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Responding to Iran: Compare and contrast

missile.jpgWe’ll return to domestic policy analysis later today, but let’s take a look at the immediate response from the two campaigns regarding Iran’s test firing of long range missiles last night. First up, the McCain response.

“Iran’s most recent missile tests demonstrate again the dangers it poses to its neighbors and to the wider region, especially Israel. Ballistic missile testing coupled with Iran’s continued refusal to cease its nuclear activities should unite the international community in efforts to counter Iran’s dangerous ambitions.

Iran’s missile tests also demonstrate the need for effective missile defense now and in the future, and this includes missile defense in Europe as is planned with the Czech Republic and Poland. Working with our European and regional allies is the best way to meet the threat posed by Iran, not unilateral concessions that undermine multilateral diplomacy.”

And now the Obama response:

“There’s no doubt we’re seeing rising tensions in the area, and it’s part of the reason why it’s so important for us to have a coherent policy with respect to Iran. It has to combine much tougher threats of economic sanctions with direct diplomacy, opening up channels of communication so that we avoid provocation but we give strong incentives for the Iranians to change their behavior. We’ve got to have the kind of aggressive diplomacy that unfortunately has been absent over the last several years.”

Obama comes straight out of the gate with a call for more “agressive diplomacy” which should remind us that we are currently seeing some very hopeful signs of progress with North Korea after international pressure and diplomacy were brought to bear over a long period of time. Senator McCain’s response carries the usual derogatory “concessions” comments, implying that diplomacy and negotiations are the weak sister approach. He also immediately swings to the missile defense system, implying a military solution to the problem. What he fails to mention is that Russia has already threatened to blow up any missile defense installation placed with the Czechs. When you combine that sort of reckless saber rattling, consequences be damned, with McCain’s rather easy tendency to make jokes about killing Iranians, or just bombing them, and you have enough to greatly concern me when it comes to matters of foreign policy.

On a related note, here is a separate question for you to consider. Why is it that when Israel conducts war games, flying jets in a clear path to demonstrate their readiness to conduct a first strike attack on Iran, they are “defending their rights,” but if Iran conducts such games and tests of military hardware, they are “threatening the region” and everyone is screaming at them to stop? Where is the criticism of Israel for ratcheting up the tension levels in the region?

  • RememberNovember
    So N Korea, has tested Nukes, and yet their brinkmanship is an open-arms by the Bush admin. Saber-rattling by Iran gets the dogs barking in AIPAC and Washington. Interesting.
  • Marlowecan
    Jazz said: "Why is it that when Israel conducts war games, flying jets in a clear path to demonstrate their readiness to conduct a first strike attack Iran, they are “defending their rights,” ...but if Iran conducts such games and tests of military hardware, they are “threatening the region” and everyone is screaming at them to stop?"

    Maybe because the leader of Iran has repeatedly threatened Israel with complete annihilation...Jews swept into the sea...etc?

    Maybe because Israel occupies a tiny sliver of coastal land.

    It is sort of like the IRA's memorable warning to the British govt. in the wake of their failed assassination attempt on Thatcher at Brighton: "We only have to get lucky once."

    Iran can lose a million men in the Iran-Iraq War...and it survives as a nation.

    If Israel loses one -- count 'em (1) -- war, given its size, it is all over for Israel. The country will cease to exist.
  • DLS
    Israel is responsible and trustworthy; Iran is criminal and untrustworthy. How difficult can this be to grasp?

    What's next, blaming Bush for Iran's provocative behavior?
  • Where is the criticism of Israel for ratcheting up the tension levels in the region?


    It's simple, we don't apply the same standards to ourselves or our allies as we do to our enemies.

    And thanks for linking to the McCain-Iran-death joke.

    If Ahmadinejad had said something similar I have no doubt that we would be discussing how crazy Iran is and how we should bomb them immediately because they can't be reasoned with.
  • Rudi
    Irans missiles are crude and she doesn't have nukes, let alone anything miniturized to fit on the dud missiles. Compare the rhetoric to India's, Pakistan's or Israelis missiles, some of which are now planned for subs.
  • Jazz, you've pulled the right quotes to highlight what is, imo, a profound difference between the two candidates.

    The president, contrary to all the bloviating and posturing, really only directly affects a limited number of arenas. For the rest of it, a president can cajole, or suggest, or browbeat, or even bully, but foreign policy is much different.

    The president sets the tone (via SoS), and basically sets up the framework (the list of options) for what can and cannot happen. Yes, congress has to be consulted for money (for long-term efforts) and things like treaties, but short-term reactions by the US come directly out of the executive branch.

    This matters.
  • Jazz, What the US media isn't reporting - but the European media did, yesterday - is that the Iranian war games are in response to a new US Naval exersize in the Gulf. Same as the old US/Soviet pattern of competing war games.

    Regards, C
  • DLS
    "Iran can lose a million men in the Iran-Iraq War...and it survives as a nation.

    If Israel loses one -- count 'em (1) -- war, given its size, it is all over for Israel. The country will cease to exist."

    Nuclear blast radii are cube-root scaled and more, smaller nukes cover a total area better than a single, bigger nuke -- but in the case of Israel's side and its population distribution, even a small nuke is an existential threat to it. Look at its size and the blast radii of a nuke. And multiple gas-filled missiles would achieve the same result.

    Meanwhile, to the Iranian leadership, it's worth fighting Israel and losing nearly 100% of Iran's population in a WMD exchange if in the end Israel ceases to exist. The arithmetic makes sense to the illogical, fanatical Iranian leadership.

