Tracking the Course of the Bush-Cheney Juggernaut As It Lurches Toward Iran
As I noted yesterday, the Iranians have announced that their policy on uranium enrichment remains unchanged despite attempts by several nations to persuade them to cease and desist.
Barring a complete capitulation by the Iranians, which no one really believes is on the cards, is it possible that Bush and Cheney will leave office without opening a third military front in Iran? Is there really any doubt that Bush fully expects the diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran to comply with the demands of the US and Israel to fail? And that when the failure inevitably occurs, he is highly or at least quite likely to take or enable military action?
Bear in mind that I’m just a simple citizeness trying to piece together the signs in the media so I at least know what direction we’re rolling in. I don’t have any specialist knowledge in international law or military defense. I’m not about to get into a fight with anyone about which country is most in the wrong here.
But I do prefer to have some idea where those who have been drunk-driving the car for the last several years are taking me now. It’s not as if they have a great record of going in the right direction. At least I want to brace myself for the next teeth-rattling jolt toward the brink.
I mean…Take a look at the road signs we’re hurtling past.
For at least the last two years, Bush has been coming up with various reasons why we need to initiate military action against Iran and has been steadily beating the war drums.
Israel seems unquestionably to be preparing to launch an attack against Iran. (IHT) The day after the exercise ended, Israel’s now deputy prime minister (formerly its defense minister) said that if Iran continues its nuclear weapons program, Israel will attack and that such an attack would be ‘unavoidable.’ (Reuters) On September 6, 2007, the Israelis initiated attacks against a suspected nuclear facility. (ABC News) Some in the administration supported these attacks; others apparently did not. (ABC News) But there is little question that the US shared some corroborating evidence with the Israelis.
Today, The Telegraph reports that the Pentagon is very worried that Israel will launch an attack against Iran in the next 12 months….whether or not such an attack can even accomplish their goals.
Gaps in the intelligence on the precise location and vulnerabilities of Iran’s facilities emerged during recent talks between Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Israeli generals, according to an official familiar with the discussions who has briefed Iran
experts in Washington and London.
Recently, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Admiral Mullen, stated that for the US to open a third front in Iran (in addition to Iraq and Afghanistan) would not be a good idea at this time. (BN-Politics). But Bush has said that all the options, including the military one, remain on the table (BN-Politics)
Seymour Hersh reported this week on the Bush administration’s covert activities in Iran:
Late last year, Congress agreed to a request from President Bush to fund a major escalation of covert operations against Iran, according to current and former military, intelligence, and congressional sources. These operations, for which the President sought up to four hundred million dollars, were described in a Presidential Finding signed by Bush, and are designed to destabilize the country’s religious leadership.
"Clandestine operations against Iran are not new. United States Special Operations Forces have been conducting cross-border operations from southern Iraq, with Presidential authorization, since last year." (New Yorker)
On this score, The Telegraph notes:
The Americans had spies in Iran until they were rounded up in 2003 and now they do not have much by way of humint [human intelligence] on the ground. The Israelis have better information. But the Americans went away from the meetings unconvinced that the Israelis have enough intelligence on where to strike, and with little confidence that they will be able to destroy the nuclear programme."
The shortage of good intelligence could explain reports that President George W Bush has quietly sanctioned a dramatic increase in covert operations by American special forces inside Iran.
Admiral Mullen’s opposition to military action — based at least partly on ‘intelligence gaps’ —places him at odds with hawks in the Bush administration, led by Vice-President Dick Cheney. (The Telegraph)
Keen for their own differing reasons to resolve the dispute through diplomacy, six world powers recently offered an ‘incentive package’ to induce the Iranians to cease their uranium enrichment program
According to The New York Times, the Iranians said that they intend to go on enriching uranium as before.
The Iranian response was filled with criticism of the way the six world powers — the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — have conducted the diplomacy.
“The time for negotiating from the condescending position of inequality has come to an end,” the response said, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity under normal diplomatic rules.
But their response is nevertheless regarded as ‘oblique,’ requiring further study. As this New York Times article notes, at least this time they didn’t reject the proposals outright.
…Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, said Iran would be willing to open a comprehensive negotiation with Javier Solana, the European Union foreign policy chief, and the six world powers involved in confronting Iran’s nuclear ambitions….
“We intend to study the Iranian response,” said Gordon D. Johndroe, deputy White House press secretary, in a statement. He said the United States would discuss the letter with the five other governments — Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — “before responding formally.”…
Still, some officials involved in the negotiations expressed disappointment. “There is nothing new in the response,” one said.
Western officials have long contended that Iran wants to prolong the diplomatic back-and-forth so that it can continue its nuclear activities.
They seem willing to go on talking.
Will talking do any good?
Back to The Telegraph:
A former head of Mossad, the agency whose main responsibility is overseas intelligence, told The Sunday Telegraph last week that Israel would have to act within a year to prevent Iran securing nuclear weapons.
