Israel, the US, Iran and nuclear warheads

An air strike by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities will shatter both Washington’s credibility in world affairs and its own long term security.

The intensified chatter that Israel may act before the November election or soon afterwards should be cause for consternation to all its supporters.

Whatever Teheran’s rhetoric of peace, we should work on the premise that it is covertly developing nuclear warheads capable of reaching as far as Western Europe within 5-15 years. Undoubtedly, that threatens Israel’s existence.

But an Israeli solution patterned on the 1980s strike against Saddam Hussein’s nuclear reactors would be folly. This is not because Israel may fail to cripple the facilities but because the level of fear under which it lives currently will increase manifold.

It is hubris to expect that nearly 30 years after that strike, Israel’s enemies remain so intimidated by its military that they will not seek revenge repeatedly.

Were Israel at peace with all its neighbors, Iran would be too isolated diplomatically to retaliate. Instead, Israel’s neighbors are bitter enemies encouraged by its military’s confused performance against the Hezbollah militia which had no air power. They also see its inability to halt suicide bombers and artisanal rockets fired from Gaza and the West Bank.
They have seen the failures of Israel’s allies in Washington and NATO to suppress insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan, who confront those ultra sophisticated armies with light weapons and improvised explosive devices.

The debilitating effects of lengthy wars of attrition should not be discounted. They have repeatedly turned the strong into footnotes of history.

At this time, many governments around the world are Israel’s friends and it is a rich and respected country. However, it is well to remember that the American people are Israel’s only real protectors.

Almost all of Israel’s other friends will stand on the sidelines, whatever their sympathy with its arguments about the justice of its preemptive attack on Iran.
Lumbered by national debt and interminable wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, even the American people may be incapable of giving sustained support in the aftermath when Muslim terrorist vengeance rains upon Israelis week after week for years.

In the short term, nobody has the stomach for another major war if Iran retaliates as promised by blocking the Hormuz Straits through which 40% of Western oil arrives. It may also widen attacks through proxies on US assets in the Gulf kingdoms, Iraq and elsewhere, including Pakistan, Africa, Indonesia and Malaysia.

In international affairs, it is normal for countries, including allies, to take advantage when the powerful start to weaken. Both Israel and America have many rivals waiting for signs of weakness to make economic, diplomatic and, when possible, territorial gains.

Turkey, which is veering towards Islam, may refuse use of its territory despite NATO membership as it did for the invasion of Iraq. It may also cause trouble in Iraq’s Kurdish region to disarm rebels and in oil-rich Kirkuk to prevent Kurds from dominating Turkmen.

Syria will certainly take advantage of Israel’s predicament to retake the Golan Heights and perhaps more. Hezbollah’s Shia militants could grab the superb prize of Beirut, which they almost did a few weeks ago. They may also probe into Israeli territory in the south.

Hamas could break out of Gaza to depose American and Israeli-backed Fatah in the West Bank. Arms smuggling by sea and overland from Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon may become uncontrollable.

On how many fronts could Israelis fight on their own, regardless of their wealth and leading-edge military technologies? In the end, wars are about people and Israel does not have too many of those. In any case, it is populated by human beings not warrior supermen.

Voters in European NATO countries are hardly likely to approve support for an Israeli request for military protection, if it launches an undeclared war of choice by attacking Iran.
Russia, China and India would certainly not enter such a venture. The Sunni Gulf states may quietly withdraw from any secret agreements they have currently with the US to contain Iran.

In the best case scenario, a strike may give Israel some breathing space and may not trigger a wider regional war. But it certainly will not strengthen Israeli security or stop the birth of vengeful enemies.

Judging from the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan, even a crushing defeat may fail to install a new system in Iran. So, Israeli hawks should think through a more candid lens about the legacy they wish to leave to their children.

In any case, politics is an unpredictable process. Perhaps the current Israel-hating Mullahs will have changed by the time Iran develops its nuclear bomb. Then its weapon may become as acceptable as that of Pakistan, India or Israel itself.