The heinous terrorist attacks in Paris are a sign of desperation of Islamic State (IS) or Daesh affiliates. They are settling in for a long war of attrition against European allies of the US military campaign to contain and destroy Daesh in Syria and Iraq.
The well planned terrorism in some 15 different locations in Paris might result in over 250 dead on final count since almost half the 360 injured are fighting for their lives. The devastation was the latest example of the increasing terrorist capabilities of jihadist cohorts of IS in France.
But the attacks are also acts of desperation because their purpose was to create fear in France and Europe to turn public opinion against European participation in the US supported war against IS in the Levant.
Instead, French President Francois Holland has finally declared a state of war against jihadist terrorism. Thus, he has reaffirmed his participation in the American and British states of war against IS and jihadist terrorism in all its forms.
After an almost free run in Syria and Iraq, American determination has contained IS advances in Iraq and its power centers in Syria are under increasing pressure from US allies and Russian forces.
Washington is distrustful and displeased with Russia’s direct intervention but the Paris attacks demonstrate the importance of working together with all enemies of jihadist terrorism, especially in its incubators in Syria and Iraq.
Washington’s geopolitical rivalries with a resurgent Moscow may have to put aside for a while until the jihadists are enfeebled sufficiently to make them incapable of maintaining their occupation of territories in Iraq and Syria.
The only method of achieving that is to make it impossible for them to govern those territories in a stable manner. The governed will turn against the IS regime if it fails to restore stability to their daily lives even after they submit to its horrific moral codes.
The focus on deposing Bashar al Assad and establishing an inclusive government in Syria may cause a loss of momentum in the current military pressures on IS stemming from Russia and the US allies. That would give a breathing space to IS to create stable governance in its zones.
Successfully keeping up the momentum of military pressure on IS in the Levant will help to demonstrate to European jihadists the futility of their terrorist acts.
Very likely, IS supporters will try to mount major terrorist attacks inside Russia. But they should have little hope that Russian public opinion will turn against President Vladimir Putin’s intervention in Syria or cause him to change tack.
The Russian state’s response to terrorism on its territory has always been pitiless and without regard for collateral damage. IS can expect little success in creating fear among Russians through terrorist attacks in concert halls and restaurants.
However, IS may never be eradicated because it is more than a terrorist Sunni-Salafi movement with delusions of offering world domination as a gift to its version of God.
It is a precursor of changes in the post-World War II global order as radical as the ones that began transforming kingdoms into nation states.
The 20th century struggle was between liberal capitalist democracies and the totalitarian forces of communism and fascism. Now it centers on a violent rejection of any world order regulated by manmade laws applied by legitimate governments and defended by regular armies.
The rejectionists are hundreds, perhaps thousands, of armed groups with inconsistent desires fighting at times together and against one another. Their common motivation is to reject whatever ruling system is in place as they move from locality to locality.
They are similar to a cancer that advances from small footholds to conquer the entire organism. Their goal is to establish a system that replaces existing power centers with new ones subservient only to their theology.
The most brutal rejectionists rely on a messianic belief that victory is inevitable because their particular version of God is invincible and will help them to establish His kingdom on earth. The most troubling are IS and Al Qaeda and their affiliates.
All place their spiritual roots in the teachings of 18th century Saudi Sunni preacher Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab (1703–1792) and the Saudi Salafi movement that became prominent in the mid-19th century.
At some point, the US and its allies will have to confront the Saudi theologians and Islamic charities that inspire and give comfort to such messianic beliefs.