The July Poll Bounce for Obama

In two polls released today, Barack Obama has widened his lead over John McCain to the widest margin of the general election. I have as much faith in polls as I do that Santa Claus is real and that there is an Easter Bunny; however the polls do shine a light on two issues that should worry the Republicans going into the fall election.

First, the Gallup poll of a nine point spread is pretty consistent with the Research 2000 poll spread of twelve points. The only significant difference is that the Research 2000 poll places Obama at fifty-one percent and Gallup has Obama at forty-nine percent of registered voters. Breaking fifty percent is a big deal and this is the first poll that has either candidate breaking that threshold.

Second, the problematic issue for McCain regarding these polls is the state contests. Since July 19th, McCain has a five percent or more lead in only seven states (Ohio, Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina, Kansas, Arkansas and Alaska); only Ohio is considered a swing state, the rest are solidly Republican.

The good news for McCain is that these national poll numbers are probably due to the European trip last week, so they should not sweat the numbers too much. Last week, the Obama campaign addressed a serious weakness in their candidate’s image: foreign relations and the court of international opinion. Over the next four weeks, the McCain camp should not pay attention to any polls. They need to revamp their press operations because Obama is out-working them and scoring points on issues that McCain should be the heavy favorite.

Poll numbers are fun to look at in July. However, they will not mean anything until two weeks after the Republican Convention ends. Let’s see where we stand on September 22nd…until then I’m going back to eating Maryland Blue Crabs and drinking a cold beverage.