that all is well within the GOP when it isn’t.

I think that there might be some wisdom in not winning and heading out to the wilderness to “dry out” and figure out where the GOP needs to go. I think people like the aforementioned Douthat and Salam have a good idea of where the Republicans need to go. But it will take time for plans such as these to develop, for network committed to change to form and for these plans to take hold.

Of course, all this could change if McCain were a little more bolder in his campaign and took some of the agenda items that Douthat, Salam and British Conservative party leader David Cameron mention to heart. Maybe if he were less willing to try to shore up his conservative base, which isn’t going anywhere, and trotted out a plan for an American conservatism for the 21 century, then maybe his presidency would be less of a transitional presidency and more of a strong one.

Maybe. But then, I tend to be a pessimist at heart.