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Election 2008: California
We now come to my own home state and the biggest prize of electoral votes in the race for President. While it is not likely to be in play this fall the candidate are still going to spend some time in the state, if only for purposes of showing the flag.
President: California has not voted for a Republican since Ronald Reagan was President and there is no chance that this will change in the near future.
Safe Democrat
House: Only a couple of districts are in play this year and since California has 53 House seats I won’t be listing them individually. Right now 18 Republicans and 33 Democrats seem secure for November.
In the 4th district we have incumbent Republican John Doolittle who was forced to retire under a cloud of scandal. Democrat renominated 2006 candidate Charlie Brown (yeah that’s really his name) who nearly won the seat last time out.
Republicans endured a very nasty primary between moderate Doug Ose and arch conservative Tom McClintock. McClintock won but will have a tough race in the fall. The biggest thing on his side is that the House districts in California are all drawn to favor one party and in this case it is the GOP
Leans Republican
In the 11th District we have Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney is seeking re-election to a second term. McNerney was the Democratic giant killer of the 2006 campaign when he unseated 8 term incumbent Richard Pombo.
Republicans have lined up behind former State Assemblyman Dean Andal. Andal is backed by the party leadership but has some problems with the rank and file who see him as a machine patsy with some questionable ethics.
Like the 4th, the 11th is a GOP leaning district but it has been sliding to the Democrats thanks to the SF Bay part of the district.
Leans Democrat
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3 Responses to “Election 2008: California”
of course the Republicans are doing lousy in California. Californai has fewer whites today than it had in 1990. All of the population gain in California has been due to immigration (legal and mainly illegal) and to high Hispanic birthrates. No state wide Republican candidates stands a chance in such a setting unless they have starred in a bunch of movies.
California demonstrates how the U.S. will effectively become a one party state. As whites become a smaller poriton of the population, the Democratic Party will dominate. The Republicans can either fad away like they have in SF or they can make a deal to keep a few seats safe for Republicans while giving up any input to policy (like the State Republican Party has in California).
However, eventually people will stop voting for candiates in a polical party that have no say in politics. About all a conservative can do these days in California is vote with their feet and move to a state with lower taxes, better schools, and fewer illegal immigrants. The state government does not care about such issues.
SD,
I'm curious.
Are you ever embarrassed by your whites vs 'them' themes?
I'm embarrassed by just reading them.
runasim,
IN 1990 California had 20.5 million whites, IN 2007 the number had dropped to 15.7 while the population rose to over 35 million. There is no way that any conservative population can survive in such an environment.
Also, Democrats love to talk about how Republicans use code terms while their candidate either use code words like Rich when talking to an all black audience or if they are the CBC, they just use to term “White Folks” and leave all pretense out of it.