Election 2008: Michigan
Over the years Michigan has seemed to be a Democratic stronghold, voting with the party in the last 4 Presidential races. But most of the races have been close and this will be a key battleground in November.
President: Michigan may be one of the few states where there are competing downdrafts. As in much of the country, the Republican brand is not popular here but neither is the Democratic one. Governor Granholm is not very well-liked and the party has also been hurt by the controversy over the seating of delegates at the Democratic convention.
Nonetheless, Senator Obama will benefit from the heavy minority vote in Detroit as well as the long-slumping economy. Senator McCain, though, could be helped by unhappy Hillary supporters and, if he picks native son Mitt Romney, that could also give him inroads.
In truth this is probably a tossup state but I have determined to assign everything one way or the other. I considered putting this in the Leans Republican category due to the delegate controversy but in the end decided to give the edge to Obama since he seems to have momentum at this point.
Leans Democrat (barely)
Senate: In the last 40 years the Republicans have won just 2 senate races (in 1972 and 1994). This trend is not likely to change this year. Incumbent Carl Levin will easily defeat State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk.
House: Republicans will hold 7 seats this fall while Democrats will keep control of 6. Two races will remain in play.
In the 7th District freshman Tim Walberg (R) will face off against either 2006 nominee Sharon Renier or State Senator Mark Schauer. The fact that Walberg won in the massively Democratic year of 2006 is a sign of his strength but it is still a marginal seat.
Leans Republican
In the 9th District incumbent Joseph Knollenberg will face State Senator Gary Peters (D) and suicide doctor Jack Kevorkian (I).
Democrats had hoped to make this a major target but Kevorkian may pull some of their votes away.
Leans Republican
2 Responses to “Election 2008: Michigan”
Tim Walberg barely won MI-07 in 2006 against a candidate with zero name recognition and no money. I should know because I volunteered for Sharon Renier, making phone calls in Albion. That Renier, with $34,000 actually won Calhoun County (Battle Creek) against Walberg and his $1.1 million budget shows how unpopular Walberg is.
This time State Senator Mark Schauer – much better known and liked – is running against Walberg. I think he's favored to win.
Also, Michigan is much stronger for the Democrats than you state. Many of the Reagan Democrat types in Warren and Livonia have actually left the state in the last several years. Some of the greatest depopulation is occurring there. Michigan politics follows one iron law: if black turnout in Detroit is high, the Democrat wins. Period. If it's low, as it was in 1994 and 1998, the Republican has a chance.
Also there is very little fallout over the primary disaster. Michiganders have moved on from that a long time ago. Polls in Michigan show Obama stronger and stronger than in the Spring.
I don't think this will be as close as 2004 unless Romney is the VP.
[...] Chris F. Masse wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptPresident: Michigan may be one of the few states where there are competing downdrafts. As in much of the country, the Republican brand is not popular here but neither is the Democratic one. Governor Granholm is not very well liked and … Read the rest of this great post here [...]