Election 2008: Florida
Florida is always one of the key battlegrounds and this November will be no different. Recent polls have been back and forth but I suspect that there will be a clear trend prior to Election Day
President: No candidate from either party can afford to write off 27 electoral votes and I expect both sides to make a strong run for the state this year. Recent polling has shown a razor tight race but I think a few factors favor McCain here.
Hispanic voters are a key base to the Democrats in Florida and they have not shown great enthusiasm for Obama in the primaries. While I assume most will support Obama I also think many will stay home on election day. The same holds true for older voters who were strongly Clinton in the primaries and may be uncomfortable supporting a black candidate for President.
Leans Republican
House:As with most states most of the House seats are safe. Since Florida has many seats I will not be naming the safe ones district by district, but I see 14 Republicans and 8 Democrats as safe.
In the 13th District we have a rematch between incumbent Vern Buchanan (R) and Democrat Christine Jennings. This was one of the closest races in 2006 (decided by 369 votes) and there were allegations of fraud.
Jennings will make it a close race again but the advantage of incumbency will help out Buchanan.
Leans Republican
In the 15th District we have an open seat due to the retirement of Dave Weldon (R). Republicans will choose between several candidates but State Senator William Posey seems to have the edge. Democrats will pick between physician Steve Blythe and veteran Paul Rancatore.
The GOP has the edge here but any open seat is up for grabs this year.
Republican Favored
In the 16th District we have freshman Tim Mahoney (D) running for re-election. This was Mark Foley’s seat and the GOP would like to retake it. The Republicans will probably chose State Rep Gayle Harrell but the primary is likely to be hard fought.
As with Buchanan, incumbency helps Mahoney.
Leans Democrat
One Response to “Election 2008: Florida”
You are probably right that Florida leans to McCain. But that's mostly because of age, not the Hispanic population. Every poll so far has shown Obama doing much better among Hispanics than Kerry did. And Florida polls have shown Obama winning Hispanics, who traditionally vote Republican there.
Despite McCain's support for immigration reform, he is just not very popular among Latinos. Support for Clinton in the primary does not mean support for McCain in the fall.
Same goes for older Jewish voters, by the way.
But FL has a lot of retired military people and a popular Republican governor.
If Obama wins Florida, he wins the election in a rout.