Comments on: Obama Overseas Trip Poll Bounce? Widens Lead Over McCain To 7 Points

By: Neocon

Neocon — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 01:50:50 +0000

Actually I think that it gives Obama about another 4 or 5 percent boost to his numbers.

I also think that the Clinton voters are saying when called they will vote for McCain or wont vote at all. Either way I think thats another 5 percent for McCain that wont show up for him in November. So all in all give Obama 10 more points and take 5 points away from McCain and I think the numbers then are pretty close to what we will see in November.

Obama 58
McCain 39
Barr .......3

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 17:25:18 +0000

Neocon- I agree that the young with cell phones don't always turn out to vote. And I guess if they're not included in the polls leading up to the election then the polls are closer to reality….

By: Neocon

Neocon — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 13:32:56 +0000

But even thru all that. The young carrying cell phones don't always turn out and vote. I know a lot of young people who are like………….whos running for president.?

People who are obsessed with politics seem to think the rest of the world IS TOO.

But thru all that Obama only got a 2 or 3 point boost in his poll numbers?

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 06:00:13 +0000

showmeles, thanks for the info. I don't know if pollsters rely on published numbers or if they get numbers from other means. I don't receive phone calls from pollsters on either my published landline or my cell phone. But I suppose pollsters might only call listed numbers, which would be landlines. Thanks again, I appreciate you taking the time on this.

By: showmeles

showmeles — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 05:42:28 +0000

StockboySF…My opinion is unscientific and anecdotal but I have a dozen or so friends (40's to 60's) who have cancelled their home land lines and rely solely on cell phones. I imagine this applies to younger folks as well, likely even more so. Therefore, pollsters cannot reach them, as there is no cell phone book as far as I know. A pollster I know told me this is true and that the 'margin of error' is steadily increasing.

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 05:25:06 +0000

I notice that the lowest Gallup rating Obama has had thus far is 45%, which is higher than the highest Gallup rating McCain has had thus far, 44%.

I agree with elrod- Obama still has to convince a lot of folks. And there are some McCain supporters out there who want to vote for Obama but just can't bring themselves to do so at this time….

By: StockBoySF

StockBoySF — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 05:21:06 +0000

showmeles…. while I don't doubt your statement about pollsters missing huge numbers of voters who are only using cellphones, I'd actually like to know how this works… I've read it before and I was actually talking about it earlier today with a friend, but I don't know how pollsters get telephone numbers to call and how they know that the number they are dialing is a landline or cell phone. Thanks!

By: elrod

elrod — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 05:18:52 +0000

I think there really are 11% undecided. That's not a large number.

This is like 1980. A lot of voters know they don't like McCain. Note that his ceiling is around 44 percent in most polls. But Obama still has to convince people. This trip helped with that. The next few months will do more.

By: showmeles

showmeles — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 04:30:21 +0000

I truly don't believe that 11% of the voters are still undecided…that is more likely the percentage of those polled who don't even know who is running…and pollsters are missing the huge numbers of voters who have abandoned their land lines and have only cell phones. Polls become more unreliable all the time.

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Sun, 27 Jul 2008 01:25:57 +0000

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Sun, 27 Jul 2008 00:47:27 +0000

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Sun, 27 Jul 2008 00:41:54 +0000

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