    Still there are some mental or moral failures who would consider Israel to be as bad as the Iranians, if not worse.
  • Meanwhile, to the Iranian leadership, it's worth fighting Israel and losing nearly 100% of Iran's population in a WMD exchange if in the end Israel ceases to exist. The arithmetic makes sense to the illogical, fanatical Iranian leadership.


    That's just blatant and ignorant fearmongering. Iran has done nothing in the nearly 4 decades since their inception that would give the impression they're suicidal.

    And until you have some evidence to the contrary, you're just trolling.
  • DLS
    "the Iranian war games are in response to a new US Naval exersize in the Gulf"

    This was reported here in the USA, not only in Europe, and it differs from what you would expect -- as was reported yesterday, a representative news article today has explained that it is related to problems we are facing currently in Afghanistan. (More than one month in a row, we have had more deaths there than in Iraq).

    http://www.stripes.com/article.asp?section=104&...

    Earlier, yes, there was a Gulf exercise. Too bad if Iran doesn't like it; it's the threat in the region.

    http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jsURmFzdPQH...
  • DLS
    "That's just blatant and ignorant fearmongering" [more illogic deleted]

    It would be true of the far Left and its reaction toward any US success in the Middle East and even toward standing up to a regional threat like Iran. I laughed with much derision at the commercial yesterday on "progressive" [sic] radio here in town that shrieked about McCain's "more wars" remark (and also said this was why people should get and read The Nation).

    And those, such as in the Iranian government, who have been training thousands of suicide bombers speak clearly with their actions in addition to their words insofar as suicidal (and homicidal) ideation is concerned. You lose again.
  • DLS,
    Training someone to commit suicide on your behalf is not the same as being suicidal yourself.

    See: Osama Bin Laden and the 9/11 Hijackers.
  • mikkel
    Seriously, suicide bombers are used rationally as weapons because they have such strategic effect with minimal tactical difficulty. Suicide waves like Russians in WWII or Iran in the Iraq/Iran war were used to make up for a technological/training gap and as psychological weapon. Intelligence suggests that Iran has sleeper cells placed throughout the world for asymmetrical warfare if they are attacked, and the purpose is for defensive reasons.

    What frustrates me so much is the American mindset to judge all these enemies as insane psychopaths...they're not. If you actually read their strategy they are completely sane -- cold hearted murderers that have terrible goals perhaps, but sane nonetheless. This is precisely why Al Qaeda repudiated Zarqawi for so long, because he was a mindless killer. They were (rightly) afraid that his indiscriminate attacks would create a backlash against their organization and Zarqawi forced their hand by bringing in so many foreigners to fight they felt they had to actually embrace them. This was a fatal mistake for Al Qaeda in Iraq. Heck, bin Laden has never claimed that he could ever defeat us militarily, his goal was always to bring us into bankruptcy so we'd be forced to withdraw.

    And that's just a terrorist group, not rulers that has figured out how to control a fiercely independent, intelligent and cosmopolitan country for 30 years now.

    Even if Iran wanted to destroy Israel they would be incapable of it...even with several fission bombs. So really there is no way that they would or can carry out. There is no way they could give a bomb to a terrorist group and have it explode without us knowing the source. Neither science nor history support any of the fear mongering going on.
  • mikkel
    Marlowe I'm not sure why you say this "If Israel loses one -- count 'em (1) -- war, given its size, it is all over for Israel. The country will cease to exist." Maybe you mean if they are completely occupied. There is an obvious difference between losing a war and being occupied however, and since invasion requires such a massive amount of conventional firepower...which Israel dwarfs Iran in then I don't think it's an option for them either. If Israel could hold off the best technology of the day while being attacked on all sides then surely they could hold off 30 year old technology from one direction. I would also have no aversion to sending whatever troops/firepower we'd need to prevent Israel from being occupied. I think it's crucial they exist as a country.
  • mikkel,
    And coming to Israel's defense is very different from preemptively striking their enemies on their behalf.
  • mikkel
    Haha defending yourself is very different than preemptively striking. The one time I can think of a technical preemptive strike that clearly fell into self defense was when Israel attacked the armies that were completely massed on all sides and didn't stand down, especially since they were most likely a day or two from invasion. Other than a situation like that preemptive strikes aren't legal.
  • AustinRoth
    So, here we see the classic difference between modern Liberals and Conservatives.

    Liberals denigrate, marginalize and insult our allies, while exalting, promoting and encouraging our enemies.
  • runasim
    AR said:
    "Liberals denigrate, marginalize and insult our allies, while exalting, promoting and encouraging our enemies"
    ================
    So, here we see the classic difference between modern Liberals and Conservatives.......................Conservatives define anything short of a salute and unquestioning agreemnent as denigrating and marginaizing. That increases their enemies list substantially to include everyone who doesn't agree with conservative politics. Conservatives are thus defining themselves right out of a democratic process and into authoritarian rule.
  • AustinRoth
    Well, as long as Liberals continue to support Hamas and Hezbollah over Israel, visit and conduct illegal back-door negotiations with Chavez, etc., I will stick with my opinion.

    All you have put forward is an obvious trumped-up strawman. To flip your question on it's head, why do Liberals think that any criticism of our enemies, and any support of our allies, qualifies as 'authoritarian' and 'oppressive'?
  • Ghostdreams
    Well, I'm a liberal but I support Israel and don't understand how many of my "liberal" cohorts seem willing to support nations that want the absolute and complete annihilation of Israel (and every Jewish person on the planet).
    They also seem to forget that Iran has humanitarian issues that are beyond wrong (can we say, "stoning women to death, executing people for being gay, etc??).
    Perhaps some of the people supporting Iran would like to go live there for a week and see exactly how much freedom of speech, freedom of ideas, freedom of ANY kind they'd get there, eh?
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