Contradictory Polls: Obama Falling, Obama Rising
Several polls within 24 hours paint a dramatic if contradictory portrait of the state of the race for the Presidency between the presumptive party nominees — indicating that the novelty has worn off for Democratic Senator Barack Obama who at worst is falling faster than the stock market (well, perhaps not THAT fast) and at best making lukewarm headway in increasing his support.
The polls underscore the danger of reporting one poll as Gospel, because as soon as one poll comes out, another emerges that contradicts the first one.
The disparities are stark. Newsweek’s new poll has Obama going from a 15 percent lead over McCain to just 3. CNN finds Obama ahead by eight. Gallup’s Daily tracking finds Obama has widened his lead slightly over McCain and is now ahead by six points.
And the latest Rasmussen report? It shows a dead heat: 43 percent for each candidate.
But the bottom line is this:
1. Obama is far from coming close to closing the deal. And that’s just among Democrats since some Clinton supporters and donors are balking and news stories suggest part of the reason is political payback.
2. McCain continues to stub his toe, even with his highly-touted staff shakeup, but due to Obama’s seeming deflation is still very much in the running. Lingering reservations about Obama — whose charisma in interviews and some appearances does not match his charisma in his major speeches — coupled with Obama’s subtle and not-so-subtle policy shifts as he moves to the center combined with the reservoir of goodwill McCain enjoys from independent voters to make McCain one of the strongest Republican choices to run against Obama.
If McCain’s campaign is stuck on stumble and Gramm-foot-in-mouth mode, Obama’s seems falling behind in bringing the Democratic party together and “taking off”.
These polls are contradictory but the cold, hard truth for Democrats is this:
Even the relatively good ones show their presumptive nominee is having trouble consolidating his party’s support and enlarging his national support.
This shouldn’t give solace to Clinton supporters, since their lack of support for Obama will most definitely mean Obama supporters will balk at supporting her if Obama loses and Clinton runs in 2012. Obama supporters feel as Clinton supporters do: that this is their historic moment. And if it’s scuttled due to Clinton supporters sitting on their hands due to hard feelings that stem from personal ire instead of substantive policy differences, you can bet your money in Vegas that another Clinton campaign will face payback due to perceived Clinton supporters’ 2008 payback.
Unless something changes, the Democrats seem to have a party rift that will either not heal or not heal completely, even with the future of the Supreme Court hanging in the balance. Could that change? Unleash Phil Gramm a bit more and perhaps it can..
The worst –almost shocking — news for Obama comes via a Newsweek poll, which shows a sharp drop in support:
A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama’s glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month’s NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.
Obama’s rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate. Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience–an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who’d slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June. Obama’s reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.
The worst news for Obama? He’s losing support among independents, who at this point consider McCain the real deal:
More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics. This is a major concern since Obama’s outsider credentials, have, in the past, played a large part in his appeal to moderate, swing voters. In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June’s NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.
Obama’s overall decline from the last NEWSWEEK Poll, published June 20, is hard to explain. Many critics questioned whether the Democrat’s advantage over McCain was actually as great as the poll suggested, even though a survey taken during a similar time frame by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg showed a similarly large margin. Princeton Survey Research Associates, which conducted the poll for NEWSWEEK, says some of the discrepancy between the two most recent polls may be explained by sampling error.
As the dog days of summer set in and Americans take a break from the daily political band-and-forth, a new CNN analysis of several recent national opinion surveys show Barack Obama with a sizeable lead over John McCain.
In the latest CNN Poll of polls, the Illinois senator holds an 8-point lead among registered voters nationwide, 49 percent to 41 percent, with 10 percent still undecided.
The 8-point spread is up 2 points from a CNN poll of polls released one week ago. It is double the margin it was one month ago, days after the prolonged Democratic race ended.
The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update finds Barack Obama leading John McCain by 48% to 42% when registered voters are asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.
Obama has typically held a modest advantage over McCain since early June. The six percentage point lead in the latest results, based on July 8-10 polling, ranks among the presumptive Democratic nominee’s bigger leads, just one point shy of a high seven-point lead in June 7-9 polling.
In the last two weeks, Obama’s share of the vote has ranged between 46% and 48%, while McCain’s has ranged from 42% to 44%. So while preferences have not shifted dramatically, Obama enjoys a larger lead in the latest report because his support is now at the upper end of his recent range while McCain’s is at the lower end of his.
