Obama Not Closing Sale With Some Key Voters Or Clinton Supporters

The emerging pollster conventional wisdom is that Democratic party presumptive nominee Senator Barack Obama is now stuck in a political ditch: he isn’t closing the deal with many voters and some Clinton supporters are still dragging their heels and — an increasing number of news stories suggest — some Clintonistas seem to be looking for reasons to drag their heels.

In other words: in a year when it seemed like the Democrats were almost certain to win the White House the emphasis is increasingly on the “almost.”

The bottom line: Obama might consider slowing down his transition team’s ongoing deliberations for a while and divert some resources to plugging up a leaky boat that could sink and leave the race winnable to the floating boat of his opponent Republican Senator John McCain. McCain’s older boat might be zigging and zagging and seem creaky in the political winds but some polls show it picking up speed in some key, vital states.

The Los Angeles Times brings it all together in this report which reads, in part:

Even as his turn on the global stage hit an emotional peak Thursday with a speech before a cheering crowd of more than 200,000 in Germany, Barack Obama faced new evidence of stubborn election challenges back home.

Fresh polls show that he has been unable to convert weeks of extensive media coverage into a widened lead. And some prominent Democrats whose support could boost his campaign are still not enthusiastic about his candidacy.

Several new surveys show that Obama is in a tight race or even losing ground to Republican John McCain, both nationally and in two important swing states, Colorado and Minnesota. One new poll offered a possible explanation for his troubles: A minority of voters see Obama as a familiar figure with whom they can identify.

It’s an opening — and the Republicans would be guilty of political malpractice if they didn’t try to use it. And they are:

Republicans are moving to exploit this vulnerability, trying to encourage unease among voters by building the impression that Obama’s overseas trip and other actions show he has a sense of entitlement that suggests he believes the White House is already his.

In Ohio on Thursday, McCain hit that theme: “I’d love to give a speech in Germany . . . but I’d much prefer to do it as president of the United States, rather than as a candidate for the office of presidency.”

Obama also faces discontent from some of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s most ardent supporters, who are put off by what they describe as a campaign marked by hubris and a style dedicated to televised extravaganzas.

Susie Tompkins Buell, a major Clinton fundraiser, said: “The Clinton supporters that I know are bothered by these rock-star events. These spectacles are more about the candidate than they are about the party and the issues that we care about.”

But, as previous posts here on other stories have indicated that only tells part of the story with the Clinton backers and is a bit too polite. Several news organizations have noted that the some of the Clinton supporters who are balking (and some of those working actively against Obama) are not doing it based on problems with Obama on specific issues but because Clinton lost to Obama. The dragging of the heels is because Obama was not their candidate or, in some instances, because he defeated their candidate. A lot of it is political payback. Which — you heard this prediction here before — could make it tough for Clinton if she decides to run in 2012 after an Obama defeat. And her aides have already bought a 2012 website.

The implications of Obama being unable to win over voters who might agree with him — and some Democrats who during the primaries gravely warned about what will happen if the Supreme Court gets more Republicans on it but now seem unconcerned with the Court and more concerned with teaching Obama and his supporters a lesson on Election Day — are big. Strictly from a political standpoint, it means Obama is unable to win over voters whose self-interest would be served by voting for him even as McCain’s campaign repeatedly stubs its toe and in several areas moves to the right.

The conventional wisdom in many quarters was that this week was a win for Obama due to all of his mega-media coverage in Presidential-like settings. Fact or fiction? NBC’s First Read takes a look at the political realities.

Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro write:

We know this was a significant week; the question is was it enough to erase the doubts voters have with Obama about his ability to be commander-in-chief?

But just asking: Did this week tell us more about Obama or McCain? Watching McCain chasing the news cycle and his inability to not let Obama get under his skin — and the campaign’s — suggests that they could be reactive from this day forward. Why, for instance, did the campaign insist on the equal treatment (see network interviews) this week and not simply attempt to create its own week of coverage from the nets? They were second fiddle all week, and seemed to almost demand being highlighted in that way.

….Can the McCain camp win by simply hoping for an Obama slip-up or by reacting faster and faster? Yesterday in First Read, we noted that NBC/WSJ pollster Peter Hart said this election was Obama’s to win. But isn’t that also true for McCain? McCain can’t simply hope Obama loses this election or fails to adjust his campaign sail enough to capture the strong Democratic wind. Yesterday, actually, McCain finally seemed comfortable being the broccoli candidate — embracing his role as the serious guy juxtaposed to the rock star opponent. Will the campaign around him have the patience to accept McCain’s “keep on keeping on” promise he made to NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell?

A big story making the rounds now is that McCain may accelerate the announcement of his Vice Presidential pick to gain maximum political momentum.

Presidential candidates use the Veep pick to their advantage but this will be one of the first times in recent memory that the timetable of announcing the pick will have been determined by how it could help the candidate’s immediate campaign momentum needs. Not — as Jerry Seinfeld would say — that there’s anything wrong with that…