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A New Candidate for the GOP

petraeus.jpg No, I’m not talking about replacing John McCain for this year’s election. While almost all of the political news from the weekend for McCain looked better suited to an M. Night Shymalan film, I don’t expect anyone to be rushing the Senator toward the door. But for the moment, let’s assume that Shaun Mullen was correct in his earlier column and Barack Obama wins in November. (By the way, Shaun, I get nervous whenever anyone starts counting chickens before beaks are visible.) If the GOP needs a candidate for the next cycle, would it be so far fetched to consider General David Petraeus?

This crossed my mind as I watched Morning Joe today over my morning… joe, and saw Petraeus walking the streets of Baghdad with MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell. There is a body of media accumulating, along with the General’s larger than life and still growing personal story, which are the makings of a dream portfolio for any potential candidate. Petraeus already has his signature on a strategy which took a botched and failing war and turned it around to the point where it now stands on the verge of handing a functional democracy over to the Iraqi people. He will shortly be in charge of a larger theater with responsibility over our expected efforts to turn things around in Afghanistan. Should he pull off similar, measurable success there, what better point to close out a decorated and highly successful military career and shift his focus to a different type of public service?

It is true that our nation has a less than stellar history when electing military men to the White House. U.S. Grant was, by all accounts, an ineffective drunkarnd who was either prone or blind to massive corruption in his own administration. Ike often gets glowing reviews among sentimental Americans, but most neutral observers admit that he was a hands off leader, content to let others slug it out in the muck while he rode above the fray, and had the good fortune of leading during possibly one of the easiest political eras in our history. The post war boom, with national pride at all time highs and the economy surging on the shoulders of the greatest generation, could probably have been led by a blind badger. But we have also begun to recognize that no one person can master all the disciplines required to run America, and if they surround themselves with competent advisors and staff, strong leadership and a good moral compass may be enough.

There are also advantages to having a candidate who comes from a place entirely outside the political system. A quick look at our current candidates provides a reminder of how much trash you drag along from such a background. Obama gets the worst of it in the media, given all the grease on his sleeves from years spent grinding through the Chicago machine. But McCain has a few bruises himself, from the Keating Five scandal to land grab questions, the Martin Luther King jr. holiday and more. Petraeus emerges from a lifetime of military service with no such skeletons in his closet. Granted, we would need to check for any serious personal scandals in his past, (questions completely inappropriate to ask while the man is leading two wars) but assuming there’s nothing worse than a couple of youthful highjinks or indiscretions it should be a fairly easy vetting process.

So how does Petraeus make it from the battlefields of Basra to the White House Rose Garden? He’s a New Yorker, born (natural born!) and bred. His wife is the daughter of another distinguished general, and his parents have a compelling story. (His father was an immigrant sea captain from the Netherlands.) You may not have heard, (snicker) but we’ve had a spot of trouble in the Empire State Governor’s Mansion of late, with one guy leaving because of “family issues” and the current Democratic resident admitting to a history of drug abuse and marital problems. The seat is up for grabs in 2010. Were Petraeus to retire in the early part of that year and jump into the fray, New Yorkers would likely be gaga over him as he returned victorious from the battlefields to a ticker tape parade in the Big Apple. It’s true that Hillary has hinted at a 2010 run, but her image has taken a beating during her bloody primary with Obama, and while New York is a majority Democratic state, we have a history of electing moderate Republicans as Governors.

From there the math becomes easy. If either McCain is president in 2012 or Obama looks strong, Petraeus could sit tight, gaining more executive administrative experience and waiting until 2016. (He will only be 64 at the time.) Should Obama look shakey or McCain decide – at 76 years of age – to not run for a second term, the General would find himself ideally positioned to throw his hat in the ring in 2012.

Crazy? Maybe. But this is American politics. Crazy is almost a requirement any more. Oh, but General…? Just one word of advice. If you come to Albany, do try to stay away from the hookers. There seems to be something in the water here…

  • superdestroyer
    I hope when the Historians look back in a couple of decades they realize how bad the Bush family has been is identifying and developing talent. There is not a single politician that either President Bush helped mentor. They seem to be so interested in helping their own family that they will eliminate any other treat.

    Talking about someone without any political experience as a candidate for president clearly demonostrates how low the Republicans have fallen. the only reason that McCain is the candidate for president today is that the rest of the candidates were even worse than he was.

