Peak oil really did happen but we really didn’t notice because peak demand happened at about the same time. Peak oil was somewhat mitigated by fracking and peak demand was somewhat mitigated by the rapid growth of the Chinese economy but both will be short lived. Increased fuel economy of automobiles combined with increased use of public transportation in the US has something to do with peak demand. BMW has announced it will be all electric or hybrid by 2020. After it’s recent scandal VW is using much of it’s R and D on electric vehicles. Even China realizes it must reduce it’s dependence on fossil fuels since pollution is killing up to 4,000 people a week children as young as 8 are dying of lung cancer, and the Beijing airport is closed several times a month because of pollution. Solar and wind power are now cheaper than coal for generating electricity although storage is still an issue.
Peak demand is probably a greater threat to the fossil fuel industry than peak oil. Some of the big oil majors are investing in alternate energy sources while others are concentrating on natural gas – also cheaper than coal for generating electricity. We will still need some coal to make steel but big coal is all but dead.
The problem with electric vehicles is infrastructure. This was never a problem with ICE vehicles as the oil companies themselves provided the service stations. The infrastructure for electric vehicles will have to be supplied by the auto manufactures themselves. Here in the Portland area the local electric utility has provided some charging stations but this has been largely an exercise in PR and inadequate to meet the needs of of a large fleet of EV’s . We also have some solar powered charging stations around minimizing the drain on the grid. The infrastructure for electric vehicles is something we should be discussing now.
An ideal source of power would would seem to be hydrogen fuel cells. Keep in mind that hydrogen is not an energy source but an energy transfer medium. It still takes more energy to produce hydrogen than you get when you use it in spite of recent advances. Infrastructure for hydrogen is even a bigger problem. The H2 molecule is very small which means it requires some very special plumbing to avoid leaks. I know this first hand since I have plumbed hydrogen in an industrial setting. It will be all but impossible to ship hydrogen via long long pipe lines so it will have to be transported by trucks.
Rail roads are also in play here. Most engines are diesel electric. Diesel powered generators produce the electricity that powers the the electric motors that actually propel the train. General Electric is researching battery tenders for locomotives which would seem to hold some promise. In theory the battery tender could be swapped out for a fully charged one as required. These tenders could be charged by solar and or wind in remote areas. Certainly a promising technology.
We could be on the edge of a “Brave New World” when it comes to transportation but big oil will fight it as long as they can.