Obama Moves To Center, McCain To The Right?

Are we seeing so many political positioning moves on the part of Democratic Senator Barack Obama and Republican Senator John McCain that the two of them could open up a special road show of “Riverdance?” NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro note the fancy footwork:

But what we find fascinating is that as Obama has moved to the center on some thorny subjects, McCain keeps on making overtures to the right. At his meeting yesterday with social conservatives in Ohio, according to participants, McCain said that he was open to learning more about their opposition to embryonic stem cell research (which he supports), that he would talk more openly about his opposition to gay marriage, and that he would listen seriously to their requests that he choose an anti-abortion running mate (bad news for Tom Ridge?). In modern politics, the formula has always been the same: You curry favor with your base in the primaries and then you tack to the center in the general election. McCain isn’t necessarily following this path. Then again, McCain didn’t win his nomination by running to the right, either. Nothing he’s done this campaign year has been conventional.

And that has been the case this year. Repeatedly, the mainstream and new media have been wrong about what is “going” to happen or even “very likely” to happen — and not just in the case of McCain.

This includes all the speculation about Senator Hillary Clinton returning to a Senate where Democrats might be lukewarm to her. She was reportedly greeted by interns, Democrats and Republicans like a political rock star.

But what do these shifts by the two presumptive party nominees say about what’s going on? This:

1. Obama clearly figures that he can move to the right without losing the votes of progressives, who are among the Big Broom voters who want to sweep the present crew out of office as the top priority. He hopes to reassure defecting Republicans and independent voters and non-progressive Democrats.

2. Obama isn’t too worried about the “threat” posed by I’m-running-everytime Ralph Nader, who recently suggested that Obama wasn’t talking black enough. Nader’s the guy who in 2000 argued that it didn’t matter which party won since there was no difference between them. Perhaps (for good reason) Obama’s polls show Nader’s potential impact is minuscule.

3. McCain feels he has enough credit in the bank with independent swing voters and moderates so he doesn’t have to worry about losing their support if he edges over to the right. This gets down to the question about who is the “real” McCain and so far these voters believe the 2000 version of McCain was real and this one is doing what he has to do to get elected.

4. McCain’s internal numbers likely indicate he has a lingering problem with his party’s base and his problem with conservatives may be worse than Obama’s problem with Hillary Clinton supporters.

5. McCain could be trying to shore up support leaks since Libertarian Presidential candidate Bob Barr could well siphon-off needed votes.

As the NBC crew notes, McCain’s move is unusual for an election year. But neither he nor Obama got where they were by stopping doing what they were doing to listen to the talking heads, new media, old media, but by doing it their way. And that’s unlikely to change. So take all predictions and analysis (including this one) with a grain of salt..