Election 2008: Arizona

We come now to the home state of GOP nominee John McCain. Traditionally a conservative bastion it has seen a drift to the left over the past decade.

President: In future years this is likely to become a battleground state. The rising Hispanic vote is boosting the Democratic base while the dominance of social conservatives has hurt the GOP with many libertarian minded voters.

However there is such a thing as home state pride and this should be enough to keep the state in the McCain camp for 2008.

Safe Republican

House: Arizona has eight House seats but six of them are fairly quiet for this November. The 2nd, 3rd and 6th seem likely to stick with the GOP while the 4th, 7th and 8th seem just as sure to stick with the Democrats.

In the 1st District things are not as bright for the GOP. This district has a long history of supporting Republicans but has always maintained a fairly liberal social viewpoint. Incumbent Rick Renzi has held the seat for 3 terms but is retiring under a cloud of scandal.

The Democratic candidate is likely to be Former State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick while the GOP is likely to support Sydney Hay, an executive with a trade association.

Given the trend in this district and the fact that Hay is seen as a weak candidate, this seems likely for a pickup

Leans Democrat

In the 5th District, long a GOP seat, incumbent Harold Mitchell is seeking re-election to a second term. The GOP has a crowded primary that includes Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert and businesswoman Susan Bitter Smith.

Unless the GOP manages to unite behind one candidate I do not think they will be able to take this seat back

Leans Democrat

With the first change in party control the Democrats are now +1 in the House. No change yet in Senate or President.