Iran’s nuclear program, Israel and the US : buying time after Geneva

Iran’s goal seems to be to bait Israel into quickly making precision attacks on its nuclear installations before diplomatic options are exhausted. Its apparently irrational regime may think the mess in the region will be so great that it will obtain even bigger gains in political influence than those from the debacle in Iraq.

So it is deftly buying time through diplomacy and has received another prolongation of deadlines to halt its nuclear fuel enrichment activities. This concession was won a day ago at seven-nation talks in Geneva, which included the highest level US contact with Iran in 29 years.

The mess following the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan has given Iran prominence that it has not had in over 1,000 years. If it manages to acquire a nuclear weapon, it will obtain the prestige currently available to just eight or nine countries and enjoy the hard power required to secure the gains of political influence.

The theocratic regime also wants to expand Shia Islam and secure it against traditional Sunni enmity and dominance. The hard power required to facedown Israel serves this purpose by winning admiration of the Muslim street worldwide, regardless of Shia or Sunni affiliation. That would give Shia Islam the security it has not had in over 1400 years.

A sure way to peacefully pull the rug from under this path to the regime’s ambitions would be a sudden Israel-Palestine peace. That seems unlikely.

In the current situation, the first step to achieving the regime’s ambitions is to tighten control over the Iranian people. This is the agenda underlying Iran’s diplomacy. It wants wider talks on regional security arrangements that leave its regime and regional power intact while freeing it from all sanctions.

If such talks are definitely not on offer, the regime may prefer limited Israeli attacks because it can then stifle the opposition and assert quasi totalitarian rule for decades to come.

The Iran regime would fear an Israeli strike only if there were massive civilian casualties because that would end its rule. However, knowing the precision of Israeli and American weapons, it expects just enough casualties to rouse nationalist outrage causing the people to unify behind it.

The attacks would be a blessing in disguise because the regime is very shaky currently thanks to a worsening economy, corruption, unemployment, poor infrastructure, electricity outages and gasoline shortages. The anger against America in the region would be a bonus.

In a historic change, the Bush administration abruptly moved towards diplomacy by sending William J. Burns, the State Department’s number three official, to attend the Geneva meetings. This came on the heels of reports that Washington might open a US interests section in Teheran. Condoleezza Rice also cooled past rhetoric by saying that any country can change course and the US does not have “permanent enemies.”

But the suddenness has fed into perceptions that the Bush administration is reluctant to run the risk of third war in the region and prefers to push the nettle of Israel’s security onto the next President. So Teheran may think this is not the right time to start serious negotiations.

For its part, Israel seems to think that Sunni Arabs would quietly applaud if it damages Iran’s regional power. In preparation, it has begun to build bridges with mortal enemies like Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas because of the greater existential threat from Iran.

But it may be misreading how much its policies are hated by people on the Muslim street both Sunni and Shia. Precision strikes may undermine Sunni regimes through street protests while helping Teheran’s theocracy to control Iran for another 50 years.

Only widespread devastation among the people caused by Israeli attacks can dethrone the regime. Such preemptive devastation would be hard to justify as self defense especially since the regime is Israel’s enemy, not the people who are mostly their government’s helpless victims.

Postponing attacks has one clear advantage. It gives more time to Iran’s theocrats to dig their own graves through incompetence in bringing prosperity to their people.

In recent years, they survived because of the people’s nationalism after Bush called Iran an “axis of evil” and the war option was put on the table. They will not survive for long if the people are certain that no foreigners will attack their country.

If the fear of American-backed Sunni power and Israel is removed from the equation, the extremists in the current regime may be dethroned well before scientists can deliver nuclear capability. Then, the fear of a second holocaust would disappear forever.