Comments on: The July Poll Bounce for Obama

By: blue crabs

blue crabs — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 16:58:01 +0000

[...] [...]

By: DLS

DLS — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 19:46:57 +0000

2000 was off somewhat but this was a plurality prediction and Gore did score a higher plurality than Bush, just a smaller electoral vote total.

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/graphs/pres00_WTA.gif

By: DLS

DLS — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 19:42:12 +0000

The Iowa Electronic Markets Winner-Take-All market seems to me to be the best depiction of the way things have been going all year. The Democratic Nomination market accurately showed the broad Dem voter switch after Super Tuesday from Clinton to Obama. (Prior to Super Tuesday, the smart money was all on Clinton; there was a strong likelihood perceived that Clinton might do so well on Super Tuesday so as to effectively clinch the nomination and for Obama to withdraw at that time. But the world was quite surprised by what happened then and since.)

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_DConv0...

By: DLS

DLS — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 19:37:10 +0000

Cell phones and polls

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/901/cell-phones-pol...

By: timr

timr — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 15:18:04 +0000

How do phone polls work? Do they use the numbers in the phone books? How do they pick the “likely voter”?How do they poll those under 30, most of whom have no land line, but use cell phones only. Do they call these cell phones?

By: My new WordPress MU Site » Blog Archive » The July Poll Bounce for Obama

Tue, 29 Jul 2008 05:52:31 +0000

[...] The Huffington Post News Editors wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptFirst, the Gallup poll of a nine point spread is pretty consistent with the Research 2000 poll spread of twelve points. The only significant difference is that the Research 2000 poll places Obama at fifty-one percent and Gallup has … [...]

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 05:36:22 +0000

Yes, and look at the 2004 presidential race in the Iowa Electronic Markets…. different than the polls….. and we know who won that….

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm

I feel better about Obama's chances already!

By: vwcat

vwcat — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 04:28:00 +0000

In 1988 at this time Dukakis was 20 points ahead and look where he got.
You are right to stress that in July, polls mean nothing and i wish the media would stop obsessing on them constantly.

By: test » Blog Archive » The July Poll Bounce for Obama

test » Blog Archive » The July Poll Bounce for Obama — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 01:53:41 +0000

[...] July Poll Bounce for Obama Eric Schmeltzer wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptFirst, the Gallup poll of a nine [...]

By: DLS

DLS — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 23:51:39 +0000

Iowa Electronic Markets

(Michelle Obama has probably learned her lesson.)

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08...