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Polling Whiplash

The big news over the weekend was the “Europe bounce” for Obama. The (potentially) big news this afternoon is a lone poll that finds McCain up by 4, with some erosion for Obama in the daily tracking polls by Gallup and Rasmussen.

Ouch. My neck hurts.

  • Neocon
    McCain baited Obama into going to Europe.

    People in America other then the left in the Democratic party really are suspicious of Europeans and their socialized nations. Anyone that panders to the Europeans is seen in the heartland as someone to be suspicious of here in America as well.

    This is why I asked a few days back........Obama did all that with such tremendous worldwide coverage and got a 3 point bounce in the polls. Now it seems that is even slipping back some.

    Once again his handlers failed Obama. He should never have gone to Europe. Middle east yes. Europe NO. You don't go there till your president. You don't spend your entire campaign saying how dangerous it is in Iraq and then let your handlers have a photo op of you shooting hoops in a gymnasium in the middle east.

    As David Gergen pointed out...............“I cannot remember a campaign in which a rival seeking the presidency has been in a position negotiating a war that’s under way with another party outside the country.” That’s dangerous, on so many levels.

    Barak Obama might have a lot of handlers but they are not too smart. He should be up by 30 points.
  • elrod
    Neocon,
    That's BS. McCain went to Europe in the spring too. It's less controversial to go to Europe than to go to Afghanistan.

    The Gallup poll shows Obama up 3 among registered voters. Frank Newport, the director of the Gallup poll, says that we should only look at registered voters this far out and not their dubious "likely voter" model.

    Note that their likely voter model is based purely on past voting performance, including in local elections. Thus, it skews to a much older and whiter electorate. It doesn't even ask about enthusiasm.

    Basically, Gallup took a poll of registered voters, found Obama had a small lead, took out a bunch of young and minority voters and voila! McCain leads by 4.

    The media can run with it all they want. But it's BS.
  • DLS
    Even after filtering the cult-raves out of accounts of Obama's trip, it was a success.

    * * *

    "People in America other then the left in the Democratic party really are suspicious of Europeans and their socialized nations. Anyone that panders to the Europeans is seen in the heartland as someone to be suspicious of here in America as well."

    Actually, pandering to the Europeans in a leftish way is treated with suspicion all over the nation. But you have to look at the bigger context -- this was about vieing with McCain to personally represent not only the nation but how it might change from the hyped-and-otherwise-excessively-politically-maligned Bush or any other Republican who would likely be more willing to use force when and where needed than to chatter within a gabby clique or avoid taking action, a la classic Europeans (who rely on the US to do their heavy lifting for them, though since Bosnia that is changing).
  • DLS
    "...............'I cannot remember a campaign in which a rival seeking the presidency has been in a position negotiating a war that’s under way with another party outside the country.' That’s dangerous, on so many levels."

    Certainly it's risky, especially with the Dems' post-Sixties traditionally "softie" reputation, and going to a specific schedule not only is a petty insult at Bush but is providing prized information to the terrorists, Iran, and Syria, which threatens harm to us and our interests. But as I wrote, this is a potential future president, rather than a disgusting partisan-political deliberate interference as we saw with the Pelosi gang's visit to the Middle East.

    Now if he were to go back there accompanied by Pelosi, Reed, etc., it would be once more disgusting. Between November and January, okay, but not before.
  • DLS
    (Reid)
  • Neocon
    There is a big difference between McCain who went to Europe and was treated with Suspicion...................thats too funny.

    Elrod you dont even get it do you. McCain was handed a luke warm.....oh nice to see you now go away welcome.............the heartland breathed a sigh of relief.

    Obama was hailed the conquering hero, people fell at his feet and worshiped.......the heartland wept.

    Get it now?
  • Exactly Neocon.

    Idiots in this country think it's better if the entire world hates our president. Apparently we don't need or want allies.
  • Neocon
    So those of us who are suspicious of other countries are idiots.

    The entire world hates America. Why not hate our president too? I mean even most of the people on the left are angry with America and hate our President. Why shouldnt Europeans???

    See I have a solution for that. Isolationism. Bring our troops home. Stop shipping jobs over seas and let America deal with America. Stop giving aid to other countries and let them solve their own problems.

    After about 5 years of this they would love us again.
  • When that suspicion manifests itself in a desire to see our country and leaders loathed by others, then yes, you're an idiot. Or at the very least, highly illogical.
  • Marlowecan
    Elrod said: "Basically, Gallup took a poll of registered voters, found Obama had a small lead, took out a bunch of young and minority voters and voila! McCain leads by 4."

    These numbers are fascinating however you cut them...given they come in the midst of the greatest MSM love-in for a candidate in memory.

    I find it fascinating that no one in the media is willing to explain these numbers in detail. Basically Obama should have closed the deal...given the hosanas in the MSM.

    What degree is racism a factor? What degree class resentment of limousine liberals diktat and condescenion? What degree a distrust of Democrats on defence?
  • DLS
    "The entire world hates America. Why not hate our president too? I mean even most of the people on the left are angry with America and hate our President. Why shouldnt Europeans???"

    Largely, they envy and resent the USA in more advanced nations and yes, the terrorists truly hate us. The Smelly Socialist crowd that has staged typical play-pen nonsense-coupled-with-occasional-violence demonstrations whenever Bush has visited Europe naturally would join the Obama cult that includes trendy leftism and PC as its sources. McCain, who would be perceived as more willing to use the force which none of the Europeans can match (there's that envy and even an inferiority complex at work, again), would never be able to get as glowing a response as Obama would have received. Despite his differences with Bush and defiance at times of the GOP, McCain has an "R" next to his name. It's just not fashionable to respect someone with an "R" who's part of the Old America [tm]. Obama has the requisite "D" next to his name, and is part of the New America [tm] who promises to be more PC-and-leftish fashionable and make the Europeans as well as liberals in the USA Feel Good. To the extent many in Europe share similar but less extreme views than the typical nitwit kids that participate in those demonstrations, it's fashionable among much of "Euro-Trash" society to dislike McCain and a strong foreign policy as unfashionable and to adore the Messiah.

    It's no contest.
  • DLS
    "Idiots in this country think it's better if the entire world hates our president. Apparently we don't need or want allies."

    Non sequitur. This does not follow from what Neocon said or from the observation of Obama's trip and its positive reception abroad.

    "What degree is racism a factor? What degree class resentment of limousine liberals diktat and condescenion? What degree a distrust of Democrats on defence?"

    Whatever surprising numbers McCain holds currently are likely due most to #2 (and the related cult among white "progressives" for Obama), whereas #3 explains the election results in large part of 2002 and 2004 but the public is past that in 2006, particularly when Obama seems to be realistic at times rather than hopelessly (pun intended) unrealistic and naive and idealistic and PC fashionable insofar as the anti-GOP 2008 elections are concerned.
  • vwcat
    The obsession over polls is amazing. there is so much more to this election then to just look at polls. And it's boring and counterproductive at this point. maybe the media is just bored.
    But, it's summer, people are busy and not paying attention and not wanting to talk to pollsters. Let's discuss polls when it actually means something: in September.
  • vwcat
    DSL, get a grip. your hate is spilling out of you to the point of ridiculous.
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