Obama Overseas Trip Poll Bounce? Widens Lead Over McCain To 7 Points

The latest Gallup Daily Tracking poll indicates Democratic party presumptive Presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama may be enjoying a “bump” from his highly-touted — and heavily covered — overseas trip. He now has his highest numbers since Senator Hillary Clinton quit the Democratic presidential race:

Barack Obama has stretched his lead over John McCain among national registered voters to seven percentage points, 48% to 41%, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 23-25.

Gallup now suggests there is a cause and effect between Obama’s trip, media coverage and the poll jump:

This represents a continuation of Obama’s frontrunner position in Gallup’s Friday report, when he led McCain by six points, 47% to 41%. Earlier this week, Obama and McCain were separated by just two to four points, but that was before the extensive U.S. news coverage of the last leg of Obama’s foreign tour…

Obama’s particularly large leads over McCain in Friday and Saturday’s tracking suggest that the massive publicity surrounding Obama’s speech at the Victory Tower in Berlin on Friday — the only major public event of the trip — and coverage of Obama’s meetings with the heads of state in France and Germany may have tilted U.S. voter preferences more in his favor.

Notably, Obama’s current seven-point lead over McCain ties his widest since the start of Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the general election in early March, and was achieved only once previously. He led McCain by seven points immediately after Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign for the Democratic nomination in early June. However, that proved to be a short-lived bounce, with Obama holding a six- to seven-point lead for only three days before it dropped back to two to three points.

But one poll does not a trend make. And The New Republic’s The Plank notes that Obama is starting to show some weak state polling as his national numbers go up:

Obama is just about at his high water marks in the national tracking polls, however. Gallup shows him ahead by 7 points, tying his best-ever margin in that poll, while Rasmussen has him ahead by 6. What Obama’s foreign policy trip may have done, and particularly his speech in Berlin, is to refresh enthusiasm among his core supporters. Fully 60 percent of Democrats now have a very favorable opinion of Obama, according to Rasmussen’s latest numbers. That number is improved from 53 percent a week ago. During that time frame, Obama has gained 6 points of support among Democrats, capturing 82 percent of their votes rather than 76. Half of that gain comes from undecided voters, while the other half comes from McCain.

Also look at Open Left which looks at recent polls and how they’re being reported.

Also look at this average of polls and a chart.