The close nature of this race is underscored by a Zogby poll….but that poll also shows Obama way ahead if electoral votes are counted on the firm’s polling results:
In key battleground states in the South and West, Democrat Sen. Barack Obama currently enjoys leads in Colorado and New Mexico, traditional Republican “red” states that are clearly in play this election season, the latest Zogby Interactive polling shows.
Meanwhile, Republican Sen. John McCain currently leads in Florida, while two other red states – North Carolina and Virginia – could go either way.
Libertarian candidate and former Republican Congressman Bob Barr is having a negative impact on McCain’s efforts, particularly in Missouri and Colorado.
These findings are some of the highlights of an extensive package of national online polls that included a total of 46,274 likely voters. Nationally, the poll found Obama leading McCain 44%-38%, with Barr at 6%. A Zogby calculation of the Electoral College count, based on this and other polling, Obama leads McCain, 273-158. A total of 11 states with 105 electoral votes are too close to call and remain undecided.
Meanwhile, the latest Rasmussen report shows a dead heat:
The race for the White House is tied. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attract 43% of the vote. When “leaners” are included, Obama holds a statistically insignificant 47% to 46% advantage. Today is the first time that McCain’s support has moved above 45% since Obama clinched the nomination on June 3. It’s also the first time the candidates have been tied since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination…
For most of the past month-and-a-half, Obama has led McCain by approximately five percentage points. It remains to be seen whether this recent tightening of the race reflects real change or is merely statistical noise.
It’s also notable that one Rasmussen political barometer now seems to be dropping:
Rasmussen Markets shows there are no clear favorites for the Veepstakes in either political party. However, the markets currently give Obama a 69.5 % chance of winning the White House.
So in a nutshell:
–McCain is running a campaign that is now getting a thumbs down from even many Republicans in terms of staying on message, smoothness and nimbleness.
–The public has tasted Obama as the flavor of the month and now he’s no longer a novelty and his change message has been at least temporarily overshadowed by his shifts in positions and stances that have angered the progressive wing of the Democratic Party which has shown in the past that it would rather lose elections than vote for someone who is not pure enough.
–Obama’s policy shifts have not been indicative of a “teflon candidate” but have hurt him. His oversight in asking supporters to give money recently to help Clinton erase her debt followed by a quick mention won’t help him with Clinton supporters who increasingly seem willing to put personal ire over what they had previously insisted was a thirst to get a Democrat into power to set and change the national agenda. All the talk from Clinton supporters during the campaign about crucial it was to get a Democrat into the White House to halt the rightward shift of the Supreme Court was apparently just that.
The longstanding political question based on what is now a cliche has been:
If the Democrats due to national circumstances and bungling on the GOP’s part were virtually handed the White House on a silver platter, could they blow it?
The answer, increasingly, seems to be:
Yes.
Cartoon by Eric Allie, Cagle Cartoons
17 Responses to “Contradictory Polls: Obama Falling, Obama Rising”
[...] Contradictory Polls: Obama Falling, Obama Rising The Moderate Voice – USA It?s also the first time the candidates have been tied since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination? For most of the past month-and-a-half, Obama has led … See all stories on this topic [...]
Barak Obama is wedded to the Democratic party who cannot find it in their hearts to do anything but blame people for stuff. Im even getting the revelations that they are wanting the big 3 in Michigan to burn because they voted for Hillary and Not Obama.
This party is in worse shape then is the GOP and the GOP is nearly dead. If it was not for the war in Iraq the Democrats would have nothing to talk about. This is not Barak Obama's fault but he is wedded to this party and it is this parties inability to deal with one over ridding issue that will in my opinion cause all those independents to vote for McCain.
Solving the energy crisis. His party wants to change light bulbs, save the owl and rely on Green in 2030. Great. Im all for that. But what about TODAY. Uh Change Two light bulbs??????
Speaking for myself only: I'm finding the constant drumbeat of “help pay off Hillary's debt” to be extremely off-putting.
I've been supporting Obama for months, and have donated to his campaign twice, but the most recent donation was a bit reluctant — not at all because I don't support Obama still (I do), but because I'd prefer funds go to his campaign rather than hers.
So I think there's something to that analysis.
The Newsweek poll from two weeks ago was bizarre, and I'm not surprised it's adjusted. However, since it does indicate a shift in the independent voters, I understand some of it. To me, as an independent, the fiscal marriage is bothersome. It's a reminder that, however much Obama does not “toe the party line”, he's part of the machinery.