    And last, why would anyone become interested in Repubican Party poltics when it is quiet clear that the Republican Party is in a death spiral. If Petraeus he would be smart to become a blue dog Democrat in a southern state.
  • If he moves to the South, though, he gets the carpetbagger tag. New York may have a lot of opportunities for him, and he's a native. Of course, we're all assuming that Petraeus is a Republican at heart. I haven't found anything to indicate how he has registered in the past. For all I know he's a Democrat?
  • shaun
    Excellent post.

    There is much to like about Petraeus, but none of that readily translates into him being presidential timber. But then they said that about Eisenhower, too.

    It is important to note (despite SD's wingnut "developing talent" comment) that what set Petraeus apart is that the Bush administration, with Donald Rumsfeld and Tommy Franks as censors, willfully ignored the advice of many battlefield-smart generals in the run-up to and in the early years of the war. Bush HAD to listen to Petraeus because he had run out of phony strategies.
  • superdestroyer
    Shaun,

    If you think my comment is a wingnut comment, please list people who either President Bush identified as talented politicians who are now running for office. There are several individuals who worked in the Clinton White House who are now serving in Congress. I doubt if the same thing will ever be said about the Bush White House.

    Also, running as a Republican in a a deeply blue state is a stupid idea. McCain was a carpetbagger in Arizona and successfully ran for office. It was happened in several other places in the south. Running in New York as a Republican while the last few Republicans in the legislature are voted out of office is a very dumb idea.
  • RememberNovember
    I think we need to stop gushing about Gen. Petreus- rampant speculation leads to dissapointment when the "real" Petreus shows his colors outside the constrained parameters of the Military. He's a damn fine general, but let's not count the eggs before the chicken's hatched.
    He's already become enmeshed in the political dialog more than he should be. Why is he the poster boy for Iraq, when all the other competent military leaders who, for many reasons, bucked the Bush Doctrine and were given the heave-ho of retirement?

    - and SD :
    NY has had a mix of Republican and Democratic Governors- we vote on who will do the job, not what size flag pin they were on their lapel or how bleeding heart they are. We don't have time for glad- handing, and we don't tolerate BS.
    When one party screws it up we give the other a chance ( and they are equally capable!) to screw it up.
  • The rightwing has succeeded in making Petraeus an unassailable character in politics. BUT, I don't know if the public would want want to embrace a man whose star is so intricately tied to unpopular occupation of Iraq.
  • superdestroyer
    RemeberNovember,

    The NY Republicans are about to lose their last hold on power in the State Senate. When the Democrats redistrict in 2010 most of the remaining Republican State Senator s will be eliminate. A republican Governor in NY would have the same problem that Romney has in Mass.: having all of your vetos overridden while the Democratic Party does what it wants to. The real quesiton is how the Republicans in NY manage to accomplish anything given how extremely left the state is.
  • An unfair characterization of New York, in my opinion. The problem is that in the media all you generally hear about is New York City, which most certainly is quite far left wing in nature. However, Upstate makes up a significant (more than 2/5) portion of the population, if quite rural in nature for the large part, and skews significantly more conservative. (Though not Bible Belt type conservative, of course, but noticably to the right of the Big Apple.) Redistricting might be a harder sell than you imagine, and a GOP governor is a possibility in almost any given cycle.
  • What makes you assume Petraeus would be a Republican?
  • What makes you assume Petraeus would be a Republican?

    At the very least, he's allowed himself to become one of Bush's political pawns.
  • superdestroyer
    Jazz,

    The Democrats hold a supermajority in the State House while the Republicans hold a one seat majority in the State Senate. Given that the State votes more than 55% to the Democrats on state wide elections should be able to redistrict many of the Republican state Senators out of their seats.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_New_Yo...
  • Andy, I agree and mentioned that earlier in the comments. I can't find anything to indicate his political preferences, and he may, in fact, be a Democrat. Not sure why I get the impression he's an old school conservative who might normally gravitate toward the GOP, but it's just an impression, as I said.

    SD, the reason Joe Bruno did such a titantic job of holding the GOP together all these years is exactly because of the reasons you mention. He's been fighting a Dem majority which he knew he would never vote out of both houses at once. But he did manage to balance the needs (and potential outrage) of the upstate vote with the city interests. Hopefully Sheldon Silver and the Dems still understand that they can only run just so wild, even now, before they start a revolt in the back country which may come back to bite them.
  • superdestroyer
    Jazz,

    Given the demographic of the upstate voters, I doubt that any politicians will give them the time of day. There is no reason for Democratic politicians in the NYC area to spend time or money worrying about an area that is much older on average, poorer on average, and with an economy that is just not going to recover. There is no upside for a Democratic politician in NY to but effort into upstate issues.

