Sabato’s Crystal Ball – ANYBODY’S BALL GAME
A Response to Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and Larry J. Sabato on THE MYTH OF A TOSS-UP ELECTION:
07/24/2008
James E. Campbell on RESPONSE: ANYBODY’S BALL GAME
In their examination of the fundamentals and the polls to this point in the 2008 election, my esteemed colleagues Alan Abramowitz, Tom Mann, and Larry Sabato indicate that they believe that the presidential election is essentially a done deal. As they see the 2008 story developing, Barack Obama will win a comfortable victory, if not in an outright landslide, over John McCain.
[snip]
Aside from pointing out that anyone who relies on punditry of any sort deserves what they get, I must disagree with their view that this election will not be a close one. Their story about the election is incomplete. There are another three chapters to the 2008 story that strongly point to the election being a toss-up. First, though Democrats have many advantages in this election, these may look more formidable than they actually are. Second, Republicans have a significant advantage of their own. And third, there are some conditions that just plain favor another closely decided election.
-
elrod