Those familiar with the Israeli-American military talks believe that Israel is still determined to act before Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to build a bomb, and before Tehran has acquired the Russian SA-20 air defence system to protect its nuclear facilities. "The Israelis have a real sense of urgency," the official said. "They are stepping up their preparations. But the Israelis and the Americans are worried about the other’s lack of intelligence.
According to one CIA agent ‘with three decades of Iranian experience,’ the position of Bush Administration hawks such as Cheney is as follows:‘ "Their belief… is that the US would get the blame from Iran whether or not we play a major role in any attack, so we might as well do the job properly."’ (Telegraph)
What an interesting rationale: ‘We might as well jump in, since they’ll probably blame us anyway.’ In other words, if you think you’ll get sent to the principal because the guy sitting next to you throws a brick through the library window, you might as well throw a brick through the library window too.’ What’s the difference between innocence and complicity if you’re convinced you’re going to get blamed? Bush and Cheney aren’t the only ones who worry about human intelligence.
I for one believe that once you have officials ‘looking into’ feasibility, the outcome has already been decided. According to The Telegraph, defense and intelligence officials are projecting various outcomes that may result from ‘attacks featuring varying levels of American involvement.’ On that theory, what can we expect?
….Gen Mohammed al-Jafari, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, warned that any attack on Iran would be "regarded as the
beginning of war"…The ex-CIA officer told The Sunday Telegraph that the planned attacks ranged from a full-blown assault on 2,000 targets inside Iran to logistics and intelligence support for Israel, if the Jewish state decided to go it alone.
The United States is preparing ways to cope with retaliation from Iran, likely to include attempts to cut off oil supplies, block the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf and launch attacks on American naval ships there and on US bases in Bahrain. The US Navy has recently changed its rules of engagement for warships in the Gulf to make them better able to combat "swarming" attacks by large numbers of small boats, used by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. (Telegraph)
In the meantime, Pentagon officials are worried that an Israeli attack, if launched, wouldn’t accomplish its intended goals because of insufficient intelligence about the locations of the bases. (Telegraph) They’re afraid that at best such an attack would slow down development of a nuclear weapon. (The Telegraph)
Will cooler heads prevail in the long run? In the long, long run of Bush-Cheney, do they ever? And if not, what price all the bickering over which nominee has the better or more realistic plan for Iraq?
CROSS-POSTED AT BUCK NAKED POLITICS
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12 Responses to “Tracking the Course of the Bush-Cheney Juggernaut As It Lurches Toward Iran”
DAMOZEL, what's your opinion of the state of affairs if Iran produces nuclear weapons? Is that a bad thing, or no big deal?
It seems to me that the Left's obsession with the so-called Bush regime is what Freud would call wish-fulfillment.
You sense that there's something dangerous out there, but refuse to confront it rationally. So you retreat to baby-like emotions. You wish that President Bush was the most evil phenomenon you had to worry about, so you write as if it were so.
(But deep down, you know that's false.)
Syria built a nuke plant. Israel bombed it.
Iraq built a nuke plant. Israel bombed it.
Iran is buidling a nuke plant……Israel has……………..??????
Lets not forget the function of the hezzbollah war was to determine how effective the bunker busters were. That is why they Israelis went into southern Lebanon after saying they wouldn't. They needed to see how effective the bunker busters were. Since then the USA has been modifying their bunker busters.
Gee I wonder why???
Kryon, I think there may be a cabinet post waiting for you in the imaginary world where Dick Cheney has appointed himself the next president.
As for a third miliary front being opened in Iran, IF that turns out to be the crowning glory of the Bush/Cheney mess, then as a loyal American I will support it, but only if those two polecats are in the front lines.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Some Democratic lawmakers questioned on Wednesday whether a new Bush administration request for $88 million to fit “bunker-busting” bombs to B-2 stealth bombers was part of preparations for an attack on Iran.
The proposal was included as part of a nearly $200 billion request for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that the Bush administration sent to Capitol Hill on Monday.
The request included $87.8 million for further development of the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or MOP, a conventional bomb designed to destroy hardened or deeply buried targets.
Folks the real problem with the middle east is that we have tried to contain it for so long that the moderate or at least semi moderate governments are really not in control at all.
I fear that as John McCain stated that we might very well be in the middle east for a long time is a serious prospect. If that is so then its time to bring the troops home from Japan, Korea, Germany and redeploy them to the United States so that we can use their assets while not drastically improving our own military.
In addition I am in favor of raising taxes and going on gasoline rationing. In addition we need to drastically work on balancing the budget and paying down the debt in the middle of all this.
We can fight a war or we can have massive social programs. We cant do both. America must decide.