    Eventually, upstate will be nothing more than vacation space for the rich New Yorkers who still have a car and can afford gasoline.
  • Since I live in the future vacation space, I think I may go cry for a while now.
  • runasim
    Before I could be happpy with a militray man in the WH, I'd have to be reeassured that he understands civilian life and appreciates the role civilian solutions to international problems. i think this country is overreliant on the military state of mind.

    I don't expect to see much of a following to my own state of mind, though This country does love its military heroes to the point of adulation. If you don't, then you are a traitor, in fact.
  • DLS
    Don't know anything about his politics. His reputation in the military is certainly good. The military is a bureaucracy, so anyone high in the military could get things done. He's useful for other tasks as well and as I value a more active, strong VP (like the first officer on a ship, and a "super-governor" as well as assistant to the President, the nation's #1 domestic policy official as I see it), he might be good as a VP for McCain.

    We all know Colin Powell was good. Many of us were willing to vote for him as President as early as 1992, and we really wanted him to run in 1996, not only in 2000.
  • DLS
    The other thing to keep in mind is that anyone in the military can probably be better trusted from the standpoint of knowledge and competence, but may also be subject to distrust (mainly by liberals, who are less pro-military and more anti-military than conservatives as a rule) because he might be naturally reluctant to grapple with what Obama or McCain face (involving something that's perhaps the only bright spot in Michigan these days other than the cranes in Ann Arbor, and something Michigan and the other heavy industry-automotive locations should be seeking more, not less, of)

    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN213...
  • runasim
    Jazz,

    i don't know which part of upstate you consider to be typical upstate NY, but a considerable Bible Belt has in fact formed in sections of it.

    When my son in-law joined the local volunteer fire fighters, he was questioned about his faith every time he showed up for work or meetings. There was definitely a right and a wrong answer to these questions, and as a result, there is one less volunteer fireman in upstate NY.

    For counter balance, there are the orthodox Jewish enclaves where the unwelcome mat is out very boldy for all outsiders, even for drop-by shopping. .

    I'm not saying that the enclaves typify all of upstate NY; far from it. . But before moving in anywhere, it's good to meet some of the neighbors to see what free space there is for your own undisturbed life style.
  • ChrisWWW,

    At the very least, he's allowed himself to become one of Bush's political pawns.


    Bush is his Commander. Unless you don't subscribe to the notion of civilian control of the military and the power of the executive as CINC, then senior officers are political pawns by definition.
  • DLS
    "Eventually, upstate will be nothing more than vacation space for the rich New Yorkers who still have a car and can afford gasoline."

    Actually, SD, New York doesn't only consist of New York City (where what passes for a Republican is a should-be-Democrat and liberal like Bloomberg, or in the great liberal-welfare-state years, Lindsay). It doesn't only consist of Hyde Park, a tourist attraction and Mecca for FDR-worshipers, or Albany, which everyone in the state of New York uses in conjunction with the word "dysfunctional." No. Upstate exists, and there are many problems in Upstate with little government fiefdoms, an arrogant attitude of raising taxes to solve every problem and "problem" that can be thought of, enormous future government retirement-related liabilities, and often a reputation as being a dumping ground for criminals from NYC metro as well as the site of frequent NYC-based criminal enterprises. I lived in Upstate for two years and saw all of this along with a dearth of industry, exodus of 30+ per cent of youth, and more and more remaining youth on welfare as the months went by.
  • DLS
    Hopefully Chris is not so extremist he is with the "General Betray-us" crowd.
  • Andy,
    Bush has trotted Petraeus out whenever he has needed a shield for his new policies. This has meant reciting briefings written by the White House and disseminating propaganda on the Republican's favorite news channel.

    Sure he may just be following Bush's orders, but his level of political involvement seems unprecedented at least in recent history.
  • Unfortunately DLS's mind is still stuck nearly a year in the past focusing on an inconsequential advertisement. Meanwhile, how many people have died in Iraq since then? How's the economy? Anything left of the Constitution?
  • DLS
    "Unfortunately DLS's mind is still stuck nearly a year in the past focusing on an inconsequential advertisement. "

    Sad to say, you're incorrect. My mind is on your attitude toward Petraeus today.
  • What's the punishment for criticism of Saint Petraeus these days? Death?
  • 4jarmy4
    As an insider, I know the General's political ambitions are, "Shermanesque", as in, William T. S., USA, Civil War.
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