Of course, the same holds true for McCain as a Republican — but he's not appealing to his supporters for money for somebody else's defunct campaign, as far as I know. The reminder is not in (independent) people's faces.
Actually, Neocon, the primary issue is what to do today, but Obama's program is questionable when it comes to the future as well. Here I'm not stating the obvious again, that only fools would believe the 2030 goal(s) would be achieved. The bigger question here is, are the goals right and are the methods considered to reach those goals what we should be doing and what's best for this nation?
Also of concern about an Obama presidency is whether he'll be a pushover for entrenched Democratic special interests (not just the powerful in Washington who we can predict will largely have their way) who will benefit at Americans' expense.
I.e., underneath the slick packaging is Obama a throwback to the Sixties, even? (Not the radicalism that ruined liberalism in this country to this day, but the often good-intentioned but destructive and failed liberalism. “Each of these babies has a different daddy. It's my job to have them and it's your job to take care of them, Mr. Mayor!” (New York at its liberal zenith prior to BANKRUPTCY from its liberalism)
“they are wanting the big 3 in Michigan to burn”
The Big Three certainly don't deserve a federal bailout (nor a state bailout, though that may be possible or even likely provided the Dem leadership here in Michigan is grown-up rather than robotically and parasitically assuming Washington, DC should do it, which is likely). Incidentally, Obama as being “part of the machinery” makes me think of the Big Three, long operating on an obsolete model that is still in existence today (defying reality for more than twenty years), and an Obama team that might re-introduce failed old models of governance in Washington next year.
One thing is certain, Obama does seem overqualified to be malleable. I think this is why he's been so appealing to the GOP and why they helped promote him over the stalwart Clinton.
Just in case he survives the new poll “slips” and BigMedia trashing blitz they have planned for his..um…private affairs…and political blunders…and Reverend Wright, at least they know they'll still effectively be running the place if Obama somehow still takes the oath next January.
In short, I don't think the GOP cares whether Obama or McCain are ahead in the polls. Effectively it means the same thing in the final wash.
The GOP knew all along who represented real change and they spared no effort making sure that candidate was knocked out of the running, even with more popular votes…just like they did to Gore…another one who meant real change.
Change is not something the GOP/BigOil welcomes. And hence the reason they (covertly) love Obama so much.
I hate to inject race into this but Senator Obama WILL stay as center as possible in his words to avoid being the liberal black guy which equals radical black militant which equals Farrkhan-lite to many. He is AFRAID of the “liberal black guy” tag. That's a death sentance. So at the risk of losing some progressives and Democrats (yes I separate them), he's playing “Centerball” as much as possible. And it's keeping him in the running. Better a tie than 25 points behind. Plain and simple.
Also, Democrats have been running to the center FOREVER. We just have more visibility into the candidates these days. They can't hide as much.
True, too bad the guy is underqualified to run the country compared to his dem opponent Clinton..
Well I suppose qualification and delivery are trivial matters to consider when we have more important things like the color of skin to consider..
Yeah T_Steel I have grown over the months to realize that Barak Obama really does want to be different but I cannot help but notice one thing above all else that let me know that he is wedded to the Democratic party and MUST toe the line with their wishes.
The reversal on campaign financing. The DNC saw this as the holy graille. The ability to draw huge sums of cash to bury the GOP and THEY………NOT OBAMA………BUT THE DNC forced him to cave on his own principals. So the very first decision he had to make as the official candidate was to FOLLOW DNC marching orders.
This tells me he is nothing more then a party man who must toe the line. IF he does not. Its a Jimmy Carter Presidency who promised congress that he would go over their heads to the people and he did and he ended up with 18 percent interest rates, 8 percent unemployment, Inflation, stagflation because congress said “We'll show you whose in charge.” And they did and this is my fear for Obama.
I'll begin to worry about Obama's dropping poll numbers (especially among moderates) once we have a couple debates between McCain and Obama under our belts and we see compare them side by side….
[...] Obama Plunges in Newsweek Poll! The Moderate Voice: Contradictory Polls: Obama Falling, Obama Rising The Other McCain: A Democratic Landslide? Hot Air: A Commander in Chief That Fears the Military? [...]
Actually the CNN “Poll” is not a poll. It's an average of three polls – one of them is the LA/Blomberg outlier with Obama 12 up that was made before 3 weeks. CNN probably playing with the polls in favour Obama – they also 'choose' the daily poll from recent time with the highest advantage for him in the Gallup daily tracking poll – 6 points.