Or we can as a nation drill………drill……..drill and render the middle east inconsequential until we can bring about nuclear power, wind generators, solar panels, tidal harness genarators. hybrids, electrical cars, cars that get 50 mpg and in the course of our switch from fossil fuels we can drastically reduce our carbon footprint while exporting this new technology to other parts of the world.
But we must make a choice. We need guidance and direction. All I see from Obama is….well, um I will make a judgement. McCain is well, um mabey we should drill and give a prize to someone who makes a better Battery.
Were surrounded by nitwits.
If it is true that Iran has put its nuclear production equipment under 27 meters of steel reinforced concrete-which in and of itself is made much stronger due to small fiberglass pieces being introduced into the concrete-which is also under dirt and stone, I don't see how you can get to it, except with maybe a few nukes dropped one after the other in the same spot, and put on penatrators for a ground level explosion. Is gwb fixated enough on Iran, and do the neocons(cheney) have enough influence to make gwb go ahead and bomb Iran? What would Iran do in return? Close the straits? Sink 1 oil tanker? Boy the price of oil would fly past $500 a barrel if that happened, hell, the price would go past $500 if Iran did nothing, the US action alone would drive the price up.. What would China and Russia do? Stand by and do nothing? Somehow I think not. Russia signed a mutual defense treaty with Iran earlier this year. What would the US military leaders do? Refuse to implement the orders? Resign en mass? Is there a general out there who would take any order to bomb Iran and run with it? yes there is. Could the evangelical movement within the military push for this? They want Armageddon-at least the rev Hagee version does. Per Sy Hersh, the window for the attack on Iran closes by Aug 31, so the countdown to attack is, as of today, 56 days and counting.
Newsflash, all the boys are in bed together. Iranian officials, the Bin Ladens and the Bush family. So when one needs a favor that ultimately will play out to help the other (the maintenance of the GOP/BigOil price-fixing monopoly on American consumers to the benefit $$ of their core group) then of course they will oblige.
I can hear the phone call now.
Dubya: “Hey Emir, I need you to play along with this escalating violence thingy with Iran.”
Emir: “What's in it for me?”
Dubya: “Billions in profits heh heh…if Hillary gets in there'll be real change and price controls…even defection to renewable energy..”
Emir: “Dear Allah!! We cannot have that! What do you want me to do??..”
Dubya: “OK, here's the deal…we're busy promoting this Chicago non-electable punk named Obama…heh…heh…like Salem's brother “Osama”…heh heh… We've got BigMedia working on that one 'round the clock….then while that's happening, we trump up trouble in your country…imminent war…that type of thingy…then when Obama gets the nomination…all hell breaks loose….just short of an invasion. Obama will lose to McCain and then we've got 8 more years of total monopoly.”
Emir: “Sounds good. I'll tell my people. Give my best to the wife.”
Dubya: “You too. And tell Salem I'm having a BBQ next week at the ranch.”
*******
The thing that tipped us off to being almost 100% certain this is what's going on is with the predictably increasing reports of tension in Iran on BigMedia was a curious report they made last week or so about how Iran was going to dig about 30-40,000 graves along their borders to bury the (presumed/implied American) dead soldiers to comply with the Geneva convention and not demean the memory of their fallen enemies.
Which of course was a psychological scare tactic, at its worst, aimed directly and purposefully at placing fear in the hearts of the American people about a conflict with Iran. That would N-E-V-E-R be allowed in mainstream BigMedia to reach the ears of the public without having a GOP-political purpose behind it. N-E-V-E-R.
It seems that there is an internal fight going on about what the US should do.Sy Hersh says that the reason he got so much information from the militray is that they are dead set agianst an attack and they hoped the leaks would help.
The US special forces inside Iran are doing much more than just spying, which flies in the face of assurances that we don't want to topple the regime. That gives Iran every incentive to not agree to the EU/US offer. It almost seems like some people want to provoke a war, regardless of what the prospects are.
This is exactly the kind of thinking that led to the invasion of iraq. It's a nightmare to see it dare to speak in public again even before the previous disaster is mopped up. I think these folks are on a suicide mission and want to take everyone else with them.
I'm sure it'll spell the end of Israel in the proces, as well/
Recenly a CIA operative of 20 years was fired for not doctoring reports he submitted showing that there was no indication of nuclear capability from Iran.
His bosses wanted a report to justify invasion-talk, and his unwillingness to lie to the American people cost him his job…just like all those attorneys Bush/Cheney fired…they were unwilling to commit treason on behalf of the pResident and his cohorts.
It all fits in with the phone call scenario I posted above…
Because the joint chiefs and Gates and congress are against Bush and cheney and their desire to attack Iran, I think B and C have been manipulating the Israelis and filling them with all kinds of garbage from bogus intelligence, ect. to get them to attack instead.
I really think they are ginning things up over there in Israel because our guys are not giving them their way.
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