Election 2008: Louisiana

Lousiana is another of the states that tends to vote a mixed bag, Democratic for many offices but often Republican for President.

President: Obama would like to target the state but after Katrina the African American vote has been seriously reduced. With or without Governor Jindal on the ticket this should be a strong state for McCain.

Safe Republican

Senate: This is one of the few GOP Senate targets in 2008 but seems to have been drifting out of their reach recently. Incumbent Mary Landrieu barely won the seat in 2002 (in a runoff election) and she has been fairly controversial during her tenure.

The GOP recruited State Treasurer John Kennedy by convincing him to switch parties. He is a popular man but may suffer from those who resent his party switch.

Leans Democrat

House: Democrats will coast to victory in the 2nd and 3rd while the GOP will retain the 1st, 5th and 7th. Incumbent crook William Jefferson may lose in the 2nd District Democratic primary though.

In the 4th District incumbent Jim McCrery is retiring and there will be a strong contest to replace him in this generally Republican seat.

The GOP will choose between former Coroner and physician John Fleming, businessman Chris Gorman and attorney Jeff Thompson. Fleming would seem to have a slight edge due to name recognition.

The Democrats have to pick between attorney Willie Banks, Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche, minister Artis Cash of Shreveport and attorney John Milkovich. Carmouche would seem to have an edge due to his public profile.

The GOP nature of the district seems likely to endure.

Leans Republican

In the 6th District we have incumbent Donald Cazayoux (who won a special election earlier this year) against Republican State Senator William Cassidy. I had considered this to lean to the Democrats until State Senator Michael Jackson (D) entered the race as an independent.

Jackson is black and will exploit the split between the black and white segments of the Democratic party. If so, he will doom the seat for his party.

He still might pull out before November but as long as he is in the race this is another GOP gain.

Leans Republican

With this pickup for the GOP the net Democratic gain is down to +1.