T_Steel and StockBoy have it right I believe. The enthusiasm which has waned will reassert itself the more we see Obama and McCain compared and contrasted – debates for instance. Politics functions on a plane all it's own, which explains Obama's moves toward the center (not to mention polls), but Progress in the real world is critically more important than preserving the downward sliding status quo the GOP has brought us. McCain would bring us more of this downward slide, and I suspect this will all become more painfully obvious by the end of summer. Remember, the Bush administration is still in power and could easily do even more to negatively influence McCain's appeal.
[...] Carol Novack wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptAnd if it’s scuttled due to Clinton supporters sitting on their hands due to hard feelings that stem from personal ire instead of substantive policy differences, you can bet your money in Vegas that another Clinton campaign will face … [...]
[...] Polls: Obama Falling, Obama Rising Carol Novack wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptAnd if it’s scuttled due to Clinton [...]
I agree that Obama will do better later — people are suffering at present from 'primary fatigue' and the honeymoon between him and progressives was bound to end. Better now than closer to the election. The more they look at McCain, the less likely they'll be to complain about Obama.
For what it's worth, here are my thoughts:
As a Floridian and former Hillary supporter, I disagree with some of the media discussion about what's driving the resistance. I talk to a lot of people who swear they won't vote for Obama (psst! they will, though). They aren't all motivated by love for Hillary, but by fury at the DNC. Many of them believe — as I do — that he'd have won eventually anyway. But they don't like the way his campaign played the game.
People have tended to dismiss Clinton hardliners with an airy wave of the hand. That was always a mistake. If you look at the popular vote during the primaries, there was a LOT of support for Clinton. And among these people — never mind if they are right or wrong — is a widespread perception that they AND their candidate have been dissed, and continue to be dissed, by BOTH Obama's campaign AND his supporters.
At this stage, It's not about Clinton any more than a person's support for a particular college football team is about the individual members of the team. The camps have hardened around the candidates in a way that I doubt either one would have wished.
And the problem Obama has isn't that he beat Clinton — many bitter-enders concede that he'd have won anyway.
Many are furious at the DNC and the party for trying to end the primaries (VERY) early. It turns out that people really did feel passionate about this process; they wanted all their votes to count, and many feel that the party itself tried to disenfranchise them to pick the candidate it wanted rather than let them pick the candidate. (In other words, they fail to distinguish between the 'right' to participate in picking the candidate and the right to participate in picking the president).
Sadly for Obama, they want to vent their rage at the party or to punish it for treating them — as they see it — without the respect they feel they were entitled to expect. One said that she couldn't see any way to do that except by refusing to vote for the nominee. She doesn't dislike Obama, but she wants to make the Democratic party and its various arms and operatives understand that they can't afford to do this again.
Obama is also being blamed for something I don't believe was his fault — the perception of H's supporters that the media did its best to destroy her.
I would like to see Obama bring those people into the fold. Sadly, too many of his surrogates etc. have publicly expressed the view that the Hillary intransigents are just bitter, petulant, racist, sore losers, etc. rather than responding to a perceived (rightly or wrongly doesn't matter) imbalance or fundamental lack of fairness in the primary processes.
I don't think a lot of them care whether Hillary is hurt in 2012 by what happens now. It's only a little bit about her or Obama per se. This isn't about the candidates, but about aggrieved Hillary supporters' grievance. . And in the end, it doesn't matter whether anyone thinks they should or shouldn't be aggrieved.
Obama needs their votes; and more to the point — in a failing economy, where many of his young constituents are paying $4 per gallon for gas — he needs their money. He's going to have to work to prove to him that he really IS the right person to represent them.
Hopefully the convention will bring back the excitement and drive up support. I think it will. And hopefully his campaign and his supporters will realize that insulting and shaming the hold-outs — as some of his surrogates have done — isn't helpful to him.
Damozel, good comments. I want to add one thing to this, “Many are furious at the DNC and the party for trying to end the primaries (VERY) early. It turns out that people really did feel passionate about this process; they wanted all their votes to count, and many feel that the party itself tried to disenfranchise them to pick the candidate it wanted rather than let them pick the candidate.”
Obama was all for letting the primaries play out to the end, he never asked for them to end early. He foresaw the situation we are now in and tried to deflect it…. Unfortunately he is being unfairly blamed (just like your comment about Hillary's supporters' perception that the media did it best to destroy her and those supporters are blaming Obama).